Suchergebnisse

If Saddam Hussein is overthrown by an internal coup, his regime could be succeeded by something similar, albeit with softer edges. A US-led invasion, however, could cause the United States to embark on an ambitious plan for "state reconstruction". In doing so, the stamina of the United States will be severely tested by the resistance of the "shadow state", the lure of communal politics, the indispensability of the security forces and the temptations of massive oil revenues. Faced by regional states determined to play a "spoiler" role, the United States may reduce its exposure and accept much of the status quo in Iraq. Saddam would have gone, but the Iraqis would be left a government little more representative than they have at present. (Survival / SWP)