Suchergebnisse

Aerosol extinction vertical profiles at Granada (Spain) are calculated with the GRASP (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) code using as input Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and sky radiance measurements from AERONET (AEerosol RObotic NETwork) and ceilometer RCS (Range Corrected Signal) profiles, both corresponding to the Granada (Spain) station. This methodology is so called GRASPpac due to the combination of sun/sky photometer and ceilometer on GRASP. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these retrieved extinction profiles at Granada, two more nearby AERONET stations, located at different altitudes, are used. The AOD difference of the three choosen AERONET sun/sky photometers have been used to calculate the Integrated Aerosol Extinction (IAE) at different height layers. These three AERONET sun/sky photometers are used as a reference and compared against the integrated extinction at the same layers from the extinction profiles retrieved by GRASPpac. The differences between AERONET and GRASPpac retrieved IAE values indicate that GRASPpac aerosol extinction profiles are at least within the uncertainty of the sun/sky photometer measurements, but GRASPpac method overestimates the AERONET extinction at low altitudes and underestimates it at high levels. The most accurate and precise retrieved extinction correspond to the intermediate layer with a mean bias error (MBE ± standard deviation) of 0.00 ± 0.01 (0 ± 59%) for 1020 nm, and the worst integrated extinction results were obtained for the upper layers with a MBE of −0.01 ± 0.02 (28 ± 36%) for 1020 nm. In general these MBE values increases for shorter wavelengths. In order to obtain a complete characterization of this bias, the dependence of the obtained differences on the aerosol size and the solar zenith angle, among others, are analysed in detail. Finally, the behaviour of vertically-resolved aerosol extinction at Granada is evaluated using averages of the retrieved profiles from November of 2012 to December of 2017. The highest IAE values are found in Summer with mean values of 0.09 for the lower layers and 0.07 for the upper ones, both at 440 nm wavelength. ; Andalusia Regional Government (project P12-RNM-2409) ; "Consejería de Educación" of "Junta de Castilla y León" (project VA100U14) ; Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under the projects, CMT2015-66742-R, CGL2016-81092-R, "Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación" program (FIJCI-2016-30007) and CGL2017-90884-REDT

The use of sky cameras for nocturnal aerosol characterization is discussed in this study. Two sky cameras are configured to take High Dynamic Range (HDR) images at Granada and Valladolid (Spain). Some properties of the cameras, like effective wavelengths, sky coordinates of each pixel and pixel sensitivity, are characterized. After that, normalized camera radiances at lunar almucantar points (up to 20° in azimuth from the Moon) are obtained at three effective wavelengths from the HDR images. These normalized radiances are compared in different case studies to simulations fed with AERONET aerosol information, giving satisfactory results. The obtained uncertainty of normalized camera radiances is around 10% at 533 nm and 608 nm and 14% for 469 nm. Normalized camera radiances and six spectral aerosol optical depth values (obtained from lunar photometry) are used as input in GRASP code (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) to retrieve aerosol properties for a dust episode over Valladolid. The retrieved aerosol properties (refractive indices, fraction of spherical particles and size distribution parameters) are in agreement with the nearest diurnal AERONET products. The calculated GRASP retrieval at night time shows an increase in coarse mode concentration along the night, while fine mode properties remained constant. ; This work was supported by the Andalusia Regional Government (project P12-RNM-2409) and by the "Consejería de Educación, Junta de Castilla y León" (project VA100U14). ; Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and FEDER funds under the projects CGL2013-45410-R, CMT2015-66742-R, CGL2016-81092-R. ; "Juan de la Cierva-Formación" program (FJCI-2014-22052). ; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme through project ACTRIS-2 (grant agreement No 654109).

