Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach
In: Economic Analysis and Policy, Band 68, S. 126-150
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In: Economic Analysis and Policy, Band 68, S. 126-150
In: Journal of financial economic policy, Band 12, Heft 4, S. 577-591
ISSN: 1757-6393
PurposeThe significant economic weight of the Eurozone in the globe caused the contagion of the Eurozone debt crisis on the emerging markets. The Eurozone debt crisis caused the sudden plummeting of the cross-border bank credit (BC) to India causing a significant impact on bank lending in India. Essentially, the purpose of this study is to find an answer to the question: Did the decline in cross-border cross-credit from Eurozone had an impact on domestic BC in India?Design/methodology/approachUsing the data for the period from 2000 to 2013 sourced from Bank for International Settlements international banking statistics consolidated data sets, the novel specification of the study captures the impact of Eurozone cross-border credit on India by developing two regression frameworks that capture the pre-Euro debt crisis period scenario and post-Euro debt crisis period scenario.FindingsThe results offer a very interesting analogy of the behavior of BC and cross-border credit during the pre and post-Eurozone crisis scenarios of analysis. During the pre-Eurozone crisis period, cross-border credit displayed a significant negative relationship with BC indicating that cross-border credit to the Indian firms indirectly benefitted the banks by creating increased demand for domestic BC. The post-Eurozone crisis period witnessed a nexus between cross-border credit and BC during the pre-Eurozone crisis period, which gradually disappeared largely because of the onset of the Eurozone crisis.Originality/valueThis study is a first of its kind in investigating the impact of the Eurozone crisis on an emerging economy like India. This study supports the hypothesis of the existence of the transmission of financial shocks through the balance sheets of international banks. The findings conform to the policy concerns of most of the emerging economies that international banks transmit financial shocks from their home countries. The implication for India and other emerging economies is that international credit growth deserves careful monitoring.
In: Applied Economics Quarterly, Band 64, Heft 3, S. 253-277
ISSN: 1865-5122
Abstract
The study estimates the Basel-III capital requirement for Indian banks employing the methodology incorporating the reported tier-1, tier-2 capital, total capital and risk-weighted assets (RWAs) sourced from the Basel disclosures made by the banks on their websites. In order to understand the strategy and the response of different bank groups based on their ownership styles, this study, groups the banks into scheduled commercial banks, public sector banks group, and private banks and considers the data for the period 2002 – 2011. The results suggest that with an assumed growth of RWAs at 10%, banks in India would require additional minimum tier-1 capital of INR 2.51 trillion. With an assumed RWAs growth at 12% and 15%, the requirement would be in the order of INR 3.36 trillion and INR 4.74 trillion respectively.
JEL classifications: E44, E61, G2, G21, G28
Keywords: Basel III, capital and liquidity, commercial banks, capital, countercyclical capital buffers, financial (in)stability
In: Review of financial economics: RFE, Band 36, Heft 4, S. 307-320
ISSN: 1873-5924
AbstractThis study models the impact of new capital regulations proposed under Basel III framework on bank profitability in India by constructing a stylized representative bank's financial statement. It shows that, with an increase in the capital ratio in the context of new capital regulations, the banks tend to experience a rise in interest income. The results indicate that in the case of scheduled commercial banks, assuming that RWAs are unchanged, for 1‐percentage point increase in capital ratio, interest income would rise by 17 percentage points and would go up to an extent of 62 percentage points for six‐percentage‐point increase assuming that the risk‐weighted assets are unchanged. It also provides the estimations for different groups of banks and the scenarios of changes in the risk‐weighted assets, and changes in the capital ratios.
