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This paper re‐examines empirical evidence on the potency of Japanese monetary policy in the 1990s by comparing the estimated impacts of various proxies for monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomy. My empirical results demonstrate that surprise target changes modeled as proxies for monetary policy shocks had impacts on real output and financial variables over the period 1990–2001. I also show that the estimated effects of identified monetary policy shocks depend on whether or not the shocks are expected: the monetary policy effects on the economy are underestimated when the empirical models fail to control for the market expectation for the monetary policy stance.

AbstractPrevious studies decompose the current account and the real exchange rate into temporary and permanent shocks and argue that a temporary shock creates the combination of a current account surplus (deficit) and real exchange rate depreciation (appreciation). The present paper extends their framework by examining a possible structural break in current account and real exchange rate dynamics. Using G7 country data for 1980–2007, we find structural changes in two‐variable dynamics for all G7 countries during the 1990s. Temporary shocks have not been the main source of fluctuation in the current account since the 1990s. Our empirical results imply that the conventional mechanism has played a limited role in explaining the dynamics of the two variables.