Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Management of adverse health-related effects from heat waves requires comprehensive and accessible sources of information. This paper examines the effects of temperature and air pollution on human health and identifies areas with increased occurrence of emergency ambulance dispatches in the city of Würzburg, Bavaria, Germany, and discusses the applicability for health care interventions and urban planning. An overdispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine and predict the association and potential lag of exposure between temperature, air pollution, and three types of emergency ambulance dispatches during the study period from 2011 to 2019. A linear model was used to estimate heat-wave effects. A line density function was used to identify areas with increased occurrence of dispatches. Significant effects of temperature were detected for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases after exceeding a threshold temperature. The exposure–response relationships showed an increased relative risk up to two days after exposure for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases. Results indicate a significant association between presence of heat waves and cardiovascular diseases with up to 17% (95% confidence interval: 5.9%–30.0%) increased relative risk on a heat-wave day relative to a non-heat-wave day. Dispatches for cardiovascular diseases occur more often in areas with a high population and building density, especially in summer. The analyses identified hotspots of heat-related dispatches in areas with increased population and building density and provides baseline information for interventions in future urban planning and public health care management based on data commonly available even in small cities.

Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how authorities in even medium- and small-sized cities can assess health impacts of heat stress or air pollution using free accessible emergency ambulance data and software to incorporate the outcomes in their spatial planning or health care management. This is important as ongoing climate change requires all urban communities to adapt and reduce adverse impacts of climate change and air pollution. Our results show that extreme heat leads to increased emergency ambulance dispatches in a medium-sized city in Germany and provide a spatial overview of where health care interventions and urban planning can focus to mitigate adverse effects.

AbstractHeat waves are increasingly common in many countries across the globe, and also in Germany, where this study is set. Heat poses severe health risks, especially for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children. This case study explores visitors' behavior and perceptions during six weekends in the summer of 2018 at a six-month open-air horticultural show. Data from a face-to-face survey (n = 306) and behavioral observations (n = 2750) were analyzed via correlation analyses, ANOVA, and multiple regression analyses. Differences in weather perception, risk awareness, adaptive behavior, and activity level were observed between rainy days (maximum daily temperature < 25°C), warm summer days (25 - 30°C), and hot days (> 30°C). Respondents reported a high level of heat risk awareness, but most (90 %) were unaware of actual heat warnings. During hot days, more adaptive measures were reported and observed. Older respondents reported taking the highest number of adaptive measures. We observed the highest level of adaptation in children, but they also showed the highest activity level. Based on our results we discuss how to facilitate individual adaptation to heat stress at open-air events by taking the heterogeneity of visitors into account. In order to mitigate negative health outcomes for citizens in the future, we argue for tailored risk communication aimed at vulnerable groups.

The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes. [...]

The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes. [...]

Abstract. Pokhara (ca. 850 m a.s.l.), Nepal's second-largest city, lies at the foot of
the Higher Himalayas and has more than tripled its population in the past
3 decades. Construction materials are in high demand in rapidly expanding built-up areas, and several informal settlements cater to unregulated
sand and gravel mining in the Pokhara Valley's main river, the Seti Khola.
This river is fed by the Sabche glacier below Annapurna III (7555 m a.s.l.), some 35 km upstream of the city, and traverses one of the steepest
topographic gradients in the Himalayas. In May 2012 a sudden flood caused
>70 fatalities and intense damage along this river and rekindled
concerns about flood risk management. We estimate the flow dynamics and
inundation depths of flood scenarios using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System).
We simulate the potential impacts of peak discharges from 1000 to 10 000 m3 s−1 on land cover based on high-resolution Maxar
satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap data (buildings and road network). We
also trace the dynamics of two informal settlements near Kaseri and Yamdi
with high potential flood impact from RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google
Earth imagery of the past 2 decades. Our hydrodynamic simulations
highlight several sites of potential hydraulic ponding that would largely
affect these informal settlements and sites of sand and gravel mining. These
built-up areas grew between 3- and 20-fold, thus likely raising local
flood exposure well beyond changes in flood hazard. Besides these drastic
local changes, about 1 % of Pokhara's built-up urban area and essential
rural road network is in the highest-hazard zones highlighted by our flood
simulations. Our results stress the need to adapt early-warning strategies
for locally differing hydrological and geomorphic conditions in this rapidly
growing urban watershed.

Natural hazards pose a threat to human health and life. In Germany, where the research for this thesis was conducted, numerous weather extremes occurred in the recent past that caused high numbers of fatalities and huge financial losses. The focus of this research is centred around two relevant natural hazards: heat stress and flooding. Preventing negative health impacts and deaths, as well as structural and monetary damage is the purpose of risk management and this requires citizens to adapt as well. Risk communication is implemented to foster people's risk perception and motivate individual adaptation. However, methods of risk and crisis communication are often not evaluated in a structured manner. Much interdisciplinary research exists on both risk perception and adaptation, however, not much is known on the connection between the two. Furthermore, the existing research on risk communication is often not theory-driven and its impact on individual adaptation and risk perception is not thoroughly documented. [...]

AbstractThis paper is a communication from the corresponding symposium at the Global Land Project Open Science Meeting, Berlin, March 2014. We explored the assumption that the ecosystem services-(ES) concept has the potential to support communication and collaboration between actors in land use planning. If true, the concept could facilitate collaborative planning processes. We analyse how to evolve a planning context in which governance networks at the local landscape level gain importance in decision making, while the central government delegates power. From case studies presented during the symposium we learned that the ES-concept has been explored for application in local land use planning around the world. However, whether ES are recognized as a useful planning concept depends on individual actor preferences and cultural and contextual factors, such as the actual nature-human relationship and gender differences. Also, successful application requires the support of novel assessment, design and visualization tools, which are designed to foster collaboration and social learning. The potential of the concept to contribute to collaborative relationships needs further investigation.

Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.