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In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Band 60, Heft 1, S. 89-105
ISSN: 0033-362X
In: Notfall & Rettungsmedizin, Band 4, Heft 4, S. 281-282
Specimens from 181 patients with diarrhoea were examined by a Military General Hospital in a 3-month period during deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia in 1990/1. DNA probes for heat labile (LT) and heat stable (ST) enterotoxin genes identified enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) in 47 of the specimens (26%) and 49 ETEC strains were isolated. The majority (55%) belonged to a novel ETEC serotype having the O-antigen 159 and a flagellar antigen designated as a provisional new type. They produced ST and the coli surface associated antigen (CS)6. Strains of serotype O6:H16 represented 22% of the ETEC examined. They produced ST, LT and CS3 together with either CS1 or CS2. The remaining ETEC belonged to seven O:H serotypes. Overall, ST was the only enterotoxin gene identified in 73% of the ETEC and 67% of the strains expressed CS6 in the absence of other colonization antigens. Resistance to three or more antibiotics was observed in 53% of the ETEC, including most of the O159 strains.
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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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