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People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the on-going transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents resultsfrom a project entitled "Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic", which employed 'Strategic Fore-sight', a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project's objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and oppor-tunities associated with future transformations inthe Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.Three future scenarios were developed together with stakeholders at a series of workshops. The scenarios take into account climate projections as well as possible environmental, so-cial and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. Representatives of different stakeholder groups (Indigenous Peoples Organizations, and en-vironmental NGOs, local communities, Yamal industry, the media etc.) were involved from the beginning of the project and acted as co-authors of the elaborate scenarios.The scenarios envisiondifferent futures for the region. In one of them, Yamal's petroleum business is shrinking as a result of theglobal energy transition. In another scenario, Yamal's gas industry is booming because gas is viewed worldwide as a "transition fuel". In two scenarios, Yamal experiences severe consequences of climate change, such as rain-on-snow events, or anthrax outbreaks and mercury releases out of thawing permafrost, which create life-threatening challenges for Indigenous communities. In contrast, the third ...

People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the ongoing transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents results from a project entitled "Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic", which employed 'Strategic Foresight', a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project's objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.

© 2020 The Authors. 1. Recent attention to the role of Indigenous knowledge (IK) in environmental monitoring, research and decision-making is likely to attract new people to this field of work. 2. Advancing the bringing together of IK and science in a way that is desirable to IK holders can lead to successful and inclusive research and decision-making. 3. We used the Delphi technique with 18 expert participants who were IK holders or working closely with IK from across the Arctic to examine the drivers of progress and limitations to the use of IK along with science to inform decision-making related to wildlife, reindeer herding and the environment. We also used this technique to identify participants' experiences of scientists' misconceptions concerning IK. 4. Participants had a strong focus on transformative change relating to the structure of institutions, politics, rights, involvement, power and agency over technical issues advancing or limiting progress (e.g. new technologies and language barriers). 5. Participants identified two modes of desirable research: coproducing knowledge with scientists and autonomous Indigenous-led research. They highlighted the need for more collaborative and coproduction projects to allow further refinement of approaches and more funding to support autonomous, Indigenous-led research. 6. Most misconceptions held by scientists concerning IK that were identified by participants related to the spatial, temporal and conceptual scope of IK, and the perceived need to validate IK using Western science. 7. Our research highlights some of the issues that need to be addressed by all participants in research and decision-making involving IK and science. While exact approaches will need to be tailored to specific social-ecological contexts, consideration of these broader concerns revealed by our analysis are likely to be central to effective partnerships. ; Anglia Ruskin University; EC H2020 Projects INTAROS and CAPARDUS. Grant Numbers: 727890, 869673; Nordic Council of Ministers