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That poorer countries face higher risk of civil war is among the most robust findings in the literature on internal conflicts. However, we lack knowledge about whether a similar correlation exists on a more local level. Research into the local poverty–conflict nexus has largely relied on objective proxies of poverty that are only loosely related to the rationale for conflict. The results have been mixed, thus highlighting the need for more effective juxtaposition of theory and data. Using a subjective measure of poverty that determines whether individuals' basic needs are being met, this article presents new empirical evidence for existing propositions linking local poverty and conflict-based violence. The study analyzes georeferenced survey data from the pan-African Afrobarometer survey for 4008 subnational districts across 35 African states, producing results that show how areas with high levels of poverty are indeed more likely to experience conflict. However, the correlation is likely to be indirect. Interaction models demonstrate that poverty is more likely to exacerbate violence if an area's local institutions are weak or when impoverishment overlaps with group grievances against the government. Robustness tests, using coarsened exact matching and region-level fixed effects, provide considerable empirical support for a strong relationship between poverty and conflict at the local level.

That poorer countries face higher risk of civil war is among the most robust findings in the literature on internal conflicts. However, we lack knowledge about whether a similar correlation exists on a more local level. Research into the local poverty–conflict nexus has largely relied on objective proxies of poverty that are only loosely related to the rationale for conflict. The results have been mixed, thus highlighting the need for more effective juxtaposition of theory and data. Using a subjective measure of poverty that determines whether individuals' basic needs are being met, this article presents new empirical evidence for existing propositions linking local poverty and conflict-based violence. The study analyzes georeferenced survey data from the pan-African Afrobarometer survey for 4008 subnational districts across 35 African states, producing results that show how areas with high levels of poverty are indeed more likely to experience conflict. However, the correlation is likely to be indirect. Interaction models demonstrate that poverty is more likely to exacerbate violence if an area's local institutions are weak or when impoverishment overlaps with group grievances against the government. Robustness tests, using coarsened exact matching and region-level fixed effects, provide considerable empirical support for a strong relationship between poverty and conflict at the local level.

Contributions to the quantitative civil war literature increasingly rely on geo-referenced data and disaggregated research designs. While this is a welcome trend, it necessitates geographic information systems (GIS) skills and imposes new challenges for data collection and analysis. So far, solutions to these challenges differ between studies, obstructing direct comparison of findings and hampering replication and extension of earlier work. This article presents a standardized structure for storing, manipulating, and analyzing high-resolution spatial data. PRIO-GRID is a vector grid network with a resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 decimal degrees, covering all terrestrial areas of the world. Gridded data comprise inherently apolitical entities; the grid cells are fixed in time and space, they are insensitive to political boundaries and developments, and they are completely exogenous to likely features of interest, such as civil war outbreak, ethnic settlement patterns, extreme weather events, or the spatial distribution of wealth. Moreover, unlike other disaggregated approaches, gridded data may be scaled up or down in a consistent manner by varying the resolution of the grid. The released dataset comes with cell-specific information on a large selection of political, economic, demographic, environmental, and conflict variables for all years, 1946–2008. A simple descriptive data assessment of population density and economic activity is offered to demonstrate how PRIO-GRID may be applied in quantitative social science research.

This book explores the deep roots of modern democracy, focusing on geography and long-term patterns of global diffusion. Its geographic argument centers on access to the sea, afforded by natural harbors which enhance the mobility of people, goods, capital, and ideas. The extraordinary connectivity of harbor regions thereby affected economic development, the structure of the military, statebuilding, and openness to the world - and, through these pathways, the development of representative democracy. The authors' second argument focuses on the global diffusion of representative democracy. Beginning around 1500, Europeans started to populate distant places abroad. Where Europeans were numerous they established some form of representative democracy, often with restrictions limiting suffrage to those of European heritage. Where they were in the minority, Europeans were more reticent about popular rule and often actively resisted democratization. Where Europeans were entirely absent, the concept of representative democracy was unfamiliar and its practice undeveloped.

AbstractArmed conflicts are a concern for human development and public health and represent a major impediment for realizing Sustainable Development Goal #3: to ensure healthy lives and promote well‐being for all at all ages. Vaccination programs can be highly politicized and subjected to major security constraints in war zones, reducing their effectiveness. This article studies how armed conflict impacts immunization rates among children, combining two large datasets. We use health data for 15 conflict‐affected countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, including multiple Demographic and Health Survey rounds for most. We exploit the fact that age‐appropriate vaccinations should take place in the child's first year of life and compare children aged one to five with varying degrees of (local) conflict exposure in their first year of life within the same countries and communities. We differentiate between the effects of local and country‐level exposure to conflict on childhood immunization rates. The regression results show that conflict has a nonmonotonic effect on vaccination rates with minor (major) conflicts being associated with higher (lower) full immunization rates. We argue that in the case of minor conflicts, local‐level health care access drives the results, whereas for major conflicts it is mainly national channels that drive the result.

Understanding and anticipating violent conflict and the breakdown of governance in the European Union (EU) neighbourhood is complex. However, it is of great value for academia and EU foreign policy. How can the EU know about, prepare for, and possibly help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in its neighbourhood? To answer this question, we propose innovative quantitative approaches to capture violent conflict and governance breakdown through survey-based and non-survey-based data at the sub-national level. We assess different theoretical approaches to explaining violent conflict and governance breakdown with a focus on social resilience. Moreover, we discuss numerous methodological tools including random forests, Bayesian methods, and change point analysis. The paper highlights the possibility of measuring and predicting violent conflict and governance breakdown in the EU neighbourhood at the sub-national level. We underline our arguments with initial empirical analyses. Further, we point to several research gaps such as the necessity to develop data collection efforts in order to build analyses and predictions on better data.

Understanding and anticipating violent conflict and the breakdown of governance in the European Union (EU) neighbourhood is complex. However, it is of great value for academia and EU foreign policy. How can the EU know about, prepare for, and possibly help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in its neighbourhood? To answer this question, we propose innovative quantitative approaches to capture violent conflict and governance breakdown through survey-based and non-survey-based data at the sub-national level. We assess different theoretical approaches to explaining violent conflict and governance breakdown with a focus on social resilience. Moreover, we discuss numerous methodological tools including random forests, Bayesian methods, and change point analysis. The paper highlights the possibility of measuring and predicting violent conflict and governance breakdown in the EU neighbourhood at the sub-national level. We underline our arguments with initial empirical analyses. Further, we point to several research gaps such as the necessity to develop data collection efforts in order to build analyses and predictions on better data.

Income varies considerably within countries and the locations where conflicts emerge are rarely typical or representative for states at large. Yet, most research on conflict has only examined national income averages and neglected spatial variation. The authors argue that civil conflicts are more likely to erupt in areas with low absolute income, even if a country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is not necessarily low, and in areas with large deviations from national averages. The authors test these hypotheses empirically using spatially disaggregated data on the location of conflict outbreaks and per capita income estimates. The authors find that areas with absolute poverty indeed see more outbreaks of conflict, and they find some evidence that inequality increases the risk of conflict. Subnational information can improve on conventional country-based measures and help our understanding of how local features and variation can give rise to mobilization and violence.