The use of sky cameras for nocturnal aerosol characterization is discussed in this study. Two sky cameras are configured to take High Dynamic Range (HDR) images at Granada and Valladolid (Spain). Some properties of the cameras, like effective wavelengths, sky coordinates of each pixel and pixel sensitivity, are characterized. After that, normalized camera radiances at lunar almucantar points (up to 20° in azimuth from the Moon) are obtained at three effective wavelengths from the HDR images. These normalized radiances are compared in different case studies to simulations fed with AERONET aerosol information, giving satisfactory results. The obtained uncertainty of normalized camera radiances is around 10% at 533 nm and 608 nm and 14% for 469 nm. Normalized camera radiances and six spectral aerosol optical depth values (obtained from lunar photometry) are used as input in GRASP code (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) to retrieve aerosol properties for a dust episode over Valladolid. The retrieved aerosol properties (refractive indices, fraction of spherical particles and size distribution parameters) are in agreement with the nearest diurnal AERONET products. The calculated GRASP retrieval at night time shows an increase in coarse mode concentration along the night, while fine mode properties remained constant. ; This work was supported by the Andalusia Regional Government (project P12-RNM-2409) and by the "Consejería de Educación, Junta de Castilla y León" (project VA100U14); the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and FEDER funds under the projects CGL2013-45410-R, CMT2015-66742-R, CGL2016-81092-R and "Juan de la Cierva-Formación" program (FJCI-2014-22052); and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme through project ACTRIS-2 (grant agreement No 654109). ; Grupo de Investigación Física de la Atmósfera (RNM119)

This is a preprint version of article accepted "Roman, A.; et al. Retrieval of aerosol profiles combining sunphotometer and ceilometer measurements in GRASP code. Atmospheric Research, 204: 161-177 (2018). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016./j.atmosres.2018.01.021". ; In this paper we present an approach for the profiling of aerosol microphysical and optical properties combining ceilometer and sun/sky photometer measurements in the GRASP code (General Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties). For this objective, GRASP is used with sun/sky photometer measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and sky radiances, both at four wavelengths and obtained from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET), and ceilometer measurements of range corrected signal (RCS) at 1064 nm. A sensitivity study with synthetic data evidences the capability of the method to retrieve aerosol properties such as size distribution and profiles of volume concentration (VC), especially for coarse particles. Aerosol properties obtained by the mentioned method are compared with airborne in-situ measurements acquired during two flights over Granada (Spain) within the framework of ChArMEx/ADRIMED (Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) 2013 campaign. The retrieved aerosol VC profiles agree well with the airborne measurements, showing a mean bias error (MBE) and a mean absolute bias error (MABE) of 0.3 µm3/cm3 (12%) and 5.8 µm3/cm3 (25%), respectively. The differences between retrieved VC and airborne in-situ measurements are within the uncertainty of GRASP retrievals. In addition, the retrieved VC at 2500 m a.s.l. is shown and compared with in-situ measurements obtained during summer 2016 at a high-atitude mountain station in the framework of the SLOPE I campaign (Sierra Nevada Lidar AerOsol Profiling Experiment). VC from GRASP presents high correlation (r=0.91) with the in-situ measurements, but overestimates them, MBE and MABE being equal to 23% and 43%. ; This work was supported by the Andalusia Regional Government (project P12-RNM-2409) and by the "Consejería de Educación" of "Junta de Castilla y León" (project VA100U14); the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under the projects, CMT2015-66742-R, CGL2016-81092-R and "Juan de la Cierva-Formación" program (FJCI-2014-22052); and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme through project ACTRIS-2 (grant agreement no 654109) and the Marie Curie Rise action GRASP-ACE (grant agreement no 778349). The authors thankfully acknowledge the FEDER program for the instrumentation used in this work. COST Action TOPROF (ES1303), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology), is also acknowledged.

The appendix tables are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/609/A117 ; Context. The main goal of the CARMENES survey is to find Earth-mass planets around nearby M-dwarf stars. Seven M dwarfs included in the CARMENES sample had been observed before with HIRES and HARPS and either were reported to have one short period planetary companion (GJ 15 A, GJ 176, GJ 436, GJ 536 and GJ 1148) or are multiple planetary systems (GJ 581 and GJ 876). Aims. We aim to report new precise optical radial velocity measurements for these planet hosts and test the overall capabilities of CARMENES. Methods. We combined our CARMENES precise Doppler measurements with those available from HIRES and HARPS and derived new orbital parameters for the systems. Bona-fide single planet systems were fitted with a Keplerian model. The multiple planet systems were analyzed using a self-consistent dynamical model and their best fit orbits were tested for long-term stability. Results. We confirm or provide supportive arguments for planets around all the investigated stars except for GJ 15 A, for which we find that the post-discovery HIRES data and our CARMENES data do not show a signal at 11.4 days. Although we cannot confirm the super-Earth planet GJ 15 Ab, we show evidence for a possible long-period (P = 7030 d) Saturn-mass (msini = 51.8M) planet around GJ 15 A. In addition, based on our CARMENES and HIRES data we discover a second planet around GJ 1148, for which we estimate a period P = 532.6 days, eccentricity e = 0.342 and minimum mass msini = 68.1M. Conclusions. The CARMENES optical radial velocities have similar precision and overall scatter when compared to the Doppler measurements conducted with HARPS and HIRES. We conclude that CARMENES is an instrument that is up to the challenge of discovering rocky planets around low-mass stars.