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Over 400 poll questions related to the nuclear freeze debate 1980-1984 are analyzed, challenging conventional wisdom about public opinion on the freeze initiative. While the polls reveal general support for arms control & the concept of a "freeze," they also reveal that support for the freeze came heavily qualified: Americans expressed doubts about the verifiability of a freeze between the US & the USSR, whether an equal balance of nuclear forces could be "frozen" in place, & whether the USSR would live up to such an agreement. Also, the US public paid little attention to the freeze debate; few knew much about the freeze initiative, & fewer still had positive attitudes toward it. 1 Appendix, 27 References. AA

In Apr 1978, after 9 months of national debate, the US Senate narrowly ratified new Panama Canal treaties. Voting was apparently influenced by numerous PO polls, which were seen as showing increased support for the treaties; however, several analysts have shown that PO consistently opposed the treaties. Here, national poll results on the topic are examined, along with polling & reporting practices, in order to identify possible sources of misinterpretation. Analysis of poll questions reveals possible sources for the erroneous belief that PO changed from opposition to support of the treaties: (1) 40 of 51 questions were different, thus allowing partisan & naive observers to see illusory trends in their results; (2) 38 of 51 questions were erroneous, ambiguous, or biased; & (3) in 4 of 6 key polls, pollsters seriously misinterpreted their findings. Analysis of coverage of PO on the treaties in 6 national news media suggest additional problems: coverage on CBS News & in The New York Times was generally accurate & perceptive; ABC News did not cover poll results; coverage on NBC News & in Time & Newsweeek magazines exhibited numerous errors of fact & inference, all of which supported the erroneous claim of a change in PO. All 6 news media consistently omitted data required by standards of reporting developed by the American Assoc for Public Opinion Research & other organizations. Results strongly suggest the need for pollsters to ask series of identical questions, avoid attempts to inform Rs on the topic of interest, & insure that poll questions & interpretations match the complexity of the subjects they address. At a minimum, news media should report question wording, interview dates, & population sampled whenever poll data are discussed. 3 Tables, 29 References. Modified AA

The results of a detailed content analysis of TV news coverage of election opinion polls is provided, with focus on TV evening news coverage of election polls in the state of Victoria during the 1980 Australian federal election campaign. Five major findings are reported: (1) coverage of election polls was extensive -- almost 33.34% of all election items included substantial discussion; (2) the most common focus of the coverage was actual or supposed effects of the polls, followed closely by reporting of poll results; (3) coverage was superficial in the sense that basic methodological details, required by various press guidelines, were typically omitted; (4) coverage was highly inaccurate, as measured by the incidence of 9 clear errors of fact & interpretation; & (5) coverage was balanced, but only in the sense that journalists tended to support the validity of the poll findings, politicians to oppose them. Neither group discussed serious potential poll shortcomings. The findings are best understood as the result of a fundamental conflict between the nature of opinion polls & the constraints of TV news. Polls are inherently complex, somewhat dated, & tentative in their conclusions; TV news strives to be simple, timely, & interesting. The result is a pattern of systematic distortion in reports of poll data. Because these constraints are shared by most Western newsmen, this pattern can be expected to be widespread, &, based on the Australian experience, damaging both to the electoral process & the institution of polling. A partial solution is to develop & disseminate guidelines that specify the minimum information needed in "secondary" reports of poll results, & that clarify the range of valid inferences that can be drawn from them. 4 Tables, 28 References. Modified AA.