Suchergebnisse

The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of "coronacrisis", and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.

The global economy is in recession due to the pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. Russia's GDP in 2020 fell by 3.1% in relation to the level of 2019, so that the decline was more moderate than in 1998 (–5.3%) and 2009 (–7.8%). In the coming years, the Russian economy will have to recover and enter a new long-term growth path. At what expense and in which industries will this happen? Based on the experience of previous crises and using industry accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data, we have examined possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the crisis of 2020. By analogy with the recovery after 2008—2009, it is likely to be associated with increased demand for raw materials on world markets and the reaction of the Russian oil and gas complex. Stagnation after 2008—2009 is due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in the expanded mining complex (EMC), as well as the cessation of technological catching-up. Growth stimulation measures should include increasing the efficiency of the EMC, providing the adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving existing adaptation channels in times of crisis — for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains. In the long run sustainable growth assumes diversification of the economy.