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The aim of this study commissioned by the European Commission, DG CONNECT, is to conduct an in-depth analysis of possible development pathways of the 5G equipment and services supply market. Departing from the baseline analysis of the 5G supply market trends a foresight exercise on key trends influencing the further development of 5G has been developed. Based upon a selection of key trends, which were deemed to be particularly relevant for the future development of the 5G supply market but associated with a very high level of uncertainty in its outcome, the study team elaborated hypothetical but plausible scenarios for the future development of the 5G supply market with a time horizon of 2030. Four scenarios are illuminating potential pathways for Europe, based on different configurations of key technological, economic, social and political factors. The impact of the four different scenarios are analysed based upon a review of recent academic literature, market analyses, and more than thirty expert interviews with high-level representatives from Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), vendors, standardisation organisations and relevant associations. Where possible, uncertainty related to any quantitative projections included in the sceanios has been accounted for. However, underlying data and assumptions for many projections are proprietary or unavailable for other reasons, therefore an assessment of these underlying data was not possible. The four scenarios and their assessment should inform policy-makers to develop strategies aiming to strengthen the European telecommunication industry and the provision of 5G infrastructure.

The importance of 5G infrastructure, its fast roll-out, and technological capabilities, as well as the development of the supply side of 5G infrastructure, has been highlighted by the European Commission (EC) in various initiatives and strategies including the Communications "5G Action Plan for Europe" and "Secure 5G deployment in the EU: Implementing the EU toolbox". However, although Europe is home of two of the three major equipment suppliers and is world leader in trial investments in 5G, overall infrastructure investments lag behind other regions and Europe's vertical industries are only just starting to identify valuable 5G business cases and European equipment providers are facing challenges to sustain their viability, facing increased competition from Chinese, South Korean, and U.S. manufacturers. Against this background, this study provides an in-depth analysis of plausible developments of the 5G equipment and services supply market looking out to 2030. The study identifies 4 scenarios, determined by factors such as evolving technology, standards readiness, and Radio Access Network (RAN) disaggregation initiatives. Economic, technological, environmental, and societal impacts are analysed for each scenario, covering key EC and stakeholder concerns, including market competition, costs, cybersecurity, energy efficiency, and standards needs. Based upon the results of the scenario impact analysis, the study identifies policy options to facilitate the evolution of a viable 5G supply ecosystem in Europe.

The importance of 5G infrastructure, its fast roll-out, and technological capabilities, as well as the development of the supply side of 5G infrastructure, has been highlighted by the European Commission (EC) in various initiatives and strategies including the Communications "5G Action Plan for Europe" and "Secure 5G deployment in the EU: Implementing the EU toolbox". However, although Europe is home of two of the three major equipment suppliers and is world leader in trial investments in 5G, overall infrastructure investments lag behind other regions and Europe's vertical industries are only just starting to identify valuable 5G business cases and European equipment providers are facing challenges to sustain their viability, facing increased competition from Chinese, South Korean, and U.S. manufacturers. Against this background, this study provides an in-depth analysis of plausible developments of the 5G equipment and services supply market looking out to 2030. The study identifies 4 scenarios, determined by factors such as evolving technology, standards readiness, and Radio Access Network (RAN) disaggregation initiatives. Economic, technological, environmental, and societal impacts are analysed for each scenario, covering key EC and stakeholder concerns, including market competition, costs, cybersecurity, energy efficiency, and standards needs. Based upon the results of the scenario impact analysis, the study identifies policy options to facilitate the evolution of a viable 5G supply ecosystem in Europe.

The study on the 5G supply market trends, which was launched in September 2020 and has a project runtime of 11 months, aims at providing the European Commission with an in-depth analysis on qualitative and quantitative information on the 4G and 5G equipment and services supply market trends. The study provides: a baseline assessment of the 5G equipment and services supply markets including new deployment and operation models, an analysis of the level of maturity of past, existing and upcoming open radio access networks (RANs) and the state of play in global international standardization organizations regarding the open initiatives, in order to define scenarios on the future development of supply market trends and identify and analyse potential policy options facilitating a healthy development for European companies and SMEs in the evolving ecosystems. In the first three months, the project team finalised an analysis of the current state of play of the 4G and 5G supply chain and market shares of infrastructures providers and performed the analysis of the state of play of the existing and upcoming open radio access networks. Furthermore, the study team launched a foresight exercise in order to identify key trends influencing the development of 5G. The scenarios to be developed by those trends, will provide different visions for Europe, based on plausible different configurations of key technological, economic, social and political factors. This document serves the purpose to inform the participants of the first stakeholder workshop of this study about the results of the analyses that have been generated in the first phase of this study.