© ESO, 2018. ; CARMENES is an instrument for the Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman de Calar Alto (CAHA, Almeria, Spain). CARMENES is funded by the German Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG), the Spanish Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), the European Union through FEDER/ERF FICTS-2011-02 funds, and the members of the CARMENES Consortium (Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie, Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, Landessternwarte Konigstuhl, Institut de Ciencies de l'Espai, Insitut fur Astrophysik Gottingen, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Thuringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg, Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, Hamburger Sternwarte, Centro de Astrobiologia and Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman), with additional contributions by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, the German Science Foundation (DFG), the Klaus Tschira Stiftung, the states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Niedersachsen, the DFG Research Unit FOR2544 >Blue Planets around Red Stars>, and by the Junta de Andalucia. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (https://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. This work used the Systemic Console package (Meschiari et al. 2009) for cross-checking our Keplerian and Dynamical fits and the python package astroML (VanderPlas et al. 2012) for the calculation of the GLS periodogram. The IEEC-CSIC team acknowledges support by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) through grant ESP2016-80435-C2-1-R, as well as the support of the Generalitat de Catalunya/CERCA programme. The IAA-CSIC team acknowledges support by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) through grants AYA2014-54348-C03-01 and AYA2016-79425-C3-3-P as well as FEDER funds. The UCM team acknowledges support by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) from projects AYA2015-68012-C2-2-P and AYA2016-79425- C3-1,2,3-P and the Spanish Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte, programa de Formacion de Profesorado Universitario, under grant FPU15/01476. T. T. and M.K. thank to Jan Rybizki for the very helpful discussion in the early phases of this work. V.J.S.B. is supported by grant AYA2015-69350-C3-2-P from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competiveness (MINECO). J.C.S. acknowledges funding support from Spanish public funds for research under project ESP2015-65712-C5-5-R (MINECO/FEDER), and under Research Fellowship program >Ramon y Cajal> with reference RYC2012-09913 (MINECO/FEDER). The contributions of M.A. were supported by DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) through the grants 50OW0204 and 50OO1501. J.L.-S. acknowledges the Office of Naval Research Global (award No. N62909-15- 1-2011) for support. C.d.B. acknowledges that this work has been supported by Mexican CONACyT research grant CB-2012-183007 and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity through projects AYA2014-54348-C3-2-R. J.I.G.H., and R.R. acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry project MINECO AYA2014-56359-P. J.I.G.H. also acknowledges financial support from the Spanish MINECO under the 2013 Ramon y Cajal program MINECO RYC-2013-14875. V. Wolthoff acknowledges funding from the DFG Research Unit FOR2544 >Blue Planets around Red Stars>, project No. RE 2694/4-1.We thank the anonymous referee for the excellent comments that helped to improve the quality of this paper.

Context. Teegarden's Star is the brightest and one of the nearest ultra-cool dwarfs in the solar neighbourhood. For its late spectral type (M7.0 V), the star shows relatively little activity and is a prime target for near-infrared radial velocity surveys such as CARMENES. Aims. As part of the CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs, we obtained more than 200 radial-velocity measurements of Teegarden's Star and analysed them for planetary signals. Methods. We find periodic variability in the radial velocities of Teegarden's Star. We also studied photometric measurements to rule out stellar brightness variations mimicking planetary signals. Results. We find evidence for two planet candidates, each with 1.1 M minimum mass, orbiting at periods of 4.91 and 11.4 d, respectively. No evidence for planetary transits could be found in archival and follow-up photometry. Small photometric variability is suggestive of slow rotation and old age. Conclusions. The two planets are among the lowest-mass planets discovered so far, and they are the first Earth-mass planets around an ultra-cool dwarf for which the masses have been determined using radial velocities.© ESO 2019. ; M.Z. acknowledges support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under DFG RE 1664/12-1 and Research Unit FOR2544 >Blue Planets around Red Stars>, project no. RE 1664/14-1. CARMENES is an instrument for the Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman de Calar Alto (CAHA, Almeria, Spain). CARMENES is funded by the German Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG), the Spanish Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), the European Union through FEDER/ERF FICTS-2011-02 funds, and the members of the CARMENES Consortium (Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie, Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, Landessternwarte Konigstuhl, Institut de Ciencies de l'Espai, Institut fur Astrophysik Gottingen, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Thuringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg, Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, Hamburger Sternwarte, Centro de Astrobiologia and Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman), with additional contributions by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, the German Science Foundation through the Major Research Instrumentation Programme and DFG Research Unit FOR2544 >Blue Planets around Red Stars>, the Klaus Tschira Stiftung, the states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Niedersachsen, and by the Junta de Andalucia. Based on data from the