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This paper assesses whether attaining a higher education improves the chances of employment in adulthood amongst those who had a chronic health condition in adolescence. Using longitudinal analysis of twelve waves of the nationally representative Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, conducted between 2001 and 2012, a cohort of adolescents aged 15 to 21 in Wave 1 were followed through to age 24 (n=624). The results show that those who did have a chronic health condition during adolescence were2.4 times more likely to not be employed at age 24 compared to those who did not have a chronic health condition (95% CI: 1.4 – 4.4, p=0.0024). The results were adjusted for age, sex, education attainment at age 24, health status at age 24 and household income poverty status at age 24. Amongst those who did have a chronic health condition during adolescence there was no significant difference in the likelihood of being employed for those with a Year 12 and below (p=0.1087) level of education attainment or those with a Diploma, Certificate III or IV (p=0.6366) compared to those with a university degree. Education attainment was not shown to mitigate the impact of having a chronic health condition during adolescence on adult employment outcomes.

Education attainment will impact upon an individual's capacity to engage in the labour force, their living standards and hence their poverty status. As such, education should be included in measures of poverty. However, it is not known what a sufficient level of education to have a decent standard of living is. Using the 2003 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers different levels of education attainment were tested for their association with labour force participation and income. Based upon this, it was concluded that Year 12 or higher is a sufficient level of education attainment for 15 to 64 year olds; and Year 10 or higher for people over the age of 65 years. This is in line with current government policies to improve Year 12 completion rates. Knowing what a 'sufficient level of education attainment' is, allows education to be included in multidimensional measures of poverty that view education as a key dimension of disadvantage.

Aims: To assess the labour force participation and quantify the economic status of older Australian workers with multiple health conditions. Background: Many older people suffer from multiple health conditions. While multiple morbidities have been highlighted as an important research topic, there has been limited research in this area to date, particularly on the economic status of those with multiple morbidities. Methods: Cross sectional analysis of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of Australians aged 45 to 64 years. Results: People with one chronic health condition had 0.59 times the odds of being employed compared to those with no condition (OR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.71), and those with four or more conditions had 0.14 times the odds of being employed compared to those with no condition (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.18). People with one condition received a weekly income 32% lower than those with no health condition, paid 49 % less tax, and received 37% more in government transfer payments; those with four or more conditions received a weekly income 94% lower, paid 97% less in tax and received over 2,000% more in government transfer payments per week than those with no condition. Conclusion: While having a chronic health condition is associated with lower labour force participation and poorer economic status, having multiple conditions compounds the affect – with these people being far less likely to be employed and having drastically lower incomes.

Abstract Background The costs of arthritis to the individuals and the state are considerable. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of 45 to 64 year old Australians built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who had retired early due to arthritis had a median value of AU$260 in total weekly income whereas those who were employed full time were likely to average more than five times this. The large national aggregate impact of early retirement due to arthritis includes AU$9.4 billion in lost GDP, attributable to arthritis through its impact on labour force participation. When looking at the ongoing impact of being out of the labour force those who retired from the labour force early due to arthritis were estimated to have a median value of total savings by the time they are 65 of as little as $300 (for males aged 45–54). This is far lower than the median value of savings for those males aged 45–54 who remained in the labour force full time, who would have an estimated $339 100 of savings at age 65. Conclusions The costs of arthritis to the individuals and the state are considerable. The impacts on the state include loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increased government support payments – in addition to direct health care costs. Individuals bear the economic costs of lost income and the reduction of their savings over the long term.

Background: The costs of arthritis to the individuals and the state are considerable. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of 45 to 64 year old Australians built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results: Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who had retired early due to arthritis had a median value of AU$260 in total weekly income whereas those who were employed full time were likely to average more than five times this. The large national aggregate impact of early retirement due to arthritis includes AU$9.4 billion in lost GDP, attributable to arthritis through its impact on labour force participation. When looking at the ongoing impact of being out of the labour force those who retired from the labour force early due to arthritis were estimated to have a median value of total savings by the time they are 65 of as little as $300 (for males aged 45–54). This is far lower than the median value of savings for those males aged 45–54 who remained in the labour force full time, who would have an estimated $339 100 of savings at age 65. Conclusions: The costs of arthritis to the individuals and the state are considerable. The impacts on the state include loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increased government support payments – in addition to direct health care costs. Individuals bear the economic costs of lost income and the reduction of their savings over the long term.

Abstract Background Long term illness has far reaching impacts on individuals, and also places a large burden upon government. This paper quantifies the indirect economic impacts of illness related early retirement on individuals and government in Australia in 2009. Methods The output data from a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, was analysed. Health&WealthMOD is representative of the 45 to 64 year old Australian population in 2009. The average weekly total income, total government support payments, and total taxation revenue paid, for individuals who are employment full-time, employed part-time and not in the labour force due to ill health was quantified. Results It was found that persons out of the labour force due to illness had significantly lower incomes ($218 per week as opposed to $1167 per week for those employed full-time), received significantly higher transfer payments, and paid significantly less tax than those employed full-time or part-time. This results in an annual national loss of income of over $17 billion, an annual national increase of $1.5 billion in spending on government support payments, and an annual loss of $2.1 billion in taxation revenue. Conclusions Illness related early retirement has significant economic impacts on both the individual and on governments as a result of lost income, lost taxation revenue and increased government support payments. This paper has quantified the extent of these impacts for Australia.

Background: Mental health conditions have the ability to interrupt an individual's ability to participate in the labour force, and this can have considerable follow on impacts to both the individual and the state. Method: Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model was used to quantify the personal cost of lost income and the cost to the state from lost income taxation, increased benefits payments and lost GDP as a result of early retirement due to mental health conditions in Australians aged 45-64 in 2009. Results: Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who have retired early due to depression personally have 73% lower income then their full time employed counterparts and those retired early due to other mental health conditions have 78% lower incomes. The national aggregate cost to government due to early retirement from these conditions equated to $278 million (£152.9 million) in lost income taxation revenue, $407 million (£223.9 million) in additional transfer payments and around $1.7 billion in GDP in 2009 alone. Conclusions: The costs of mental health conditions to the individuals and the state are considerable. While individuals has to bear the economic costs of lost income in addition to the burden of the conditions itself, the impact on the state is loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increased government support payments--in addition to direct health care costs.

Abstract Background Mental health conditions have the ability to interrupt an individual's ability to participate in the labour force, and this can have considerable follow on impacts to both the individual and the state. Method Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model was used to quantify the personal cost of lost income and the cost to the state from lost income taxation, increased benefits payments and lost GDP as a result of early retirement due to mental health conditions in Australians aged 45-64 in 2009. Results Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who have retired early due to depression personally have 73% lower income then their full time employed counterparts and those retired early due to other mental health conditions have 78% lower incomes. The national aggregate cost to government due to early retirement from these conditions equated to $278 million (£152.9 million) in lost income taxation revenue, $407 million (£223.9 million) in additional transfer payments and around $1.7 billion in GDP in 2009 alone. Conclusions The costs of mental health conditions to the individuals and the state are considerable. While individuals has to bear the economic costs of lost income in addition to the burden of the conditions itself, the impact on the state is loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increased government support payments - in addition to direct health care costs.

Background: Long term illness has far reaching impacts on individuals, and also places a large burden upon government. This paper quantifies the indirect economic impacts of illness related early retirement on individuals and government in Australia in 2009. Methods: The output data from a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, was analysed. Health&WealthMOD is representative of the 45 to 64 year old Australian population in 2009. The average weekly total income, total government support payments, and total taxation revenue paid, for individuals who are employment full-time, employed part-time and not in the labour force due to ill health was quantified. Results: It was found that persons out of the labour force due to illness had significantly lower incomes ($218 per week as opposed to $1167 per week for those employed full-time), received significantly higher transfer payments, and paid significantly less tax than those employed full-time or part-time. This results in an annual national loss of income of over $17 billion, an annual national increase of $1.5 billion in spending on government support payments, and an annual loss of $2.1 billion in taxation revenue. Conclusions: Illness related early retirement has significant economic impacts on both the individual and on governments as a result of lost income, lost taxation revenue and increased government support payments. This paper has quantified the extent of these impacts for Australia.

Objectives: To project the number of people aged 45–64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030. Design: A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45–64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government. Cross-sectional outputs of a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030) which used the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009 as a base population and integrated outputs from two microsimulation models (Static Incomes Model and Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model), Treasury's population and labour force projections, and chronic disease trends data. Setting: Australian population aged 45–64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Outcome measures: Lost PLYs, lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue, lost GDP. Results: 18 100 people are out of the labour force due to diabetes in 2015, increasing to 21 400 in 2030 (18% increase). National costs consisted of a loss of $A467 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to $A807 million in 2030 (73% increase). For the government, extra annual welfare payments increased from $A311 million in 2015 to $A350 million in 2030 (13% increase); and lost annual taxation revenue increased from $A102 million in 2015 to $A166 million in 2030 (63% increase). A loss of $A2.1 billion in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to $A2.9 billion in 2030 attributable to diabetes through its impact on PLYs. Conclusions: Individuals incur significant costs of diabetes through lost PLYs and lost income in addition to disease burden through human suffering and healthcare costs. The government incurs extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue and lost GDP, along with direct healthcare costs ; Full Text

Objectives: To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Design, setting and participants: Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Main outcome measures: Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Results: We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%. Conclusions: There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers' health and work capacity. ; Full Text

Background Diabetes is a costly and debilitating disease. The aim of the study is to quantify the individual and national costs of diabetes resulting from people retiring early because of this disease, including lost income; lost income taxation, increased government welfare payments; and reductions in GDP. Methods A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the economic costs of early retirement due to diabetes. The study included all Australians aged 45–64 years in 2010 based on Australian Bureau of Statistics' Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers. A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in income, government welfare payments and taxation liabilities between people out of the labour force because of their diabetes and those employed full time with no chronic health condition. Results The median annual income of people who retired early because of their diabetes was significantly lower (AU$11 784) compared to those employed full time without a chronic health condition who received almost five times more income. At the national level, there was a loss of AU$384 million in individual earnings by those with diabetes, an extra AU$4 million spent in government welfare payments, a loss of AU$56 million in taxation revenue, and a loss of AU$1 324 million in GDP in 2010: all attributable to diabetes through its impact on labour force participation. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different diabetes prevalence rates on estimates of lost income, lost income taxation, increased government welfare payments, and reduced GDP. Conclusions Individuals bear the cost of lost income in addition to the burden of the disease. The Government endures the impacts of lost productivity and income taxation revenue, as well as spending more in welfare payments. These national costs are in addition to the Government's direct healthcare costs.

