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International audience ; The expected growth in the demand for mobility and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an integrated analysis leveraging various assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, models project that bioenergy can provide in average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) in 2100 for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This is 9-62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through the electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100, compared to 10% for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 300 to 670 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

International audience ; The expected growth in the demand for mobility and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an integrated analysis leveraging various assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, models project that bioenergy can provide in average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) in 2100 for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This is 9-62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through the electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100, compared to 10% for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 300 to 670 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

International audience ; The expected growth in the demand for mobility and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an integrated analysis leveraging various assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, models project that bioenergy can provide in average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) in 2100 for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This is 9-62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through the electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100, compared to 10% for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 300 to 670 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

International audience ; The expected growth in the demand for mobility and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an integrated analysis leveraging various assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, models project that bioenergy can provide in average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) in 2100 for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This is 9-62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through the electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100, compared to 10% for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 300 to 670 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

International audience ; The expected growth in the demand for mobility and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an integrated analysis leveraging various assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, models project that bioenergy can provide in average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) in 2100 for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This is 9-62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through the electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100, compared to 10% for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 300 to 670 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a transition to a global climate regime between 2030 and 2050. We assume that the ensuing regime involves strong mitigation efforts but does not require late joiners to compensate for their initially higher emissions. Thus, climate targets are relaxed, and although staged accession can achieve significant reductions of global warming, the resulting climate outcome is unlikely to be consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees. The addition of China to the front runner coalition can reduce pre-2050 excess emissions by 20-30%, increasing the likelihood of staying below 2 degrees. Not accounting for potential co-benefits, the cost of front runner action is found to be lower for the EU than for China. Regions that delay their accession to the climate regime face a trade-off between reduced short term costs and higher transitional requirements due to larger carbon lock-ins and more rapidly increasing carbon prices during the accession period.