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This study was supported by Office of Naval Research (ONR) grant N00014- 16-1-2858: "PCoD+: Developing widely-applicable models of the population consequences of disturbance". Funding support for tagging was provided by the U.S. Navy's ONR and Living Marine542 Resources (LMR) program, the Chief of Naval Operations' Energy and Environmental Readiness Division and the NOAA Fisheries Ocean Acoustics Program544 (see Joyce et al. (2020) for details). Hawai'i field efforts were funded by the U.S. Navy (Pacific Fleet, LMR) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center). Field efforts were supported by grants from the U.S. Navy's LMR and N45 programs. ; Assessing the patterns of wildlife attendance to specific areas is relevant across many fundamental and applied ecological studies, particularly when animals are at risk of being exposed to stressors within or outside the boundaries of those areas. Marine mammals are increasingly being exposed to human activities that may cause behavioral and physiological changes, including military exercises using active sonars. Assessment of the population-level consequences of anthropogenic disturbance requires robust and efficient tools to quantify the levels of aggregate exposure for individuals in a population over biologically relevant time frames. We propose a discrete-space, continuous-time approach to estimate individual transition rates across the boundaries of an area of interest, informed by telemetry data collected with uncertainty. The approach allows inferring the effect of stressors on transition rates, the progressive return to baseline movement patterns, and any difference among individuals. We apply the modeling framework to telemetry data from Blainville's beaked whale (Mesoplodon densirostris) tagged in the Bahamas at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC), an area used by the U.S. Navy for fleet readiness training. We show that transition rates changed as a result of exposure to sonar exercises in the area, ...

Funding: Office of Naval Research (GrantNumber(s): N00014-19-1-2464). ; As ecosystems transform under climate change and expanding human activities, multidisciplinary integration of empirical research, conceptual frameworks and modelling methods is required to predict, monitor and manage the cascading effects on wildlife populations. For example, exposure to anthropogenic noise can lead to changes in the behaviour and physiology of individual marine mammals, but management is complicated by uncertainties on the long-term effects at a population level. We build on a decade of diverse efforts to demonstrate the strengths of integrating research on multiple stressors for assessing population-level effects. Using the case study of blue whales exposed to military sonar in the eastern north Pacific, we model how behavioural responses and environmental effects induced by climate change affect female survival and reproductive success. Environmental changes were predicted to severely affect vital rates, while the current regime of sonar activities was not. Simulated disturbance had a stronger effect on reproductive success than adult survival, as predicted by life-history theory. We show that information on prey resources is critical for robust predictions, as are data on baseline behavioural patterns, energy budgets, body condition and contextual responses to noise. These results will support effective management of the interactions between sonar operations and blue whales in the study area, while providing pragmatic guidance for future data collection to reduce key uncertainties. Our study provides important lessons for the successful integration of multidisciplinary research to inform the assessment of the effects of noise and other anthropogenic stressors on marine predator populations in the context of a changing environment. ; Publisher PDF ; Peer reviewed