Abstract Background Diabetes is a costly and debilitating disease. The aim of the study is to quantify the individual and national costs of diabetes resulting from people retiring early because of this disease, including lost income; lost income taxation, increased government welfare payments; and reductions in GDP. Methods A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the economic costs of early retirement due to diabetes. The study included all Australians aged 45–64 years in 2010 based on Australian Bureau of Statistics' Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers . A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in income, government welfare payments and taxation liabilities between people out of the labour force because of their diabetes and those employed full time with no chronic health condition. Results The median annual income of people who retired early because of their diabetes was significantly lower (AU$11 784) compared to those employed full time without a chronic health condition who received almost five times more income. At the national level, there was a loss of AU$384 million in individual earnings by those with diabetes, an extra AU$4 million spent in government welfare payments, a loss of AU$56 million in taxation revenue, and a loss of AU$1 324 million in GDP in 2010: all attributable to diabetes through its impact on labour force participation. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different diabetes prevalence rates on estimates of lost income, lost income taxation, increased government welfare payments, and reduced GDP. Conclusions Individuals bear the cost of lost income in addition to the burden of the disease. The Government endures the impacts of lost productivity and income taxation revenue, as well as spending more in welfare payments. These national costs are in addition to the Government's direct healthcare costs.

Abstract Background Globally, diabetes is estimated to affect 246 million people and is increasing. In Australia diabetes has been made a national health priority. While the direct costs of treating diabetes are substantial, and rising, the indirect costs are considered greater. There is evidence that interventions to prevent diabetes are effective, and cost-effective, but the impact on labour force participation and income has not been assessed. In this study we quantify the potential impact of implementing a diabetes prevention program, using screening and either metformin or a lifestyle intervention on individual economic outcomes of pre-diabetic Australians aged 45-64. Methods The output of an epidemiological microsimulation model of the reduction in prevalence of diabetes from a lifestyle or metformin intervention, and another microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, of health and the associated impacts on labour force participation, personal income, savings, government revenue and expenditure were used to quantify the estimated outcomes of the two interventions. Results An additional 753 person years in the labour force would have been achieved from 1993 to 2003 for the male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003, if a lifestyle intervention had been introduced in 1983; with 890 person years for the equivalent female group. The impact on labour force participation was lower for the metformin intervention, and increased with age for both interventions. The male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003 would have earned an additional $30 million in income with the metformin intervention, and the equivalent female cohort would have earned an additional $25 million. If the lifestyle intervention was introduced, the same male and female cohorts would have earned an additional $34 million and $28 million respectively from 1993 to 2003. For the individuals involved, on average, males would have earned an additional $44,600 per year and females an additional $31,800 per year, if they had continued to work as a result of preventing diabetes. Conclusions In addition to improved health and wellbeing, considerable benefits to individuals, in terms of both additional working years and increased personal income, could be made by introducing either a lifestyle or metformin intervention to prevent diabetes.

Background: Globally, diabetes is estimated to affect 246 million people and is increasing. In Australia diabetes has been made a national health priority. While the direct costs of treating diabetes are substantial, and rising, the indirect costs are considered greater. There is evidence that interventions to prevent diabetes are effective, and cost-effective, but the impact on labour force participation and income has not been assessed. In this study we quantify the potential impact of implementing a diabetes prevention program, using screening and either metformin or a lifestyle intervention on individual economic outcomes of pre-diabetic Australians aged 45-64. Methods: The output of an epidemiological microsimulation model of the reduction in prevalence of diabetes from a lifestyle or metformin intervention, and another microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, of health and the associated impacts on labour force participation, personal income, savings, government revenue and expenditure were used to quantify the estimated outcomes of the two interventions. Results: An additional 753 person years in the labour force would have been achieved from 1993 to 2003 for the male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003, if a lifestyle intervention had been introduced in 1983; with 890 person years for the equivalent female group. The impact on labour force participation was lower for the metformin intervention, and increased with age for both interventions. The male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003 would have earned an additional $30 million in income with the metformin intervention, and the equivalent female cohort would have earned an additional $25 million. If the lifestyle intervention was introduced, the same male and female cohorts would have earned an additional $34 million and $28 million respectively from 1993 to 2003. For the individuals involved, on average, males would have earned an additional $44,600 per year and females an additional $31,800 per year, if they had continued to work as a result of preventing ...