Suchergebnisse

Background Until broad vaccination coverage is reached and effective therapeutics are available, controlling population mobility (ie, changes in the spatial location of a population that affect the spread and distribution of pathogens) is one of the major interventions used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, population mobility differs across locations, which could reduce the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. Here we assess the extent to which socioeconomic factors are associated with reductions in population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the city level in China and at the country level worldwide. Methods In this retrospective, observational study, we obtained anonymised daily mobile phone location data for 358 Chinese cities from Baidu, and for 121 countries from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We assessed the intra-city movement intensity, inflow intensity, and outflow intensity of each Chinese city between Jan 25 (when the national emergency response was implemented) and Feb 18, 2020 (when population mobility was lowest) and compared these data to the corresponding lunar calendar period from the previous year (Feb 5 to March 1, 2019). Chinese cities were classified into four socioeconomic index (SEI) groups (high SEI, high–middle SEI, middle SEI, and low SEI) and the association between socioeconomic factors and changes in population mobility were assessed using univariate and multivariable linear regression. At the country level, we compared six types of mobility (residential, transit stations, workplaces, retail and recreation, parks, and groceries and pharmacies) 35 days after the implementation of the national emergency response in each country and compared these to data from the same day of the week in the baseline period (Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020). We assessed associations between changes in the six types of mobility and the country's sociodemographic index using univariate and multivariable linear regression. Findings The reduction in intra-city movement intensity in China was stronger in cities with a higher SEI than in those with a lower SEI (r=–0·47, p<0·0001). However, reductions in inter-city movement flow (both inflow and outflow intensity) were not associated with SEI and were only associated with government control measures. In the country-level analysis, countries with higher sociodemographic and Universal Health Coverage indexes had greater reductions in population mobility (ie, in transit stations, workplaces, and retail and recreation) following national emergency declarations than those with lower sociodemographic and Universal Health Coverage indexes. A higher sociodemographic index showed a greater reduction in mobility in transit stations (r=–0·27, p=0·0028), workplaces (r=–0·34, p=0·0002), and areas retail and recreation (rxs=–0·30, p=0·0012) than those with a lower sociodemographic index. Interpretation Although COVID-19 outbreaks are more frequently reported in larger cities, our analysis shows that future policies should prioritise the reduction of risks in areas with a low socioeconomic level—eg, by providing financial assistance and improving public health messaging. However, our study design only allows us to assess associations, and a long-term study is needed to decipher causality.

Environmental conditions change considerably in the course of 24 h with respect to abiotic factors and intra- and interspecific interactions. These changes result in limited time windows of opportunity for animal activities and, hence, the question of when to do what is subject to fitness maximisation. This volume gives a current overview of theoretical considerations and empirical findings of activity patterns in small mammals, a group in which the energetic and ecological constraints are particularly severe and the diversity of activity patterns is particularly high. Following a comparative ecological approach, for the first time activity timing is consequently treated in terms of behavioural and evolutionary ecology, providing the conceptual framework for chronoecology as a new subdiscipline within behavioural ecology. An extensive Appendix gives an introduction to methods of activity modelling and to tools for statistical pattern analysis

Agencies responsible for recovering populations of iconic mammals may exaggerate population trends without adequate scientific evidence. Recently, such populations were termed as "political populations" in the conservation literature. We surmise such cases are manifested when agencies are pressured to estimate population parameters at large spatial scales for elusive species. For example, India's tiger conservation agencies depend on an extrapolation method using index‐calibration models for estimating population size. A recent study demonstrated mathematically the unreliability of this approach in practical situations. However, it continues to be applied by official agencies in Asia and promoted further by global organizations working on tiger conservation. In this article, we aim to: (a) discuss the ecological oddities in the results of India's national tiger surveys, (b) contrast these survey approaches to known statistical approaches for large scale wildlife abundance estimation, (c) demystify the mathematics underlying the problems with the survey methodology, and (d) substantiate these arguments with results from India's national tiger survey of 2014. Our analyses show that the predictions of tiger abundance reported by the 2014 survey, and consequently on tiger population trends, are misleading because of the presence of high sampling‐based overdispersion and parameter covariance due to unexplained heterogeneity in detection probabilities. We plead for designing monitoring programs to answer clearly defined scientific or management questions rather than attempt to meet extraneous social or funding related expectations.

Plague is a communicable rodent-borne disease caused by Yersinia pestis, a Gram-negative bacillus member of the Enterobacteriaceae family. As a zoonosis, plague is primarily a wildlife disease that occasionally spills over to the human population, resulting in seasonal surges in human cases and localised outbreaks. The predominant clinical form among humans is bubonic plague, which, if untreated, has a lethality of 60%–90% but is readily treatable with antibiotics, reducing the death rate to around 5% if administered shortly after the infection. One to two per cent of all bubonic cases develop into secondary pneumonic plague, which in turn may be transmitted from person to person through respiratory droplets, producing primary pneumonic plague in close contacts. Without antibiotic treatment, pneumonic plague is nearly 100% fatal, but early antibiotic treatment substantially improves survival. Today, Y. pestis is present in at least 26 countries, with more than 30 different flea vectors and over 200 mammal host species. Although human plague cases continue to be reported from Asia and the Americas, most cases currently occur in remote, rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, mostly in Democratic Republic of Congo and Madagascar (around300–500 per year). However, large-scale transmission may also occur. During the 14th century, the Black Death, caused by Y. pestis, is estimated to have killed 30%–40% of the European population. It is important to emphasise that human plague is mostly a poverty-related disease. Therefore, given that population density and the absolute number of people living in extreme poverty are both increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, there is no likelihood of plague being eliminated as a public health threat in the foreseeable future. However, the WHO does not consider plague to be either a neglected tropical disease or a 'priority pathogen' that poses a public health risk because of its epidemic potential. In September 2017, an unprecedented urban outbreak of pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, striking primarily its capital Antananarivo and the major seaport of Toamasina. This episode once again brought international attention to plague, reminding us of the capacity for human plague to spread in urban settings and cause substantial societal and economic disruption. This should raise alarm bells that a research agenda is needed.