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Abstract. Coastal cities are under rising pressure to adapt to climate change. They suffer from the severe effects of increased frequencies and intensities of coastal hazards, particularly flooding, while oftentimes continuing to sprawl into hazard-exposed areas and grow beyond the pace of sufficient infrastructure development. Even though these problems have been quite well understood for a while, there is still comparatively little knowledge and scientific assessment of the solution space, i.e., on the options available for adaptation and the ways in which they are being perceived, framed and evaluated in the scientific literature. Focusing on Jakarta, this study presents findings from a systematic assessment of peer-reviewed scientific literature on the adaptation solution space with regard to current and future flooding. Jakarta is chosen as a case study since it is among the cities with the highest flood risk and adaptation pressure globally while also being one of the most heavily researched coastal cities in this regard, certainly in the Global South. Based on a structured keyword search, we assess 339 articles. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards hard protection against flooding, while measures to accommodate flooding or retreat from exposed areas are less widely considered in the scientific debate. Soft adaptation measures for the reduction of social vulnerability receive less attention in the literature than those measures targeting the taming of flood hazards, often through engineering solutions. Likewise, hybrid adaptation approaches, which combine soft and hard measures in a complementary way, are only rarely considered. Looking into the future, the findings suggest that despite the importance of hard flood protection as a main adaptation solution in Jakarta, other fields of the solution space deserve increased scientific attention. This relates in particular to urgently needed feasibility and effectiveness assessments of ecosystems-based solutions for flood mitigation and adaptation options targeting social vulnerability. While the empirical results are specific to Jakarta, heuristic observations from research on other coastal cities suggest that similar scoping exercises of the predominantly perceived solution space might be of relevance in many cities beyond Jakarta.

Coastal cities are under increasing pressure to adapt to climate change. They suffer from the severe effects of increased frequencies and intensities of coastal hazards, particularly flooding, whilst oftentimes continuing to sprawl into hazard exposed areas and grow beyond the pace of sufficient infrastructure development. Even though these problems have been quite well understood for a while, there is still comparatively little knowledge on the solution space, i.e. on the options available for adaptation and the ways in which they are being perceived, framed and evaluated. Focusing on Jakarta as one of the cities with the highest flood risk and adaptation pressure globally, this study presents findings from a systematic review of scientific English literature on mitigation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city's chronic flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft adaptation options as well as measures to live with flooding or retreat from exposed areas are less widely considered. This appears to not only stem from the government's traditional preference for engineered flood protection measures but also from a bias of scientific analyses towards focusing on understanding the hazard and analyzing engineered flood protection measures, while giving much less attention to soft adaptation options and community-led adaptation focusing among others on social and natural capital, empowerment and capacity building. Similarly, hybrid adaptation approaches, which combine soft and hard measures in a complementary way, are only rarely considered. Looking into the future, the findings suggest that a more integrative scientific approach would be helpful to populate and balance the considered solution space. Jakarta is one of the most heavily researched coastal cities worldwide and lessons from Jakarta are hence of global reach and importance. Future science on the city can play a significant role in piloting new approaches on the pressing frontiers in adaptation research. But increased attention is needed on current epistemic gaps.

The Paris Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals, the Sendai Framework and the New Urban Agenda share a vision of global sustainable development, with several overlapping goals and targets. However, these agendas are often treated along sectoral boundaries leading to highly branched implementation. Underusing potential synergies is not only a burden for governments due to the costs of redundancies and inefficiency but can also hinder collective goals and lead to inter-agenda trade-offs. Despite growing attention on policy coherence in research and policy, existing literature fails to explain why it is so hard to achieve despite widespread recognition of its theoretical value. Based on a literature review and fieldwork in Mexico, our research focuses on the perception of the people in charge of operationalizing the agendas. We develop a typology of non-monetary costs and benefits that encompasses the alternative scenarios of 1) increased coherence in the implementation of the agendas in Mexico and 2) a business-as-usual scenario. Results challenge the dominant approach that focuses on binary policy coherence/incoherence analysis, by identifying also perceived benefits of incoherence and costs of building coherence. They also highlight the importance of often overlooked barriers to cross-sectoral and cross-scalar collaboration driven by institutional arrangements and work culture. The resulting typology differentiates drivers and manifestations of (in)coherence from their impacts on institutions and society. From this, we derive that a scenario of increased coherence in the implementation of the Post-2015 Agenda represents net gains to society and only relative losses to institutions, once the current costs of incoherence are discounted. However, the process of building policy coherence is beyond easy fixes, requiring structural change. Otherwise, institutions risk falling into a cosmetic level of coherence that is both costly and ineffective.

PurposeEnhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.Design/methodology/approachThe research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.FindingsThe paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.Originality/valueThe value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.