Suchergebnisse

BACKGROUND: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. METHODS: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (R(c)), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- R(e)(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. RESULTS: The estimation outcomes indicate that R(c) is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20–3.64) and R(e)(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel ...

Event attribution, which determines how anthropogenic climate change has affected the likelihood of certain types of extreme events, is of broad interest to industries, governments, and the public. Attribution results can be highly dependent on the definition of the event and the characteristics assessed, which are part of framing the attribution question. Despite a widely acknowledged sensitivity to framing, little work has been done to document the impacts on attribution and the resulting implications. Here, we use a perfect‐model approach and large ensembles of coupled climate‐model simulations to demonstrate how event attribution depends on the spatial and temporal scales used to define the event. In general, stronger attribution is found for events defined over longer time scales and larger spatial scales due to enhanced signal‐to‐noise ratios. With strong warming trends, most regions see large changes in the likelihood of temperature extremes at all scales, even at low levels of global mean temperature increase. For precipitation extremes, spatial scale plays a strong role. It may be possible to attribute changes in likelihood for extreme precipitation events defined over larger scales, but greater levels of global warming are often required before it is possible to attribute changes in the likelihood of smaller‐scale precipitation events. Care must be taken to understand the scales used in event attribution, in order to properly understand the results. ; ISSN:2328-4277

Background: Current point-of-care tests (POCT) for syphilis, based on the detection of Treponema pallidum (TP) total antibodies, have limited capacity in distinguishing between active and past/treated syphilis. We report the development and early evaluation of a new prototype POCT based on the detection of TP-IgA antibodies, a novel biomarker for active syphilis. Methods: The TP-IgA POCT (index test) was developed in response to the World Health Organisation (WHO) target product profile (TPP) for a POCT for confirmatory syphilis testing. Two sub-studies were conducted consecutively using 458 pre-characterised stored plasma samples in China (sub-study one, addressing the criteria for the WHO TPP), and 503 venous blood samples collected from pregnant/postpartum women in South Africa (sub-study two, addressing potential clinical utility). Performance of the index test was assessed against standard laboratory-based serology using a combination of treponemal (TPHA) and non-treponemal (rapid plasma reagin [RPR]) tests. Findings: In sub-study one, the index test demonstrated 96·1% (95%CI=91·7%-98·5%) sensitivity and 84·7% (95%CI=80·15–88·6%) specificity for identification of active syphilis (TPHA positive, RPR positive). It correctly identified 71% (107/150) samples of past-treated syphilis (TPHA positive, RPR negative). In sub-study two, the index test achieved 100% (95%CI=59%-100%) sensitivity for active syphilis and correctly identified all nine women with past syphilis. Interpretation: The TP-IgA POCT has met the WHO TPP for a POCT for diagnosis of active syphilis and demonstrated its potential utility in a clinical setting. Future studies are warranted to evaluate field performance of the final manufactured test. Funding: Saving Lives at Birth: Grand Challenge for Development, Thrasher Research Fund, and the Victorian Government Operational Infrastructure Scheme.

BACKGROUND: Current point-of-care tests (POCT) for syphilis, based on the detection of Treponema pallidum (TP) total antibodies, have limited capacity in distinguishing between active and past/treated syphilis. We report the development and early evaluation of a new prototype POCT based on the detection of TP-IgA antibodies, a novel biomarker for active syphilis. METHODS: The TP-IgA POCT (index test) was developed in response to the World Health Organisation (WHO) target product profile (TPP) for a POCT for confirmatory syphilis testing. Two sub-studies were conducted consecutively using 458 pre-characterised stored plasma samples in China (sub-study one, addressing the criteria for the WHO TPP), and 503 venous blood samples collected from pregnant/postpartum women in South Africa (sub-study two, addressing potential clinical utility). Performance of the index test was assessed against standard laboratory-based serology using a combination of treponemal (TPHA) and non-treponemal (rapid plasma reagin [RPR]) tests. FINDINGS: In sub-study one, the index test demonstrated 96·1% (95%CI=91·7%-98·5%) sensitivity and 84·7% (95%CI=80·15–88·6%) specificity for identification of active syphilis (TPHA positive, RPR positive). It correctly identified 71% (107/150) samples of past-treated syphilis (TPHA positive, RPR negative). In sub-study two, the index test achieved 100% (95%CI=59%-100%) sensitivity for active syphilis and correctly identified all nine women with past syphilis. INTERPRETATION: The TP-IgA POCT has met the WHO TPP for a POCT for diagnosis of active syphilis and demonstrated its potential utility in a clinical setting. Future studies are warranted to evaluate field performance of the final manufactured test. FUNDING: Saving Lives at Birth: Grand Challenge for Development, Thrasher Research Fund, and the Victorian Government Operational Infrastructure Scheme.

Background: Current point-of-care tests (POCT) for syphilis, based on the detection of Treponema pallidum (TP) total antibodies, have limited capacity in distinguishing between active and past/treated syphilis. We report the development and early evaluation of a new prototype POCT based on the detection of TP-IgA antibodies, a novel biomarker for active syphilis. Methods: The TP-IgA POCT (index test) was developed in response to the World Health Organisation (WHO) target product profile (TPP) for a POCT for confirmatory syphilis testing. Two sub-studies were conducted consecutively using 458 pre-characterised stored plasma samples in China (sub-study one, addressing the criteria for the WHO TPP), and 503 venous blood samples collected from pregnant/postpartum women in South Africa (sub-study two, addressing potential clinical utility). Performance of the index test was assessed against standard laboratory-based serology using a combination of treponemal (TPHA) and non-treponemal (rapid plasma reagin [RPR]) tests. Findings: In sub-study one, the index test demonstrated 96·1% (95%CI=91·7%-98·5%) sensitivity and 84·7% (95%CI=80·15–88·6%) specificity for identification of active syphilis (TPHA positive, RPR positive). It correctly identified 71% (107/150) samples of past-treated syphilis (TPHA positive, RPR negative). In sub-study two, the index test achieved 100% (95%CI=59%-100%) sensitivity for active syphilis and correctly identified all nine women with past syphilis. Interpretation: The TP-IgA POCT has met the WHO TPP for a POCT for diagnosis of active syphilis and demonstrated its potential utility in a clinical setting. Future studies are warranted to evaluate field performance of the final manufactured test. Funding: Saving Lives at Birth: Grand Challenge for Development, Thrasher Research Fund, and the Victorian Government Operational Infrastructure Scheme.