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In order to examine issues related to the population age structure, especially population aging on the Chinese mainland, the authors present population trends over the past 35-years and population projections by age and sex for the years 1982-2052. They discuss a few policy options that could be adopted to deal with problems of population aging under the current socialist system. (DÜI-Sen)

In urban China, mortality from injuries has increased over the past five decades. By contrast, life expectancy has continued to increase and has come to nearly equal life expectancy in developed countries. Currently, most of the life expectancy lost due to injury (65%) in urban China would be recovered if injury rates were the same as in countries with low injury-related mortality. Fundamentally, the rising trend in urban injury mortality in China reflects a continued focus on injury treatment rather than prevention in the face of fast socioeconomic development and increasing exposure to risk factors for injury. Despite improved injury prevention legislation and a 'Safe Community' campaign, urban China needs to modify its approach to urban injury management and focus on prevention. The gap between urban China and countries with low injury mortality can be closed by means of legislation, strengthened law enforcement and the establishment of safer communities. Risks affecting children and migrants deserve greater attention, and the government needs to allocate more resources to injury prevention to mid-western urban areas in particular. Based on the population size of urban China, measures for the prevention of injury mortality would save an annual 436.4 million years of life.

Conventional multistate life table accounting procedures are based on theoretical assumptions that are appropriate primarily for demographic events. Applying these approaches to the area of health care, however, may lead to serious biases given the frequent turnovers of events such as hospitalization and institutionalization. In addition, traditional approaches have been criticized for failing to capture population heterogeneity. This research introduces a new algorithm to estimate multistate life table indicators regarding health care use, taking advantage of the availability of information on average lengths of stay in hospitals and nursing homes. The survival analysis approach is used to estimate age-specific transition probabilities in order to address the issue of population heterogeneity.

Contrairement aux dynamiques de mortalité des anciennes économies socialistes d'Europe durant leur période de transition, les changements de la mortalité en Chine depuis le début des réformes ont été peu étudiés. Cet article analyse les tendances de la mortalité des résidents permanents de Shanghai au moment où la Chine est passée du socialisme planifié au capitalisme d'État. L'amélioration constante de l'espérance de vie a connu un ralentissement entre 1992 et 1996. La mortalité des jeunes hommes adultes d'âge actif (20 à 44 ans) a augmenté, principalement à cause d'une progression des maladies cardiovasculaires et des morts violentes. Les décès dus aux transports ont connu une hausse, tandis que les suicides et les maladies du foie sont restés stables. Cette détérioration de la mortalité est liée aux changements structurels, parmi lesquels une détérioration de la protection sociale, une progression du chômage et du stress, ainsi que des transports et un environnement dégradés. Cependant, les effets défavorables sur la mortalité ont été atténués grâce à une stratégie de réformes graduelles, des institutions fortes et une croissance économique rapide. L'expérience de Shanghai peut s'avérer utile pour d'autres pays socialistes qui souhaiteraient passer à une économie de marché.