CARMENES data archive at CAB (INTA-CSIC). This article is based on observations made with the MuSCAT2 instrument, developed by ABC, at Telescopio Carlos Sanchez operated on the island of Tenerife by the IAC in the Spanish Observatorio del Teide. Data were partly collected with the 150-cm and 90-cm telescopes at the Sierra Nevada Observatory (SNO) operated by the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (IAA-CSIC). Data were partly obtained with the MONET/South telescope of the MOnitoring NEtwork of Telescopes, funded by the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation, Essen, and operated by the Georg-August-Universitat Gottingen, the McDonald Observatory of the University of Texas at Austin, and the South African Astronomical Observatory. We acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigacion of the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and the European FEDER/ERF funds through projects AYA2015-69350-C3-2-P, AYA2016-79425-C3-1/2/3-P, AYA2018-84089, BES-2017-080769, BES-2017-082610, ESP2015-65712-C5-5-R, ESP2016-80435-C2-1/2-R, ESP2017-87143-R, ESP2017-87676-2-2, ESP2017-87676-C5-1/2/5-R, FPU15/01476, RYC-2012-09913, the Centre of Excellence >Severo Ochoa> and >Maria de Maeztu> awards to the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (SEV-2015-0548), Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709), and Centro de Astrobiologia (MDM-2017-0737), the Generalitat de Catalunya through CERCA programme>, the Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft-und Raumfahrt through grants 50OW0204 and 50OO1501, the European Research Council through grant 6 94 513, the Italian Ministero dell'instruzione, dell'universita de della ricerca and Universita degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata through FFABR 2017 and >Mission: Sustainability 2016>, the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council through grant ST/P000592/1, the Israel Science Foundation through grant 848/16, the Chilean CONICYT-FONDECYT through grant 31 80 405, the Mexican CONACYT through grant CVU 4 48 248, the JSPS KAKENHI through grants JP18H01265 and 18H05439, and the JST PRESTO through grant JPMJPR1775. ; Peer Reviewed

The CARMENES radial velocity (RV) survey is observing 324 M dwarfs to search for any orbiting planets. In this paper, we present the survey sample by publishing one CARMENES spectrum for each M dwarf. These spectra cover the wavelength range 520¿1710 nm at a resolution of at least R >80 000, and we measure its RV, H¿ emission, and projected rotation velocity. We present an atlas of high-resolution M-dwarf spectra and compare the spectra to atmospheric models. To quantify the RV precision that can be achieved in low-mass stars over the CARMENES wavelength range, we analyze our empirical information on the RV precision from more than 6500 observations. We compare our high-resolution M-dwarf spectra to atmospheric models where we determine the spectroscopic RV information content, Q, and signal-to-noise ratio. We find that for all M-type dwarfs, the highest RV precision can be reached in the wavelength range 700¿900 nm. Observations at longer wavelengths are equally precise only at the very latest spectral types (M8 and M9). We demonstrate that in this spectroscopic range, the large amount of absorption features compensates for the intrinsic faintness of an M7 star. To reach an RV precision of 1 m s¿1 in very low mass M dwarfs at longer wavelengths likely requires the use of a 10 m class telescope. For spectral types M6 and earlier, the combination of a red visual and a near-infrared spectrograph is ideal to search for low-mass planets and to distinguish between planets and stellar variability. At a 4 m class telescope, an instrument like CARMENES has the potential to push the RV precision well below the typical jitter level of 3-4 m s-1. © ESO 2018. ; We thank an anonymous referee for prompt attention and helpful comments that helped to improve the quality of this paper. CARMENES is an instrument for the Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman de Calar Alto (CAHA, Almeria, Spain). CARMENES is funded by the German Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG), the Spanish Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), the European Union through FEDER/ERF FICTS-2011-02 funds, and the members of the CARMENES Consortium (Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie, Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, Landessternwarte Konigstuhl, Institut de Ciencies de l'Espai, Insitut fur Astrophysik Gottingen, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Thuringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg, Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, Hamburger Sternwarte, Centro de Astrobiologia and Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman), with additional contributions by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, the German Science Foundation through the Major Research Instrumentation Programme and DFG Research Unit FOR2544 >Blue Planets around Red Stars>, the Klaus Tschira Stiftung, the states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Niedersachsen, and by the Junta de Andalucia. This work has made use of the VALD database, operated at Uppsala University, the Institute of Astronomy RAS in Moscow, and the University of Vienna. We acknowledge the following funding programs: European Research Council (ERC-279347), Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (RE 1664/12-1, RE 2694/4-1), Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF-05A14MG3, BMBF-05A17MG3), Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO, grants AYA2015-68012-C2-2-P, AYA2016-79425-C3-1,2,3-P, AYA2015-69350-C3-2-P, AYA2014-54348-C03-01, AYA2014-56359-P, AYA2014-54348-C3-2R, AYA2016-79425-C3-3-P and 2013 Ramon y Cajal program RYC-2013-14875), Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER, grant ESP2016-80435-C2-1-R, ESP2015-65712-C5-5-R), Generalitat de Catalunya/CERCA programme, Spanish Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte, programa de Formacion de Profesorado Universitario (grant FPU15/01476), Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (grants 50OW0204 and 50OO1501), Office of Naval Research Global (award no. N62909-15-1-2011), Mexican CONACyT grant CB-2012-183007.

