Suchergebnisse

A poultry‐processing model for a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of campylobacter is presented, which can also be applied to other QMRAs involving poultry processing. The same basic model is applied in each consecutive stage of industrial processing. It describes the effects of inactivation and removal of the bacteria, and the dynamics of cross‐contamination in terms of the transfer of campylobacter from the intestines to the carcass surface and the environment, from the carcasses to the environment, and from the environment to the carcasses. From the model it can be derived that, in general, the effect of inactivation and removal is dominant for those carcasses with high initial bacterial loads, and cross‐contamination is dominant for those with low initial levels. In other QMRA poultry‐processing models, the input‐output relationship between the numbers of bacteria on the carcasses is usually assumed to be linear on a logarithmic scale. By including some basic mechanistics, it is shown that this may not be realistic. As nonlinear behavior may affect the predicted effects of risk mitigations; this finding is relevant for risk management. Good knowledge of the variability of bacterial loads on poultry entering the process is important. The common practice in microbiology to only present geometric mean of bacterial counts is insufficient: arithmetic mean are more suitable, in particular, to describe the effect of cross‐contamination. The effects of logistic slaughter (scheduled processing) as a risk mitigation strategy are predicted to be small. Some additional complications in applying microbiological data obtained in processing plants are discussed.

A stochastic model for setting performance objectives for Salmonella in the broiler supply chain was developed. The goal of this study was to develop a model by which performance objectives for Salmonella prevalence at various points in the production chain can be determined, based on a preset final performance objective at the end of the processing line. The transmission of Salmonella through the broiler production chain was modeled. The prevalence at flock level was calculated from the measured prevalence at sample level. The transmission model is based on data on the occurrence of Salmonella collected in the Dutch broiler production chain during several years. The developed model can be used by policymakers and industry to determine economically and politically acceptable performance objectives for various points of the production chain and to draw conclusions about which interventions are most appropriate.

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest.