Suchergebnisse

Human error is one of the significant factors contributing to accidents. Traditional human error probability (HEP) studies based on fuzzy number concepts are one of the contributions addressing such a problem. It is particularly useful under circumstances where the lack of data exists. However, the degree of the discriminability of such studies may be questioned when applied under circumstances where experts have adequate information and specific values can be determined in the abscissa of the membership function of linguistic terms, that is, the fuzzy data of each scenario considered are close to each other. In this article, a novel HEP assessment aimed at solving such a difficulty is proposed. Under the framework, the fuzzy data are equipped with linguistic terms and membership values. By establishing a rule base for data combination, followed by the defuzzification and HEP transformation processes, the HEP results can be acquired. The methodology is first examined using a test case consisting of three different scenarios of which the fuzzy data are close to each other. The results generated are compared with the outcomes produced from the traditional fuzzy HEP studies using the same test case. It is concluded that the methodology proposed in this study has a higher degree of the discriminability and is capable of providing more reasonable results. Furthermore, in situations where the lack of data exists, the proposed approach is also capable of providing the range of the HEP results based on different risk viewpoints arbitrarily established as illustrated using a real‐world example.

In this paper we adopt the methodology proposed by Olley and Pakes to estimate total factor productivity in Chinese manufacturing industries using the 2001-2007 annual survey of manufacturing factories. The changes in TFP are decomposed both at the sectoral and the industry level using the Baily-Hulten-Campbell and Syrquin approaches. We find that the nature of growth of Chinese manufacturing has not changed fundamentally during the period, particularly in terms of the high dependence on intermediate inputs. At the inter-industry level, current changes in TFP mainly originate from the increase in the internal TFPs of different industries. Although the influence of structural adjustment on TFP is positive its value is still low, suggesting that significant potential for improvement in productivity in manufacturing through adjustments in structure still exists. At the intra-industry level, the improvement in TFP in different industries can be mainly attributed to the reallocation of resources and output quotas, which results from enhanced competition. (Issues Stud/GIGA)

Government intervention in the form of financial incentives is crucial for translating customer choice into a larger market share for solar thermal applications. The lengthy subsidy programs for solar water heaters in Taiwan have expanded the local market. On a remote island (Kinmen County), the area of solar collectors that are installed per 1000 inhabitants is 192.9 square meters. This study investigates a market-driven mechanism in terms of disposable income, household structure, building type and financial viability. The dual subsidy programs appear to have distorted the local market. The cumulative energy savings for solar water heaters that are installed is misleading because the systems are over-designed and there is a high replacement rate (or shorter service period).