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Abstract
We use detailed data from Indonesian cities to study how variation in density within urban areas affects social capital. For identification, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and control for community averages of observed characteristics. Under plausible assumptions, these controls address sorting on observables and unobservables. We find that lower density increases trust in neighbours and community participation. We also find that lower density is associated with reduced interethnic tolerance, but this relationship is explained by sorting. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that crime in dense areas undermines community trust and participation, intensifying the negative impact of density.

We use a population resettlement program in Indonesia to identify long-run effects of intergroup contact on national integration. In the 1980s, the government relocated two million ethnically diverse migrants into hundreds of new communities. We find greater integration in fractionalized communities with many small groups, as measured by national language use at home, intermarriage, and children's name choices. However, in polarized communities with a few large groups, ethnic attachment increases and integration declines. Residential segregation dampens these effects. Social capital, public goods, and ethnic conflict follow similar patterns. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of localized contact in shaping identity. (JEL D63, J12, J15, J18, O15, R23, Z13)

We use a natural experiment in Indonesia to provide causal evidence on the role of location-specific human capital and skill transferability in shaping the spatial distribution of productivity. From 1979–1988, the Transmigration Program relocated two million migrants from rural Java and Bali to new rural settlements in the Outer Islands. Villages assigned migrants from regions with more similar agroclimatic endowments exhibit higher rice productivity and nighttime light intensity one to two decades later. We find some evidence of migrants' adaptation to agroclimatic change. Overall, our results suggest that regional productivity differences may overstate the potential gains from migration. (JEL J24, J43, J61, O13, O15, Q13, R23)

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One: Introduction -- The Order and Its Health -- Challenges with Measurement -- Methodology -- Structure of the Report -- Chapter Two: Participation in Formal Regional and International Institutions -- Steady Institutional Participation -- Integrating International Order into Domestic Institutions -- Increasingly Diverse and Informal Institutions -- Building New Institutions -- Regional Institutions -- Chapter Three: Economic Liberalization and Interdependence -- Trade and Financial Integration -- Capital Markets and Foreign Direct Investment -- Response to Crises -- Development Assistance -- Chapter Four: International Conflict and Peace -- Treaties of Pacific Settlement -- Territorial Changes Resulting from Conflict -- Status of Controls on Weapons of Mass Destruction -- Levels of Conflict -- Ability to Constrain Major War -- Chapter Five: Adherence to Liberal Norms and Values -- Democracy and Liberal Systems -- Human Rights -- Corruption and the Rule of Law -- Economic Growth and Democratic Stability -- Chapter Six: Major-Power Signaling and Policies Toward Order -- Russia -- China -- India -- Brazil -- Conclusion -- Chapter Seven: Public Attitudes Toward Elements of the Order -- Support for the Order's Rules and Institutions -- Support for Trade -- Support for Liberal Norms and Values -- Support for Internationalism -- The Rise of Nationalism -- Chapter Eight: Foundations of Order: Geopolitics and Ideology -- Geopolitical Trends -- Ideological Trends -- Conclusion: Causes for Worry -- Chapter Nine: Summing Up: The State of the Order -- The Importance of Ideas and Beliefs -- Recognizing Danger Signs -- Implications for Policy -- References

Preface --Figures --Tables --Summary --Acknowledgments --Abbreviations --1.Introduction:Organization of Document --2.Calibrating the Military Career Model:Background --Steady-State Modeling --Specifying Jobs --Acquisition Jobs --Operations and Staff Jobs:Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance --Satellite Systems --Space Control --Space Staff --Space Test --Space Warfare Command and Control Operations --Spacelift --Space Warning --Missile Defense Staff Jobs --IR Job Group --Education and Development Job Group --Summary --3.Results: Reducing the Number of IR Positions:Baseline Results:End Strength and Grade Distribution --Retention --Average Fill Rates of Jobs --Changing IRs: Results Overview --Detailed Results: IR Reduction of 50 Percent:Changes in Fill Rates of Different Types of Jobs --Effects on Individuals:Retention Patterns for Officers with Different Types of IR Experiences --Diversity of Officer Experiences --Number of Operational Positions --Counterfactuals: How Do IRs Affect Individual Career Histories --4.Conclusions and Recommendations:Effects of IRs on the Space Career Field --Effects of IRs on Space Officer Careers --Recommendations --Appendix. Statistics on Jobs in Model --References.