The design and construction of CARMENES has been presented at previous SPIE conferences. It is a next-generation radial-velocity instrument at the 3.5m telescope of the Calar Alto Observatory, which was built by a consortium of eleven Spanish and German institutions. CARMENES consists of two separate échelle spectrographs covering the wavelength range from 0.52 to 1.71¿m at a spec-tral resolution of R < 80,000, fed by fibers from the Cassegrain focus of the telescope. CARMENES saw ¿First Light¿ on Nov 9, 2015. During the commissioning and initial operation phases, we established basic performance data such as throughput and spectral resolution. We found that our hollow-cathode lamps are suitable for precise wavelength calibration, but their spectra contain a number of lines of neon or argon that are so bright that the lamps cannot be used in simultaneous exposures with stars. We have therefore adopted a calibration procedure that uses simultaneous star / Fabry Pérot etalon exposures in combination with a cross-calibration between the etalons and hollow-cathode lamps during daytime. With this strategy it has been possible to achieve 1-2 m/s precision in the visible and 5-10 m/s precision in the near-IR; further improvements are expected from ongoing work on temperature control, calibration procedures and data reduction. Comparing the RV precision achieved in different wavelength bands, we find a ¿sweet spot¿ between 0.7 and 0.8¿m, where deep TiO bands provide rich RV information in mid-M dwarfs. This is in contrast to our pre-survey models, which predicted comparatively better performance in the near-IR around 1¿m, and explains in part why our near-IR RVs do not reach the same precision level as those taken with the visible spectrograph. We are now conducting a large survey of 340 nearby M dwarfs (with an average distance of only 12pc), with the goal of finding terrestrial planets in their habitable zones. We have detected the signatures of several previously known or suspected planets and also discovered several new planets. We find that the radial velocity periodograms of many M dwarfs show several significant peaks. The development of robust methods to distinguish planet signatures from activity-induced radial velocity jitter is therefore among our priorities. Due to its large wavelength coverage, the CARMENES survey is generating a unique data set for studies of M star atmospheres, rotation, and activity. The spectra cover important diagnostic lines for activity (H alpha, Na I D1 and D2, and the Ca II infrared triplet), as well as FeH lines, from which the magnetic field can be inferred. Correlating the time series of these features with each other, and with wavelength-dependent radial velocities, provides excellent handles for the discrimination between planetary companions and stellar radial velocity jitter. These data are also generating new insight into the physical properties of M dwarf atmospheres, and the impact of activity and flares on the habitability of M star planets. © 2018 SPIE. ; CARMENES is an instrument for the Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman de Calar Alto (CAHA, Almeria, Spain). CARMENES is funded by the German Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG), the Spanish Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), the European Union through FEDER/ERF FICTS-2011-02 funds, and the members of the CARMENES Consortium (Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie, Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, Landessternwarte Konigstuhl, Institut de Ciencies de l'Espai, Insitut fur Astrophysik Gottingen, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Thuringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg, Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, Hamburger Sternwarte, Centro de Astrobiologia and Centro Astronomico Hispano-Aleman), with additional contributions by the Spanish Ministry of Science, the German Science Foundation through the Major Research Instrumentation Program and DFG Research Unit FOR2544 "Blue Planets around Red Stars", the Klaus Tschira Stiftung, the states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Niedersachsen, and by the Junta de Andalucia.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.