In: Journal of financial economic policy, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 136-164
ISSN: 1757-6393
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide an econometric modeling of demand for bank credit and not only offer useful insights to the decision-makers in the public and private sector but also support researchers and analysts in recognizing the determinants of lending in a major dynamic economic context.Design/methodology/approachThis study addresses the "supply-versus-demand-puzzle" by using a demand relationship and model loan demand as a function of interest rates and economic activity that may also capture supply effects. Loan demand modeled as a function of interest rates and economic activity not only represents a demand relationship but also captures supply effects. Using the generalized methods of moments estimation, the estimations are made robust to heteroskedasticity and/or autocorrelation of unknown form. GMM–Time series (HAC) option extends the robustness by using the weighting matrix that is robust to the contemporaneous correlation of unknown form to the autocorrelation of unknown form.FindingsIn a bank-dominated financial system like India, lending rates play a significant role in the transmission of monetary policy, as well as triggering and controlling loan demand and thereby exercising a pervasive effect on the output in the economy. The estimates indicate that the elasticity of loan demand is largely determined by the lending rate (0.6) and the economic activity (0.688). For one percentage point increase in capital ratio, the loan spread would rise by 31.4 basis points, which in turn would cause an increase of 18.8 basis points in loan demand assuming that risk-weighted assets are unchanged.Originality/valueThis is the first of its kind studying a banking system dominated emerging economy. Second, this study is based on a rich data set covering the period from 1979 to 2012, than other papers did, to capture the long-run association involving credit booms and busts and, thus, helps in avoiding the problem of estimation spanning the dominance of either boom or the bust alone. With a newer approach for quantification of the impacts of new regulatory standards, this study offers novel insights for the estimation of lending spreads.
In: The journal of developing areas, Band 53, Heft 4
ISSN: 1548-2278
In: WRDS Research Paper, Forthcoming
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In: Journal of financial economic policy, Band 9, Heft 4, S. 475-515
ISSN: 1757-6393
PurposeThis paper aims to assess the topography of financial regulation, supervisory styles and performance of banking systems across the world.Design/methodology/approachThe author gains insights by comparing regulatory and supervisory practices and their impact on banking system performance before and after the global crisis. The study illustrates the differences in regulation/supervision among crisis, non-crisis and BRICS countries. Even as capital ratios increased, bank governance and supervision regimes were strengthened, the private sector incentives to monitor banks deteriorated.FindingsThe results show that the crisis-countries had weaker regulatory and supervisory frameworks than those in emerging countries during the crisis period. BRICS countries as a distinct block have demonstrated uniqueness in their regulatory/supervisory styles that are similar neither to those in the crisis-countries nor to those in the non-crisis countries.Originality/valueThe originality of this study lies in its unique approach to assessing the bank regulation and supervision styles around the world and their impact on banking system profitability, as it uses a robust database. Further, this study provides not only a general assessment but also a comparative analysis of the BRICS and emerging economies. Regulatory agencies around the world would greatly benefit from systematic evidence on the relationship between bank performance and regulatory/supervisory systems.
In: Applied Economics Quarterly, Band 63, Heft 1, S. 97-135
ISSN: 1865-5122
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In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 56, S. 1-15
In: Journal of financial economic policy, Band 6, Heft 1, S. 25-45
ISSN: 1757-6393
Purpose– This study aims to investigate the inter-relatedness and the dynamics of banking stability measures and offers answers for some of the related issues such as does financial stability require the soundness of banking institutions, the stability of markets, the absence of turbulence and low volatility? and to what extent the soundness of banking sector in the case of emerging economies can help financial system stability.Design/methodology/approach– This study investigates banking stability by structuring a recursive micro panel vector auto regressive (VAR) model and corroborates the significance of the interrelatedness of the bank-specific variables such as liquidity, asset quality, capital adequacy and profitability by employing a robust panel data drawn from 56 leading banks for a period of 12 years.Findings– A significant contribution of this study is in establishing that liquidity in the banking-dominated financial system is reciprocally related with asset quality, capital adequacy, and profitability of the banking system and in effectively forecasting banking stability employing micro panel recursive VAR model.Research limitations/implications– The study could be further broadened by employing a macro and structural VAR modelling to forecast banking stability.Practical implications– This paper is one among the evolving body of literature that underscores the significant relationship between banking system resilience and financial stability in the context of emerging economies dominated with banking systems. Further, the forecast model is able to capture the dynamics of banking stability with greater and appreciable accuracy.Originality/value– The uniqueness of the study is in modelling banking stability measures in the context of banking-dominated emerging economy financial systems by employing micro panel recursive VAR model by deriving data from 58 leading banks for the period of 12 years from 1996 to 2009 and in offering insights in understanding financial stability with comprehensive literature review.