Suchergebnisse

The basic research idea was to determine the state and problems in population development of an isolated mountainous region, which has been marked as a potentially developmental and attractive region in the Regional Plan of Serbia, having in mind that it is rich in valuable natural resources. Research was focused just on the protected region of the "Golija" Nature Park, however, wherever it was necessary for better understanding of demographic trends, the wider functional-gravitational region was analyzed, which belongs to the districts of Ivanjica, Kraljevo, Novi Pazar, Raska and Sjenica in the administration sense. It was determined that the following unfavorable (limiting) elements of demographic development are characteristic for the region of Golija: constant decrease of population, which is present in practically all settlements, intensive population emigration which has been decreasing in the last ten years or so due to the decrease in the number of potential emigrants; fluctuations in all relevant demographic structures; intensification of the process of demographic ageing which results in continual decrease of natural growth and disruption of all basic functional contingents of population which will certainly negatively affect future reproduction and population replacement. If such a negative state is taken into consideration then the question of demographic and thus developmental perspectives of this mountainous region is justifiably imposed and brought into question. The second part of the paper indicates to the demographic perspectives of the Golija region. According to the first estimation variant, which proceeds from the assumption on the continuation of the basic tendencies in demographic development so far, the number of inhabitants of Golija would be halved by the year 2030. In the second estimation variant, which proceeds from the assumption that in the near future some more serious changes in the functional structure of this region will be realized, having in mind some planned developmental activities, which would result in a somewhat faster tempo of total development of its certain parts which would reflect the gradual slowing down of negative tendencies in its population development on the whole as well. It should be stressed that the first, initial, positive effects would be manifested more seriously only in 20 years at the earliest. That means that by then there would be gradual ceasing of the demonstrated tendencies in demographic development of this region so far and the forming of complex (both developmental and demographic) prerequisites for its further demographic revitalization. It is characteristic that all the stated effects would not prevent the demographic dying out of 15 settlements. This imposes the requirement that when defining the organization strategies and development of this regional entirety, settlements must clearly be distinguished as well as their functional zones which have certain developmental predispositions, as well as settlements which have minimal, demographic and functional, potentials for future development and settlements which in the prospective period can demographically survive.

The main aim of this analysis was to determine the demographic effects of the
process of urbanization (as measured by the level of population
concentration in, formally speaking, urban settlements) on the regional
division of Serbia (made more than three decades ago) into standard zones
for demographic research. Likewise, the aim of the investigation was to
determine (as accurately as possible) the extent to which this scheme of
regional division could be used as a basis for demographic regionalization
of the territory of the Republic. This two-tier scheme divides the area of
Serbia into thirty I-tier (I) zones (regions) and seven II-tier zones
(regions) by combining some, usually modified, geographic criteria and
(fully applying) the carefully selected strictly demographic criteria, but
not applying those of the spatial-demographic character (like densities,
migratory features, urbanization). Demographic effects of the process of
urbanization (as a strictly demographic parameter) on this regional division
were investigated only in terms of the I-tier zones and not at lower
(subregional) spatial units - municipalities. The changes were analysed for
the period from 1971 to 1991 only, which was estimated as representative
enough for this process. Based on the investigation results, the following
was concluded: - despite strong demographic effects of the process of
urbanization, most standard zones for demographic research have managed to
keep the relatively high degree of homogeneity, which makes the current
regional division of Serbia quite acceptable with some slight modifications;
- modifications of this scheme, as determined by the demographic effects of
the process of urbanization, would mostly go into the direction of
intra-regional changes in regions to which the major urban agglomerations of
Serbia belong because, as large concentrations of population, they form a
new spatial demographic structure of these zones (regions); - the modified
scheme (adjusted to the actual demographic state and the structure of the
zones) would represent a proper base for demographic regionalization of the
Republic of Serbia.