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Movements in long‐term interest rates Granger‐cause movements in the target federal funds rate, but not vice versa, during 1990–2001. This implies that changes in the monetary policy stance, as measured by the target rate, are predicted by the bond market. Moreover, even innovations to the target rate have little effect on long‐term interest rates. The policy instrument seems to be responding to information that is already impounded in the bond market. In sharp contrast, during an earlier period, changes in the target federal funds rate are mostly unanticipated by the bond market, and innovations to the policy target have a large and significant effect on long‐term interest rate. (JEL E52, E43)

AbstractThis essay, one of the two parts of my research on Shang militarism, focuses on Shang military rituals and war preparations. I tackle issues such as the Shang king's way of decision-making in regard to battles and military actions, the Shang communications system and logistics network, and the details of how the Shang produced grains and meats. Finally, I argue that careful scrutiny of the excavated buildings at Yanshi city, an early Shang capital before Anyang, strongly suggests that the Shang excelled at defense as well. In contrast to the first part of my research, which relied on secondary materials published by modern Chinese scholars, in the present essay I utilize published collections of oracle bone inscriptions. I have analyzed more than one hundred inscriptions and also discuss several individual graphs in order to ground my arguments.

Abstract
A series of new archaeological excavations in China has enriched the study of ancient Shang and Zhou history. Many Chinese scholars have devoted considerable research to the recently deciphered oracle bone inscriptions, which have illuminated the military and religious practices of the Shang in greater detail. Their achievements enable us to arrive at new understandings about the processes, purposes, and strategies employed by the Shang people to expand their territory. This article explores the structure of the Great Settlement of the Shang and what life was like in the late Shang period. Also, it intends to shed new light on the wars between the Shang and their enemies, including their military arrangements, the major generals of the Shang king, and their strategies for building alliances. Finally, I argue that the chief purpose of Shang expansion to the south was to procure a supply of a key natural resource, copper.

State-space models as an important mathematical tool has been widely used in many different fields. This edited collection explores recent theoretical developments of the models and their applications in economics and finance. The book includes nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, regime-switching and hidden Markov models, continuous- or discrete-time state processes, and models of equally-spaced or irregularly-spaced (discrete or continuous) observations. The contributed chapters are divided into four parts. The first part is on Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning in Nonlinear State-Space Models. The second part focuses on the application of Linear State-Space Models in Macroeconomics and Finance. The third part deals with Hidden Markov Models, Regime Switching and Mathematical Finance and the fourth part is on Nonlinear State-Space Models for High Frequency Financial Data. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers studying state-space modeling in economics, statistics, and mathematics, as well as to finance professionals. Yong Zeng is a professor in Department of Mathematics and Statistics at University of Missouri at Kansas City. His main research interest includes mathematical finance, financial econometrics, stochastic nonlinear filtering, and Bayesian statistical analysis. Notably, he developed the statistical analysis via filtering for financial ultra-high frequency data, where the model can be viewed as a random-arrival-time state space model. He has published in Mathematical Finance, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Applied Mathematical Finance, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, among others. He held visiting associate professor positions at Princeton University and the University of Tennessee. He received his B.S. from Fudan University in 1990, M.S. from University of Georgia in 1994, and Ph.D. from University of Wisconsin at Madison in 1999. All degrees were in statistics. Shu Wu is an associate professor in Department of Economics at University of Kansas. His main research areas are empirical macroeconomics and finance. He has held visiting positions at Federal Reserve Bank at Kansas City, City University of Hong Kong. His publications have appeared in Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Journal of International F ...