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ABSTRACTMigration flows around the U.S. have shown a great deal of temporal and geographical differentiation over the past few decades. However, the recent downturn in the U.S. economy provides a renewed motivation to explore the relationship between the macro‐economy and interstate migration. To address this issue, in this paper patterns of interstate migration are analyzed using IRS data and several migration efficiency measures for 18 2‐year time periods, 1988–2006. Included in the analysis is an examination of the relationship between system migration and economic change, structural changes in the migration system over time (national and state level), and changes in the geography of state‐level migration efficiency rates. As might be expected, the two full business cycles that occurred over this time period saw significant short‐term changes in migration flows, although the economic downturn of 2001‐02 may indicate more fundamental changes in the migration system.

Economic base analysis is frequently used to describe employment profiles and to predict project-related impacts in small communities. Considerable evidence suggests, however, that economic base multipliers should be estimated from survey data and not from shortcut methods. In this paper two competing versions of the economic base model are developed and then these two models are estimated by use of the Arizona community data set. In both cases, marginal multiplier estimates, controlled for transfer payments, are generated for ten individual sectors in five different types of communities. Results from these two disaggregate economic base models are assessed and then compared with results provided earlier by more aggregate models. The better of these two new models closely resembles the popular input—output model.

There is now wide realization that US nonmetropolitan areas are remarkably heterogeneous. Consequently the estimation of employment multipliers should address the diverse attributes and settings of these regions. In response, in this paper we outline a means for estimating cross-sectional economic base multipliers that vary from one place to another. Multipliers of this sort can be used to assess the impacts of new projects but should not be used to forecast growth. The discussion focuses on America's micropolitan counties, which are those significant urban clusters located outside of the nation's metropolitan areas. The multiplier estimates account for numerous contextual conditions of both the natural and human-created variety. All estimates are made from employment data pooled across the 1980, 1990, and 2000 censuses. Micropolitan counties with high human capital, low specialization, abundant natural amenities, and isolated locations have relatively more local employment and therefore larger multipliers.

ABSTRACT  Economic and demographic restructuring, along with the increasing desirability of environmental amenities, have driven growth in the eight‐state region of the Rocky Mountain West to extraordinary levels in recent decades. While social scientists have developed a solid conceptual understanding of the processes driving growth and change in the region, the broad nature of the land use outcomes associated with in‐migration has not received nearly as much scholarly attention. This article initiates an in‐depth empirical investigation on the magnitude, nature, and spatial variation of land use change in the Rocky Mountain West over the 1982‐1997 time period. Data from the USDA's National Resources Inventory reveals that the conversion of landscapes from rural to urban types of land uses varies significantly from place to place, not only in terms of total land developed, but also with respect to how population pressures and a number of other local characteristics of counties manifest themselves in the spatial pattern of growth.

ABSTRACTInterindustry employment requirements are examined in nonmetropolitan communities ranging in population size between 1,000 and 15,000. A ten‐sector economic base model is first used to estimate the demand for nonbasic employment in five different functional types of communities. A new and improved method for community impact assessment is then outlined. Here a distance‐weighting procedure is applied to the various type‐specific estimates of nonbasic employment so that a composite employment requirements matrix can be calculated for any study community. Finally, postimpact interindustry requirements are decomposed into two effects: preimpact employment requirements plus nonbasic employment shifts reflecting structural change. All estimates and findings are based on the Arizona Community Data Set.

Adjustment models are used increasingly to analyze population and employment changes in regional economies. However, questions remain about the most appropriate geographic scales and time lags for these models. In this paper we estimate a well-known adjustment model for a recent 25-year period in the USA. Regional population and employment changes (levels and densities) are examined at three scales (states, Bureau of Economic Analysis regions, counties) using various time lags (one to ten years). Two-stage least squares regression estimates, based on Regional Economic Information System data running between 1969 and 1994, are generated and discussed. Analysis is restricted to the core relationships between population and employment; the roles of other exogenous variables, normally included in adjustment models, are not considered. Instead, concern is focused on issues such as stability and directional causality of the interacting population—employment systems. Some brief suggestions regarding future research conclude the paper.