Suchergebnisse

Det stadigt mere presserende behov for at tackle klimaændringer nødvendiggør en hidtil uset, samordnet omstilling til energikilder med lavt CO2-indhold. Den fortsatte vækst i det globale mobilitetsbehov, kombineret med en langvarig afhængighed af fossile energiressourcer, udgør en betydelig udfordring for at sikre transportsektorens bæredygtighed i fremtiden. Dette kræver handlinger til fremme af den teknologiske udvikling, etablering af lovgivningsmæssige rammer og støtte af sociale ændringer, for at reducere effekten af mobilitetsbehovet på energiforbrug og miljø. Usikkerheden omkring den fremtidige udvikling af dette indbyrdes afhængige sociotekniske system indebærer, at den fremtidige systemkonfiguration ikke kan forudsiges, men snarere formes ved at indlede og understøtte scenariediskussioner blandt interessenter og beslutningstagere. Denne proces kan klarlægge egnede interventioner, gennemførelsesbarrierer, potentielle synergier, forventet accept og effektivitet af politiske instrumenter. Denne ph.d.-afhandling bygger på forskningsområdet for energisystemanalyse, for at udforske udvikling af robust energi og transportplanlægning. Afhandlingen analyserer det danske energi- og transportsystem med bidrag til to hovedkomponenter: (i) integreret energi og transportmodellering, og (ii) kollaborativ scenarieudvikling og policy analyse. En kritisk gennemgang af strukturen af eksisterende modeller inden for energi- og transportsektoren ligger til grund for denne forskning. Fordele, potentialer og udfordringer for hver modeltype identificeres såvel som parametrisering af nøglefunktioner inden for transportsektoren med fokus på repræsentation af adfærd. Ved at udnytte styrken af energisystemmodellering til afdækning, vurdering og sammenligning af integrerede systemkonfigurationer bidrager denne afhandling til videreudvikling af energisystemmodellen TIMES-DK. Der udføres specifikt en teknologi karakterisering af brændstofproduktionsteknologier, og repræsentationen af brændstofforsyningskæder udvides. For restbiomasse introduceres miljøhensyn, og en omfattende ressourcevurdering udføres ved linke med en rumlig og tidsmæssigt detaljeret kraft- og varmemodel. Den udførte socioøkonomiske optimering af restbiomasse afslører potentialet i forgasningsruten med efterfølgende Fischer-Tropsch-syntese til produktion af biobrændstoffer til forsyning af den tunge transport. Muligheden for at genvinde overskydende varme i fjernvarmeanlægget og tilbagevendende bioaske til genopretning af jordnæringsstoffer og kulstof på landbrugsområdet bidrager til de positive resultater ved denne teknologivej. Den anden del af denne ph.d.-afhandling beriger udviklingen af sammenhængende policy relaterede energi- og transportscenarier, ved at indlejre kvantitativ energi og transportmodellering i en iterativ participatoriske proces. For det første udforskes de drivende parametres rolle i brugen af kvalitative og kvantitative værktøjer til scenarieopbygning og analyse. Hermed identificeres parametre med potentiel stor indvirkning og usikkerhed om, efterfulgt af oversættelsen til modelattributter og kvantificering as disse. For det andet, ved at anerkende behovet for en fælles forståelse og fortolkning af fremtidige scenarier, udvikles et scenarie værktøj til at understøtte kommunikationen mellem det akademiske og tekniske perspektiv og den faktuelle energiog transportpolitik. For det tredje anvendes værktøjet til at vurdere virkningen af kombinerede teknologi og reguleringsinstrumenter for energi- og transportsektoren til overholdelse af emissionsreduktionsmål. Den avancerede participatoriske tilgang muliggør kombination af et sæt konsekvente antagelser om det fremtidige energi- og transportsystem og kvantitativ vurdering af effekten af disse ændringer på modelresultater. De positive konsekvenser for politisk beslutningstagning omfatter en mere gennemsigtig og demokratisk diskussion omkring systemændringer. Desuden fremmes den gensidige læring og bevidsthed, både ud fra perspektivet om at fremme modeludvikling og vedrørende anerkendelse af kritiske aspekter af energisystemet. Fra et modelleringssynspunkt bidrager interessenternes input til validering af antagelser og til bestemmelse af det mulige spektrum af politiske forandringer. Modelresultater af den politiske analyse illustrerer den højere effekt af markedssignaler i form af skatter og subsidier til overholdelse af energi- og miljømål. Begrænsninger af fossile brændstoffer er også effektive for at reducere CO2-udslippet i landtransport, når man vurderer indførelses- og pensioneringsprofiler af køretøjer. Desuden kan den integrerede multisektorale model informere om synergi og konkurrence dynamikker mellem politiske instrumenter til understøttelse af udformning af sammenhængende politiske tiltag. ; As the urgency of tackling climate change becomes apparent, the transition to lowcarbon energy systems requires unparalleled and concerted efforts. The continuous growth in global mobility demand, coupled with a long-lived dependence on fossil energy resources, poses a significant challenge in ensuring the future sustainability of the transport sector. This calls for actions advancing technological developments, establishing regulatory frameworks and promoting social changes to reduce the impact of mobility demand on energy use and environment. At the same time, uncertainty around the evolution of this interdependent socio-technical system implies that its future configuration cannot be forecasted, but rather shaped, by initiating and supporting scenario discussions among stakeholders and policy-makers. This process in turn can clarify suitable interventions, implementation barriers, potential synergies, expected acceptability and effectiveness of policy instruments. This Ph.D. thesis builds on the research field of energy systems analysis to explore the formulation of robust energy and transport planning. This study investigates the case of the Danish energy and transport system, bringing advancements to two main components: (i) integrated energy and transport modelling, and (ii) collaborative scenario development and policy analysis. A critical review of the structure of existing models covering the energy and transport sectors lays the basis for this research. Advantages, potentials and challenges of each model type are identified, as well as the parameterization of key features within the transport sector, with focus on behaviour representation. Harnessing the strength of energy system modelling in uncovering, assessing and comparing integrated system configurations, this thesis further develops the optimization energy system model TIMES-DK, by performing a technology characterisation of fuel production technologies and by extending the representation of fuel supply chains. In particular, for residual biomass, environmental considerations are introduced and a comprehensive resource assessment is performed through soft-linkage with a spatially and temporally detailed power and heat model. The performed socio-economic optimization on residual biomass reveals the attractiveness of the gasification route with subsequent Fischer–Tropsch synthesis for the production of biofuels to supply the heavy segments of the transport sector. The possibility of recovering the excess heat from the plants in the district heating grid and returning bioashes for restoring soil nutrients and carbon in the agriculture fields contributes to the feasibility of this technology option. The second component of this Ph.D. thesis enriches the development of coherent and policy-relevant energy and transport scenarios, by embedding quantitative energy and transport modelling within an iterative and participatory process. First, the use of driving forces in bridging qualitative and quantitative tools for scenario creation and analysis is explored, hereby identifying the drivers with potential high impact and uncertainty on the future system, followed by the translation into model attributes and their quantification. Second, recognising the need for a shared understanding and interpretation of future scenarios, a Scenario Interface tool is developed to support the communication and connect the academic and technical perspective with the energy and transport policy arena. Third, the tool is applied to assess the impact and effectiveness of combined technology and regulatory measures for the energy and transport sectors in complying with emission reduction targets. The advanced participatory approach brings the advantage of simultaneously combining a set of consistent assumptions on the future energy and transport system, and quantitatively assessing the impact of those changes on model results. The positive implications for policy-making include a more transparent and democratic discussion around system transitions, along with favouring mutual learning and awareness, both from the perspective of advancing model development and the recognition of critical aspects of the energy system. From a modelling viewpoint, stakeholders' inputs contribute to the validation of assumptions and in determining the feasible spectrum of policy change. The policy analysis highlights the higher impact of market signals in the form of taxes and subsidies in complying with energy and climate targets. Restrictions on fossil fuels also prove effective in reducing carbon emissions in inland transport, when considering introduction and retirement profiles of vehicles. Moreover, the integrated multi-sectoral model can inform on synergy and competition dynamics among policy instruments for the coherent design of policy packages.

As Denmark progresses towards a carbon neutral future, energy system models are required to address the challenges of the energy transition. This article describes design, input data and current usage of TIMES-DK, the first Danish energy system model that includes the complete national energy system, covering long-term technology investments. The article aims at explaining the modelling approach; highlighting strengths and reflecting upon limitations of the model; illustrating possible applications of TIMES-DK and inspiring new model developments. Some of the key strengths of the model include simultaneous optimisation of operation and investments across the complete energy system over the whole modelling horizon, explicit representation of the most important sectors of the economy, modular structure and the possibility of linking to a computable general equilibrium model for an additional insight on, e.g. public finance or CO 2 -leakage. TIMES-DK is being developed in close collaboration between an energy agency, a university and a consulting firm, to improve its robustness, relevance and impact on policy making. It allows for a wide range of applications including exploratory energy scenarios and policy analysis. To meet challenges of the future, further development of the model is needed and consequently the article provides references to ongoing projects addressing current development needs, such as improved representation of transport and flexible handling of the temporal dimension. To support a democratic and transparent process around decisions for the future Danish energy system, TIMES-DK should become available to interested parties.