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Abstract Background Well-organized administrative data with large numbers of cases (building on linked files from several government departments) and a population registry facilitate new studies of population health and child development. Analyses of family relationships and a number of outcomes--educational achievement, health, teen pregnancy, and receipt of income assistance--are relatively easy to conduct using several birth cohorts. Looking both at means/proportions and at sibling correlations enriches our study of opportunity and well-being in late adolescence. With observational research possibly exaggerating the causal effects of risk factors, sibling comparisons involving individuals sharing both many family characteristics and many genes help deal with such criticisms. Methods This paper uses a rich dataset from one Canadian province (Manitoba) covering a wide range of geographical areas (cities to rural regions). Influences on opportunity and well-being are analyzed looking at both means/proportions and sibling correlations. We measure a variety of outcomes that may reflect different causal influences. A creative application of linear programming advances the use of data on residential location. Results Predicting educational achievement using available variables was much easier than predicting adolescent health status (R-square of .200 versus R-square of .043). Low levels of educational achievement, high levels of teenage pregnancy, and high sibling correlations outside Winnipeg and within Winnipeg's lower income areas highlight inequalities across socioeconomic and geographic backgrounds. Stratifying our analyses by different variables, such as income quintiles, reveals differences in means and correlations within outcomes and across groups. Particular events--changes in mother's marital status and in place of residence--were associated with less favorable outcomes in late adolescence. Conclusion Our findings suggest a paradox: Canadian developmental outcomes through late adolescence appear quite similar to those in the United States, even though intergenerational mobility in Canada is closer to mobility in the Nordic countries than to that in the United States.

Abstract Background Well-organized administrative data with large numbers of cases (building on linked files from several government departments) and a population registry facilitate new studies of population health and child development. Analyses of family relationships and a number of outcomes--educational achievement, health, teen pregnancy, and receipt of income assistance--are relatively easy to conduct using several birth cohorts. Looking both at means/proportions and at sibling correlations enriches our study of opportunity and well-being in late adolescence. With observational research possibly exaggerating the causal effects of risk factors, sibling comparisons involving individuals sharing both many family characteristics and many genes help deal with such criticisms. Methods This paper uses a rich dataset from one Canadian province (Manitoba) covering a wide range of geographical areas (cities to rural regions). Influences on opportunity and well-being are analyzed looking at both means/proportions and sibling correlations. We measure a variety of outcomes that may reflect different causal influences. A creative application of linear programming advances the use of data on residential location. Results Predicting educational achievement using available variables was much easier than predicting adolescent health status (R-square of .200 versus R-square of .043). Low levels of educational achievement, high levels of teenage pregnancy, and high sibling correlations outside Winnipeg and within Winnipeg's lower income areas highlight inequalities across socioeconomic and geographic backgrounds. Stratifying our analyses by different variables, such as income quintiles, reveals differences in means and correlations within outcomes and across groups. Particular events--changes in mother's marital status and in place of residence--were associated with less favorable outcomes in late adolescence. Conclusion Our findings suggest a paradox: Canadian developmental outcomes through late adolescence appear quite similar to those in the United States, even though intergenerational mobility in Canada is closer to mobility in the Nordic countries than to that in the United States. ; Peer Reviewed

IntroductionStudies on the relationship between exposure to maternal depression in early childhood and childhood development have been limited by small samples, lack of information on timing of maternal depression, and use of a composite measure of childhood development.
Objectives and ApproachWe linked multiple Manitoba datasets to examine the relationship between exposure to maternal depression in early childhood and childhood development at school entry across five domains, and age at exposure to maternal depression on developmental outcomes using a population-based cohort (n = 52,103). Maternal depression was defined using physician visits, hospitalizations, and pharmaceutical data, while developmental vulnerability was assessed using the well-validated Early Development Instrument. Relative risk of developmental vulnerability was assessed using log-binomial regression models, adjusted for maternal and childhood characteristics at the birth of the child.
ResultsChildren exposed to maternal depression before age 5 had a 17% higher risk of having at least one developmental vulnerability at school entry than children not exposed to such depression before age 5. Exposure to maternal depression before age 5 was most strongly associated with social competence (aRR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.20, 1.38), physical health and well-being (aRR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.20, 1.36), and emotional maturity (aRR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.18, 1.37). For most developmental domains, exposure to maternal depression before age 1 and between ages 4 and 5 had the greatest association with developmental vulnerability.
Conclusion / ImplicationsOur findings that children exposed to maternal depression were at higher risk of developmental vulnerability at school entry is consistent with previous studies. However, we found that the association between exposure to maternal depression and development varied across developmental domains, and the relationship varied depending on the age of exposure to maternal depression. Ongoing analyses of discordant cousins will shed more light on the causal nature of this relationship.

