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AbstractHow do emerging powers gain inclusion into club institutions, i.e. institutions with selective memberships that deliberately seek to avoid universality? We present a framework that highlights three factors: an emerging power's 'fit' to the club's logic of exclusivity, the club's possession of goods of value to the emerging power, and the ability of the emerging power to incentivize the club to open up via different strategies. We hypothesize that, due to the selection effect of choosing to seek inclusion in a club, emerging powers will seek integration using integrative strategies such as co‐optation and persuasion. We apply the framework to analyse the case of China's inclusion – along with several other countries – as a State Observer in the Arctic Council in 2013. While China did use largely integrative strategies, the political background to the decision to open up to new observers reveals latent features of power bargaining. Moreover, it is unclear whether observer status has been sufficient to satisfy China. The case highlights the significance of observers in international organizations as well as the importance of clubs' logics of exclusivity to their ability to adapt to international power shifts.

How do emerging powers gain inclusion into club institutions, i.e. institutions with selective memberships that deliberately seek to avoid universality? We present a framework that highlights three factors: an emerging power's 'fit' to the club's logic of exclusivity, the club's possession of goods of value to the emerging power, and the ability of the emerging power to incentivize the club to open up via different strategies. We hypothesize that, due to the selection effect of choosing to seek inclusion in a club, emerging powers will seek integration using integrative strategies such as co‐optation and persuasion. We apply the framework to analyse the case of China's inclusion – along with several other countries – as a State Observer in the Arctic Council in 2013. While China did use largely integrative strategies, the political background to the decision to open up to new observers reveals latent features of power bargaining. Moreover, it is unclear whether observer status has been sufficient to satisfy China. The case highlights the significance of observers in international organizations as well as the importance of clubs' logics of exclusivity to their ability to adapt to international power shifts.

How do emerging powers gain inclusion into club institutions, i.e. institutions with selective memberships that deliberately seek to avoid universality? We present a framework that highlights three factors: an emerging power's 'fit' to the club's logic of exclusivity, the club's possession of goods of value to the emerging power, and the ability of the emerging power to incentivize the club to open up via different strategies. We hypothesize that, due to the selection effect of choosing to seek inclusion in a club, emerging powers will seek integration using integrative strategies such as co‐optation and persuasion. We apply the framework to analyse the case of China's inclusion - along with several other countries - as a State Observer in the Arctic Council in 2013. While China did use largely integrative strategies, the political background to the decision to open up to new observers reveals latent features of power bargaining. Moreover, it is unclear whether observer status has been sufficient to satisfy China. The case highlights the significance of observers in international organizations as well as the importance of clubs' logics of exclusivity to their ability to adapt to international power shifts.

Arctic stakeholders are faced with uncertainty as to the future development of social, political, economic, and environmental conditions, not least due to the ongoing transformations inflicted by climate change. In Blue-Action, the case study focusing on "Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic" (CS5) has employed a specific co-design and engagement methodology to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) in Russia, to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. This methodology is the Foresight Exercise. The Foresight Exercise was conducted in the form of a series of three international workshops over 10 months between late 2017 and late 2018. The result thereof were three scenarios for the possible futures of the YNAO, which were co-designed by stakeholders participating in the workshops and representing environmental NGOs, indigenous peoples' organisations, business, media, policy-makers, representatives of local communities, and scientists from the natural and social sciences. Results of the workshops were presented in the Blue-Action deliverables D5.20, D5.21, and D5.22 (accessible in https://zenodo.org/communities/blue-actionh2020). This present deliverable takes stock of the Foresight Exercise from the perspective of the stakeholder engagement methodology. While the scenarios constitute the main result with regards to content, a major aspect of this exercise is also the reflection on the applied Foresight Exercise in order to: put the scenarios into the context of their evolutionary history, ensure the that the results of the exercise are put into the right perspective and are used accordingly, and provide "lessons learned" for the future work of researchers and stakeholders concerned with supporting decision-making under conditions of stark uncertainty in the Arctic and beyond. This reflection is ...

Deliverable: D5.21 Environment scanning workshop and report 1 Work package in charge: WP5 Developing and Valuing Climate Services Actual delivery date for this deliverable: Project-month 18 Dissemination level: Confidential (CO) Lead authors Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS): Vilena Valeeva, Kathrin Stephen Foresight Intelligence (FI): Johannes Gabriel Other contributing authors Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO): Elena Nikitina, Aleksei Kuznetsov Reviewer Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI): Chiara Bearzotti We support the Blue Growth! Visit us on: www.blue-action.eu Follow us on Twitter: @BG10Blueaction ; The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852.

This report presents the results of the third and the last workshop in the series "Yamal 2040" organised within Blue-Action work package WP5 "Delivering and valuing climate and information services". The Blue-Action team at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in cooperation with the Primakov National Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Science (IMEMO) and Foresight Intelligence, and with inputs provided by the National Oceanographic Center (UKRI-NOC) and the M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP-RAS) in the Blue-Action work package WP2 "Lower latitude drivers of Arctic changes" developed forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with multiple developments in the Arctic and help stakeholders to adapt to them. This case study looks at a specific region, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug in Arctic Russia (YNAO or Yamal region), a region with substantial ongoing and planned petroleum and shipping activities. Together with stakeholder groups, the team has co-developed a suite of scenarios to describe possible futures for this region in 2040 by incorporating cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. The scenarios are the outcome of a truly co-design and co-development process involving partners, stakeholders and using various foresight methods tailored to the project's needs. These methods allow to constructively deal with cognitive biases, thus enabling participants to think out of the box when planning the future. This approach is very helpful in tackling complex issues linked to numerous interacting uncertainties. ; The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852

We are all facing a changing climate. Businesses, policymakers, and local communities need to access reliable weather and climate information to safeguard human health, wellbeing, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. However, important changes in climate variability and extreme weather events are difficult to pinpoint and account for in existing modelling and forecasting tools. Moreover, many changes in the global climate are linked to the Arctic, where climate change is occurring rapidly, making weather and climate prediction a considerable challenge. ; Blue-Action has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727852

Die arktische Umwelt ist vielen Einflüssen ausgesetzt, die ihren Fortbestand bedrohen: Der Klimawandel und seine Folgen stellen bereits jetzt viele Ökosysteme vor große Herausforderungen. Wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten in der Region, wie Fischerei, Schifffahrt, Abbau und Transport von Rohstoffen sowie Tourismus, erhöhen den Druck auf die Umwelt zusätzlich. Die Anstrengungen für einen ambitionierten Umweltschutz in der Arktis müssen weltweit - und auch von nicht-arktischen Staaten - gesteigert werden, um sie zu erhalten. Dieser Forschungsbericht führt Ergebnisse des UBA-Vorhabens zu "Umweltleitlinien deutscher Arktispolitik" zusammen. Er zeigt mögliche Ansatzpunkte des deutschen Umweltressorts auf, den Umweltschutz in der Arktis auch aus der Position eines nicht-arktischen Staats zu fördern. Der Bericht beschreibt zudem die Aktivitäten des Vorhabens, die das Bewusstsein in der Öffentlichkeit dafür steigern sollten, dass wichtige Verbindungen zwischen Deutschland und der Arktis bestehen. Dazu zählen unter anderem ein Erklärfilm und eine öffentliche Veranstaltung.

This poster presents shortly how Blue-Action contributes to the BluePrint for Ocean Observing in the Atlantic. The poster was presented at OceanObs'2019 by Steffen Olsen (DMI). Blue-Action contributes to defining the future Atlantic monitoring system by: optimizing the monitoring systems at the gateways to the Arctic, assessing and enhancing the usefulness of the North Atlantic ocean observations in decadal prediction systems, demonstrating the value of initialized decadal predictions in climate services ; Blue-Action received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme Grant agreement no. 727852

The Blue-Action the teams are working at different levels in stakeholder engagement. In the project we define direct stakeholders as the series of end-users who contribute directly to the co-design of climate services and information services, and who benefit directly from the project results. In Blue-Action WP5 "Developing and Valuing Climate Services and Information Services", the five case studies have been involving several stakeholders in their work. Most of the stakeholders in the case studies are direct "beneficiaries" of the project in terms of EU funding, i.e. fully-fledged partners receiving Horizon 2020 funding for their activities in the project who contribute to the co-design of the climate and information services in this project. Additional indirect stakeholders are involved in the activities planned together by our WP5 and WP8 "Communication, Dissemination, Engagement and Exploitation" and benefit from the co-designed products and services. This report concerns delivery D8.13: Roadshow showing the mid-term results of WP5 to larger business audiences which is part of a larger focus on Engagement with emerging business actors. In Blue-Action WP5, the set of five case studies bring scientists together with stakeholders (local government and business players) to co-develop products that "translate" the model outputs and improved modelling skill developed in the Blue-Action WPs 1-4 into societal- and sector-relevant products i.e. climate services and targeted information services. The goal is to establish a dialogue between the WP5 Case Studies, the project scientists, going beyond the cooperation achieved in WP5, and fostering cross-fertilisation of ideas, inspiration and synergies with other business sectors and potential end-users of the climate services under development in WP5. This publication summarizes the activities involved in dissemination of the 5 case studies which jointly form the D8.13 delivery. ; The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 ...