Long-Term Tree Regeneration of Fragmented Agroforestry Systems Under Varying Climatic Conditions
Iberian dehesas and montados are agroforestry systems protected by the European Habitats Directive due to high levels of biological diversity associated to their savannahlike structure. Tree scattering in dehesas, montados and other agroforestry systems is, however, known to compromise tree regeneration, although recent work suggests that it may protect tree populations from climate warming by alleviating plant-plant competition. We analyze how climatic conditions, tree isolation and their interactions influence the outcomes of regeneration stages, from flower production to early seedling establishment, using data gathered during the long-term monitoring (2001–2018) of ca. 300 Holm oak Quercus ilex trees located in central Spain. Holm oak reproductive effort, predispersal seed losses, and early seedling recruitment were sensitive to climate change, especially to year-round drought. Effort and early seedling recruitment decreased, while abortion and predispersal seed predation increased, with higher drought intensity. Spring warming increases pollination effectiveness, but had no further effect on acorn crops. Forest clearing seemed to have little scope to ameliorate these negative effects, as shown by weak or no interactive effects between the spatial configuration of trees (cover or isolation) and climate variables (spring temperature or drought intensity). Forest opening aimed at decreasing adult tree mortality under climate change scenarios would then have little or no effects on tree recruitment. Landscapescale rotations alternating shrub encroachment and thinning along periods adapted to changing climate are proposed as the main management option to preserve both oak forests and dehesas in the long term. ; This work was supported by the Projects QLK5-CT-2002-01495, FP7-KBBE-2008-227161, and PCIN-2016-159 (EU), 096/2002 and 003/2007 (Spanish National Parks), CGL2006-06647/BOS, CSD2008–00040, CGL2009-08430, CGL2010-22180-C03-03 and CGL2013-42271-P (Spanish National I + D + i Research Plans), and PGC2010-RNM-5782 (Andalucía regional government), now all ended, which provided partial financial support. TS-M was partially financed by a JAE-intro grant funded by the Spanish Research Council (CSIC). ; Peer reviewed