Suchergebnisse

EXPLAINING VOTING BEHAVIOUR OR EVEN FORECASTING VOTE SHARES IN GENERAL ELECTIONS HAS ALWAYS BEEN A MAJOR CONCERN OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. AT PRESENT, THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO DISTINCT BODIES OF LITERATURE ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: THE SOCIOLOGICAL THEORY AND THE ECONOMIC THEORY. THE SOCIOLOGICAL THEORY WAS DEVELOPED DURING WORLD WAR II AND IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED TODAY. LAZARSFELD ET AL. MAY BE REGARDED AS THE PIONEERING WORK IN THIS AREA. THE ECONOMIC THEORY, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS MORE RECENT ORIGINS. EVEN THOUGH HOTELLING AND SCHUMPETER ALREADY APPLIED ECONOMIC REASONING TO POLITICAL PROBLEMS, THE FOUNDATION OF THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF POLITICS (PUBLIC CHOICE) IS USUALLY CREDITED TO DOWNS. THE SEMINAL EMPIRICAL STUDIES WITHIN THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR ARE GOODHART AND BHANSALI, MUELLER AND KRAMER. THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PAPER IS TO REVIEW AND COMPARE THESE TWO THEORIES IN THE LIGHT OF THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE WHICH CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE NEW ZEALAND CONTEXT. SINCE THE SOCIOLOGICAL THEORY IS WELL KNOWN AS FAR AS POLITICAL SCIENTISTS ARE CONCERNED, THE ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE IS STRESSED. THE PAPER IS ORGANIZED AS FOLLOWS. SECTION 1 SETS THE STAGE BY BRIEFLY SUMMARISING THE CONTROVERSY WHICH HAS BEEN CARRIED ON IN THIS JOURNAL, SURROUNDING AN EMPIRICAL VOTE FUNCTION FOR NEW ZEALAND. IN SECTION 2 THE SCIENTIFIC APPROACH WHICH IS SPECIFIC TO ECONOMIC REASONING IS PRESENTED AND COMPARED WITH THE SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACH. THE APPLICATION OF THE SOCIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC APPROACHPY: 1984