Suchergebnisse

AbstractA scatterplot graph proves effective for representing data from a pooled time series.

In this paper, I attempt to tease out the implications of expected utility models on conflict resolution and peace science. I also consider the trade-conflict model of Polachek (1980) and its extensions, as one example of expected utility in international relations. I raise three questions concerning the impact of expected utility: (1) when does trade mitigate conflict? (2) can trade provoke conflict? (3) can trade induce cooperation? From a review of empirical findings, I consider the political content of the trade-conflict model in particular, and of expected utility models, in general. Subsequently, I discuss two additional questions: (4) how do exchange norms influence trade and conflict? and (5) what incentives exist to foster cooperation from trade under expected utility? I advance the critique that while expected utility underrepresents political actions and motives, the implicit content of politics in the trade-conflict model is predominantly realist. Given this tendency, expected utility in conflict resolution and peace science will invariably be used to model strategic and geostrategic concerns.

What explains presidential decision making on foreign policy? This question is addressed by assessing the relative influence of the international and domestic environments on presidential foreign policy choice. Unlike previous studies, which have focused on the relatively small number of presidential decisions to use force, the authors look at the broad range of conflictual and cooperative policies that presidents have pursued. Using data from the Conflict and Peace Data Bank, they estimate a model of presidential foreign policy choice over the years 1948 through 1978. The results indicate that presidents respond mostly to the rhythms of international events and not domestic politics when making foreign policy. In particular, little evidence is found to support the findings or earlier research that public approval influences presidential decision making on foreign policy.

BACKGROUND: Motor vehicle crash (MVC) fatalities have been declining while states passed various legislation targeting driver behaviors. This study assesses the impact of state laws on MVC fatality rates to determine which laws were effective. METHODS: Publically available data were collected on driver-related motor vehicle laws, law strengths, enactment years, and numbers of verified-trauma centers. Prospective data on crash characteristics and MVC fatalities 16 years or older from Fatality Analysis Reporting System 1999 to 2015 (n = 850) were obtained. Generalize Linear Autoregressive Modeling was used to assess the relative contribution of state laws to the crude MVC fatality rate while controlling for other factors. RESULTS: Lowering the minimum blood alcohol content (BAC) was associated with largest declines for all ages, especially the older cohorts: 16 years to 20 years (B = 0.23; p < 0.001), 21 years to 55 years (B = 1.7; p < 0.001); 56 years to 65 years (B = 3.2; p < 0.001); older than 65 years (B = 4.1; p < 0.001). Other driving under the influence laws were also significant. Per se BAC laws accompanying a reduced BAC further contributed to declines in crude fatality rates: 21 years to 55 years (B = −0.13; p < 0.001); older than 65 years (B = −0.17; p < 0.05). Driving under the influence laws enhancing the penalties, making revocation automatic, or targeting social hosts had mixed effects by age. Increased enforcement, mandatory education, vehicle impoundment, interlock devices, and underage alcohol laws showed no association with declining mortality rates. Red light camera and seatbelt laws were associated with declines in mortality rates for all ages except for older than 65 years cohort, but speed camera laws had no effect. Graduated Driver License laws were associated with declines for 16 years to 21 years (B = −0.06; p < 0.001) only. Laws targeting specific risks (elderly, motorcycles, marijuana) showed no effect on declining MVC mortality rates during the study period. ...