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By associating mobility with the unpredictability of social states, new measures of social mobility may be constructed. We propose a family of three state‐by‐state and aggregate (scalar) predictability measures. The first set of measures is based on the transition matrix. The second uses a sampling approach and permits statistical testing of the hypothesis of perfect mobility, providing a new justification for the use of the χ2 statistic. The third satisfies the demanding criterion of 'period consistency'. An empirical example demonstrates the usefulness of the new measures to complement existing ones in the literature.

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy