Suchergebnisse

Explores the question of accuracy in the estimation of opinion distributions, based on results of surveys exploring respondent ([R] N = 808 adult Jews in Israel) estimates of public opinion on 24 issues. Results indicate that people are not very good in their exact numerical estimates, but they do much better in identifying the majority opinion on an issue. The role of motivation for accuracy is also examined through a survey experiment (N = 202 Rs). Findings suggest that the Rs tried harder when motivated, but did not improve their estimates, neither of the exact distribution nor of the majority opinion. 3 Tables, 45 References. Adapted from the source document.

This paper relies on panel data from Israel to test the spiral of silence theory's assumptions concerning overt expression of opinion. The research design provides a way to examine the effect of a changing climate of opinion on who speaks up and who silences out over time and changing circumstances. In addition, a multivariate approach is adopted to test the role of climate perceptions relative to other factors, and extend our understanding of public speech. Perceptions of the climate of opinion are found to be related to overt expression of opinion cross-sectionally; however, their impact is not consistent and weaker than other factors. General political involvement is most important, and also various sociodemographic characteristics of people are more powerful than climate perceptions. Over time this relationship does not hold, and the paper focuses on political discontent and value expression considerations.

This article explores the informational assumptions in Noelle-Neumann's spiral of silence theory. It is based empirically on data from in-depth interviews employing the "thinking aloud" protocols methodology, and survey data from Israel during the Intifada. Our respondents base their estimates of the climate of opinion on a broader, sounder, and more robust information array than the rather narrow and socially based overt opinion expression cues assumed by Noelle-Neumann. Different information cues are used for assessing opinion distributions and opinion trends. Aggregate trend analysis further supports the inconsistency between these alternative indicators of the climate of opinion. These results are discussed within the framework of structural constraints and major competing approaches to public opinion. The information environment is suggested to be the primary factor in specifying the role of social adjustment mechanisms versus event information in determining the direction in which public opinion evolves.

Data from a 1988 national survey of the Jewish adult population in Israel (N = 1,174) are used to examine the effect of variable levels of information on: patterns of pluralistic ignorance (PI); looking-glass perceptions (LGPs), ie, the % of respondents (Rs) perceiving their own opinion to be the majority opinion on an issue; & conservative bias across political issues (eg, the occupied territories, creation of a Palestinian state, population transfer as a solution to the Middle East conflict, & military reserve service). Specifically, the analysis seeks to understand how different levels of direct & indirect information about the distribution of political opinions relate to deviations from individual LGPs, & how these deviations affect the aggregate levels of PI. Analysis shows that LGPs & PI vary systematically with information available on issues; level of PI on an issue is a function of the shape of its distribution; & the greater the overlap between the majority or minority position on an issue, the lower the LGPs & PI levels. These findings indicate that the political continuum may be employed as a surrogate distribution in evaluating the majority opinion when direct information is scarce. It is concluded that conservative & liberal bias across issues may reflect social norms rather than individual tendencies to view others as more conservative than oneself. 3 Tables, 35 References. Adapted from the source document.

Palestinian and Israeli Public Opinion is based on a unique project: the Joint Israeli-Palestinian Poll (JIPP). Since 2000, Jacob Shamir and Khalil Shikaki have directed joint surveys among Israelis and Palestinians, providing a rare opportunity to examine public opinion on two sides of an intractable conflict. Adopting a two-level game theory approach, Shamir and Shikaki argue that public opinion is a multifaceted phenomenon and a critical player in international politics. They examine how the Israeli and Palestinian publics' assessments, expectations, mutual perceptions and misperceptions, and overt political action fed into domestic policy formation and international negotiations -- from the failure of the 2000 Camp David summit through the second Intifada and the elections of 2006. A discussion of the study's implications for policymaking and strategic framing of future peace agreements concludes this timely and informative book.

Palestinian and Israeli Public Opinion is based on a unique project: the Joint Israeli-Palestinian Poll (JIPP). Since 2000, Jacob Shamir and Khalil Shikaki have directed joint surveys among Israelis and Palestinians, providing a rare opportunity to examine public opinion on two sides of an intractable conflict. Adopting a two-level game theory approach, Shamir and Shikaki argue that public opinion is a multifaceted phenomenon and a critical player in international politics. They examine how the Israeli an.