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This article examines the relationship between income and pollutant emissions in the Obj ECTS Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) to determine how historical analysis can best guide modeling efforts. Future scenarios for energy-related emissions of nitrous oxide (NOx ) and sulfur dioxide (SO2 )are presented along with the methodology used. A pseudo-Kuznets approach is used where the level of emission control is assumed to vary with per capita income. Emission results depend on the assumptions for when emission controls are implemented and the stringency of those controls. Historical analysis of the relationship between income and emission controls might be particularly useful in informing the parameterization of when emission controls are implemented. However, historical analysis is likely to be less helpful in informing the selection of parameters for the future levels of control, particularly at future times when parameter values are well outside the range of historical experience.

Anthropogenic increases of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The Integrated Assessment community quantified anthropogenic emissions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentration for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally-based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions in the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from today 66 % to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterisations that reflect the Oslo Line by Line model results. In comparison to the RCPs, the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced in terms of their expected global-mean temperatures, extend to lower 2100 temperatures and sea level rise than the RCP set. Performing 2 pairs of 6-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the MAM season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼ 5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a 'hockey-stick' upwards shape – it is a collective choice whether the hothouse pathway is pursued or whether we manage climate damages to the SSP1-1.9 equivalent of around 1.5 °C warming.

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios - using the reduced-complexity climate-carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP con- centration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying ...