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Significance Many studies in international relations have investigated relationships between pairs of countries and the likelihood of conflict, yet none have connected the overall structure of the network of relationships between countries with the total level of international conflict. Here, we blaze a new path in the study of international conflict by introducing a measure of the overall fractionalization in the network of international relationships which we call Kantian fractionalization and demonstrating that this measure has been closely correlated with the number of new international conflicts in the following year. Moreover, we show that jointly democratic pairs of countries contribute negligibly to Kantian fractionalization, casting doubt on one of the most prominent concepts in international relations and policy prescriptions in Washington.

AbstractThe temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) and the stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM, e.g., SIENA) are popular models for longitudinal network analysis. We compare these models theoretically, via simulation, and through a real-data example in order to assess their relative strengths and weaknesses. Though we do not aim to make a general claim about either being superior to the other across all specifications, we highlight several theoretical differences the analyst might consider and find that with some specifications, the two models behave very similarly, while each model out-predicts the other one the more the specific assumptions of the respective model are met.

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g., regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim to specify a probabilistic model that provides a good fit to testing data that were not used to estimate the model's parameters. Our goals are threefold. First, we review the central benefits of this under-utilized approach from a perspective uncommon in the existing literature: we focus on how predictive modeling can be used to complement and augment standard associational analyses. Second, we advance the state of the literature by laying out a simple set of benchmark predictive criteria. Third, we illustrate our approach through a detailed application to the prediction of interstate conflict.

Missing values are a frequent problem in empirical political science research. Surprisingly, the match between the measurement of the missing values and the correcting algorithms applied is seldom studied. While multiple imputation is a vast improvement over the deletion of cases with missing values, it is often unsuitable for imputing highly non-granular discrete data. We develop a simple technique for imputing missing values in such situations, which is a variant of hot deck imputation, drawing from the conditional distribution of the variable with missing values to preserve the discrete measure of the variable. This method is tested against existing techniques using Monte Carlo analysis and then applied to real data on democratization and modernization theory. Software for our imputation technique is provided in a free, easy-to-use package for the R statistical environment. Adapted from the source document.

Missing values are a frequent problem in empirical political science research. Surprisingly, the match between the measurement of the missing values and the correcting algorithms applied is seldom studied. While multiple imputation is a vast improvement over the deletion of cases with missing values, it is often unsuitable for imputing highly non-granular discrete data. We develop a simple technique for imputing missing values in such situations, which is a variant of hot deck imputation, drawing from the conditional distribution of the variable with missing values to preserve the discrete measure of the variable. This method is tested against existing techniques using Monte Carlo analysis and then applied to real data on democratization and modernization theory. Software for our imputation technique is provided in a free, easy-to-use package for the R statistical environment.

The exponential random graph model (ERGM) is an increasingly popular method for the statistical analysis of networks that can be used to flexibly analyze the processes by which policy actors organize into a network. Often times, interpretation of ERGM results is conducted at the network level, such that effects are related to overall frequencies of network structures (e.g., the number of closed triangles in a network). This limits the utility of the ERGM because there is often interest, particularly in political and policy sciences, in network dynamics at the actor or relationship levels. Micro‐level interpretation of the ERGM has been employed in varied applications in sociology and statistics. We present a comprehensive framework for interpretation of the ERGM at all levels of analysis, which casts network formation as block‐wise updating of a network. These blocks can represent, for example, each potential link, each dyad, the out‐ or in‐going ties of each actor, or the entire network. We contrast this interpretive framework with the stochastic actor‐based model (SABM) of network dynamics. We present the theoretical differences between the ERGM and the SABM and introduce an approach to comparing the models when theory is not sufficiently strong to make the selection a priori. The alternative models we discuss and the interpretation methods we propose are illustrated on previously published data on estuary policy and governance networks.

Methods for descriptive network analysis have reached statistical maturity and general acceptance across the social sciences in recent years. However, methods for statistical inference with network data remain fledgling by comparison. We introduce and evaluate a general model for inference with network data, the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) and several of its recent extensions. The ERGM simultaneously allows both inference on covariates and for arbitrarily complex network structures to be modeled. Our contributions are three-fold: beyond introducing the ERGM and discussing its limitations, we discuss extensions to the model that allow for the analysis of non-binary and longitudinally observed networks and show through applications that network-based inference can improve our understanding of political phenomena.