Suchergebnisse

This is the final version. Available on open access via the DOI in this record ; Data availability: The datasets analysed during this study are available online: CMIP5 model output [https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/], CMIP6 model output [https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/], The WFDEI Meteorological Forcing Data [https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds314.2/], CARDAMOM Heterotrophic Respiration [https://datashare.is.ed.ac.uk/handle/10283/875], MODIS Net Primary Production [https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod17a3v055/], Raich et al. 2002 Soil Respiration [https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp081/ndp081.html], Hashimoto et al. 2015 Heterotrophic Respiration [http://cse.ffpri.affrc.go.jp/shojih/data/index.html], and the datasets for observational Soil Carbon [https://github.com/rebeccamayvarney/soiltau_ec]. ; Code availability: The Python code used to complete the analysis and produce the figures in this study is available in the following online repository [https://github.com/rebeccamayvarney/soiltau_ec]. ; Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties on climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants, and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. The latter represents the change in soil carbon due to the response of soil turnover time (∆Cs,τ), and can be diagnosed from projections made with Earth System Models (ESMs). It is found to span a large range even at the Paris Agreement Target of 2◦C global warming. We use the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations to obtain a constraint on ∆Cs,τ . This spatial emergent constraint allows us to greatly reduce the uncertainty in ∆Cs,τ at 2◦C global warming. We do likewise for other levels of global warming to derive a best estimate for the effective sensitivity of τs to global warming, and derive a q10 equivalent value for heterotrophic respiration. ; European Research Council (ERC) ; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) ; European Union Horizon 2020 ; Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme