ESCALATORY AND NONESCALATORY "SYSTEMS"
In: American journal of political science: AJPS, Band 18, Heft 3, S. 549-558
ISSN: 0092-5853
TO PREDICT COMPARATIVE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE IN 2 SETS OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS, 2 SYSTEMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF DYADIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS ARE USED: POWER RELATIONSHIP & SD. THE DATA CONSIST OF 29 DYADS FROM R. J. RUMMEL ("A SOCIAL FIELD THEORY OF FOREIGN CONFLICT BEHAVIOR," PEACE RESEARCH SOCIETY, PAPERS, 1965, 4, 131-150) WHICH HAD CONFLICT DURING 1955-57 & 15 CONFLICTS FROM B. FITZSIMMONS ("THE ROLE OF VIOLENCE IN INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT," TECHNICAL REPORT #1, U OF SOTHERN CALIFORNIA, 1969, JAN) WHICH HAD SIMILAR CONFLICT. 4 MEASURES OF CONFLICT ARE USED IN THE RUMMEL DATA: (1) AN ORDINAL RANKING FROM 1 TO 6, (2) 4 FACTORS EXTRACTED FROM THE 12 DISCRETE CONFLICT MEASURES, (3) A MAGNITUDE RATING OF ALL 4 FACTORS, & (4) A WEIGHTED SCORE FOR EACH DYAD. 4 CONFLICT MEASURES ARE USED IN THE FITZSIMMONS DATA: (A) BATTLE CASUALTIES FROM BOTH COUNTRIES, (B) PHYSICALLY VIOLENT INTERACTIONS, (C) VERBALLY VIOLENT INTERACTIONS, & (D) A SCALED CONFLICT SCORE. LEVEL OF VIOLENCE IN THE 'CONFLICT SYSTEMS' IS MEASURED BY EVENTS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE 2 COUNTRIES IN CONFLICT; POWER RELATIONSHIP IS MEASURED BY POPULATION & ENERGY PRODUCTION; & SD IS MEASURED BY TRADE & MUTUAL MEMBERSHIP IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS. BY USING REGRESSION ANALYSES, MODERATE PROPORTIONS OF THE VARIATION IN OVERALL CONFLICT & DIFFERENT TYPES OF CONFLICT CAN BE ACCOUNTED FOR BY THE 2 SYSTEMIC CHARACTERISTICS. THESE FINDINGS APPEAR IN ONLY 1 SET OF 15 CONFLICTS. 3 TABLES. MODIFIED HA.