Suchergebnisse

The paper synthesizes the results of the empirical research of the 2008—2009 global economic crisis determinants. Some of them are additionally tested and specified. In particular, the so called decoupling hypothesis is suggested to be split into weak and strong forms: the developing economies appear to have been vulnerable to the global crisis, but in a lesser degree than the OECD countries. Trade determinants of the crisis haven't proved their dominant significance over financial channel factors. Public debt relative to GDP is a new variable on the crisis determinants list, as it limited the scale of stabilizing policies during the crisis due to growing risks of violating public finance resilience. The paper also shows that the probability of a new crisis comparable to the 2008—2009 global recession has not reduced and poses a serious challenge to the world economy now.

The article deals with opportunities and limits of Google search queries statistics as an indicator of financial conditions. The methodological issues and empirical results of the use of such indicators in foreign countries are discussed. It is shown that this statistics should be incorporated in an econometric model of individuals deposit growth in Russia. A composite indicator of financial situation allowing for shifts in financial expectations of individuals and entities is also proposed. It is proved that such measures may be good complements for traditional indicators to monitor financial conditions, which are based on the interview method.

M. Stolbov's article deals with the H.P. Minsky's financial instability hypothesis. It is proved that this theory is relevant to analyze the internal causes of the crisis in Russian banking and non-financial sectors. To ensure stable post-crisis development of Russia's economy, it is proposed to take measures based on Minsky's approach to corporate taxation. At the same time, some measures aimed at securing the balanced interrelation between financial and real sectors are suggested.

The article deals with the most influential monetary theories of business cycles, ranging from R. Hawtrey and F. Hayeks descriptive models based on credit cycles to the financial accelerator concept worked out by B. Bernanke. The prerequisites, methodology and conclusions of the theories are analyzed in the context of broad research programs of scientific schools and economists who elaborated these concepts. The competition and convergence between conflicting monetary theories of business cycles are also described.

The article deals with the notion of the global financial cycle proposed by H. Rey and her co-authors. The driving forces of the global financial cycle are discussed along with the findings of the empirical papers testing this concept. It is shown that recognizing US monetary policy shocks as a major driver of the global financial cycle does not undermine the validity of the well-known "trilemma": using the floating exchange rate regime still partly cushions developing and emerging market economies from external shocks. Its effect can be reinforced if macroprudential policy measures or partial restrictions on capital mobility are also applied. The review concludes by discussing possible extensions to the concept of global financial cycle.

The article deals with the problems and prospects of blockchain implementation as a general purpose technology in the financial sector. The underlying mechanism of this technology is described, practical cases of its adoption in various segments of the financial sector and in the field of corporate governance are provided. Cryptocurrencies' status, issuance and regulation are also discussed.

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Финансовое посредничество (financial intermediation) в последнее время рассматривается как важный вспомогательный механизм экономического роста. Изучению роли банков, инвестиционных компаний и других финансовых институтов уделяется значительное внимание в теоретической и эмпирической литературе

The authors consider the impact of financial innovations on the macroeconomic situation. The increasing complexity of financial market instruments is the way to decrease its transparency and, consequently, the overall economic stability. The global crisis of 2008-2009 demonstrated the relevance of this problem. However, the authors believe that the nations can take advantage of new financial products, technologies and business processes if the regulators manage to fully track and timely offset the accompanying risks. It is important that execution of the financial innovations correspond with the structure of the funding companies and banks. It is concluded that adequate regulation of financial innovation will allow better use of their potential in order to address a number of important economic issues. In particular, it may help to accelerate the development and introduction of new drugs, to the implementation of environmental projects, the financing of social progress in the developing countries for achieving the Millennium Goals proclaimed by the UN in 2000.

An increasing attention has been riveted recently on so called ESGfactors impacting financial stability. This paper provides a systematic review of the empirical studies which assess the impact of environmental (climatic), social factors as well as various aspects related to corporate governance on financial stability. Overall, higher ESG-rankings, both aggregate and in terms of the three pillars (E, S, G), tend to enhance the financial system stability from the microand macroprudential perspective by mitigating aggregate individual risk of financial institutions and the contribution to systemic risk, respectively. Nonetheless, the research intensity within the ESG pillars differs substantially. There are significantly more studies investigating the impact of environmental and corporate governance factors then tackling the effects of social ones. This literature review is closed with the discussion of possible directions for future investigation in the given research program.

This book describes various approaches in modelling financial risks and compiling ratings. Focusing on emerging markets, it illustrates how risk assessment is performed and analyses the use of machine learning methods for financial risk assessment and measurement. It not only offers readers insights into the differences between emerging and developed markets, but also helps them understand the development of risk management approaches for banks. Highlighting current problems connected with the evaluation and modelling of financial risks in the banking sector of emerging markets, the book presents the methodologies applied to credit and market financial risks and integrated and payment risks, and discusses the outcomes. In addition it explores the systemic risks and innovations in banking and risk management by analyzing the features of risk measurement in emerging countries. Lastly, it demonstrates the aggregation of approaches to financial risk for emerging financial markets, comparing the experiences of various countries, including Russia, Belarus, China and Brazil.

In this paper, based on a cross-country analysis, the authors distil different models of the financial sector, which are characterized by peculiar interrelations among size, structure, efficiency, stability, inclusion and the institutional quality of financial development. Against this backdrop, the model of the Russian financial sector is described. To identify the financial sector models, cluster analysis involving the EM algorithm with a Bayesian extension is performed on a vast sample of countries. The analysis allows setting key long-term indicators of the Russian financial sector development, taking into consideration its potential of transition to the cluster of more financially advanced economies.