The authors review their 30 years' experience in determining the best research applications for routinely collected data from ministries of health, education and social services. They describe the rich research opportunities afforded by 40 years of data on health – i.e., every patient contact with hospitals, physicians, drugs and more – from the problems encountered in convincing an academic journal that meaningful findings could be culled from information collected on paying bills and tracking patients, through studies on education (enrolment, grades, standardized tests for grades 1 to 12), family characteristics (residential moves, marital formation and breakdown, number and timing of births) and social services (welfare recipients, children taken into care, protection services offered children in the family). They also detail how and why the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy was founded, and how it has continued through multiple ministerial, deputy and government changes.

ObjectiveThe objective is to examine the association between trajectories of childhood residential and school mobility and academic achievement (literacy, numeracy) in Grade 3 using linked whole-population administrative data in Manitoba, Canada. Secondarily, we assessed childhood residential/school mobility based on neighbourhood income levels (moving in/out of low- or mid-/high-income neighbourhoods).
ApproachThis retrospective cohort study used linkable, de-identified administrative data (health, education, national census, provincial survey) from the provincial Population Research Data Repository housed at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy (MCHP). Among kindergarteners from 2005 to 2014 (n = 83,894), those not having continuous residency in Manitoba, valid education assessments, and relevant family-level covariates were excluded. We followed this eligible cohort from kindergarten to Grade 3 based on various neighbourhood income trajectories of residential and school mobility. To assess Grade 3 literacy and numeracy scores based on trajectories, log-binomial regression models were conducted using SAS® version 9.4.
ResultsThe total cohort included 36,754 children; at the end of kindergarten, 14.2% resided in low-income neighbourhoods, and 84.8% lived in mid-/high-income neighbourhoods. Moving between two low-income neighborhoods between kindergarten to Grade 3 was associated with an increased risk of poor Grade 3 numeracy and literacy scores (numeracy aRR=1.39 [1.16,1.67]; literacy aRR=1.31 [1.08,1.59]). When moving between neighborhood income levels, the association was stronger for children moving into low-income neighbourhoods (e.g., mid-/high-income to low-income: numeracy aRR=1.41 [1.19,1.67]) than children moving into mid/high-income neighbourhoods (e.g., low-income to mid-/high-income: numeracy aRR=1.31 [1.08,1.59]). Changing schools between kindergarten and Grade 3 was also associated with poorer numeracy and literacy scores in Grade 3 (numeracy aRR=1.31 [1.22,1.40]; literacy aRR=1.34 [1.24,1.44]); however, the strength varied based on residential mobility patterns.
ConclusionMoving homes/schools can differentially impact children's educational attainment depending upon the income level of residing neighborhood(s). Stakeholders should recognize different levels of risks related to mobility and provide support accordingly to reduce the adverse impact. Support systems should be tailored to not only children but also families and neighbourhoods.

Different categories of services present different policy issues for financing health care. This conceptual paper suggests four categories: (1) public health services for the entire population; (2) basic health care to individuals, where anticipated costs are small and relatively homogeneous; (3) potentially catastrophically expensive services to individuals, where costs are skewed but not predictable; and (4) potentially catastrophically expensive services to individuals, where anticipated costs are both skewed and predictable. Using Canadian and Manitoba data to illustrate some implications of the distribution of health expenditures, we suggest policies suitable for one category of services may not necessarily work for others. The small proportion responsible for incurring high health expenditures are not attractive candidates for voluntary risk pools, particularly in competitive markets.

Introduction: When designing prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort studies, investigators must make decisions about study duration (i.e. length of follow-up) and frequency of outcome measurement. The impact of these decisions have been previously investigated in the prospective setting, but have not been described for retrospective cohort studies.

Objectives: To examine the impact and potential challenges of longitudinal design decisions in retrospective cohort studies and illustrate the effects of varying study duration and frequency of outcome measurement in the retrospective setting using a numeric example.

Methods: Linked administrative data from Manitoba was used. The cohort included all mothers who experienced the death of an infant between April 1, 1999 and March 31, 2012 and a matched (3:1) group of mothers who did not experience death. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model differences in the trend in the number of healthcare contacts for the two groups. Holding sample size constant, the model was fit to the data for combinations of duration and frequency. Estimated standard errors and regression coefficients were compared.

Results: A total of 2576 mothers were included; 644 experienced death of an infant and 1932 were matched to this group. Thirteen combinations of frequency (1, 2, 3, 4 periods/year) and duration (1, 2, 3, 4 years) were compared. As frequency increased from 1 to 4 periods/year, the standard error of the group-time-time interaction decreased up to 98.9%. As duration increased from 1 to 4 years, the standard error of the interaction decreased up to 96.9%. As frequency and duration increased, the coefficients trended toward zero.

Conclusions: Retrospective designs using administrative data offer greater flexibility to select time-related design elements than prospective designs, but present potential new challenges. Recommendations about how to select and report time-related design decisions in retrospective cohort studies should be included in reporting guidelines.