Suchergebnisse

The paper proposes a panel model to the determinants of capital flow volatility to a group of 18 emerging market economies (EME) in the period of 2000 to 2011. It studies the robustness of the model regarding different volatility measures; analyses several types of gross capital inflow; focusing the role of government institutional quality and the development of domestic financial system (banks, insurance companies, and capital markets – stocks, bonds and derivatives). The EME analyzed represented roughly 95% of the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global – EMBIG in January 2013, being the biggest destination to international capital flow to EME according to the report of the Bank for International Settlements - BIS (2009). The main conclusion suggests that a reduction of capital flow volatility can be achieved by the adoption of policies that improve government institutional quality and promote development, stability and efficiency of the domestic financial system. ; O artigo propõe um modelo de painel para os determinantes da volatilidade do fluxo de capital para um grupo de 18 economias emergentes no período de 2000-2011. Avaliamos a robustez do modelo em relação a diferentes medidas de volatilidade e a vários tipos de fluxo de entrada de capital; e enfatizamos o papel do desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro doméstico e da qualidade institucional do governo. Os emergentes analisados representavam em Janeiro de 2013 aproximadamente 95% do índice EMBIG, além de constituírem as maiores economias emergente para destino do fluxo de capital internacional segundo relatório do Banco de Compensações Internacionais - BIS (2009). Os principais resultados sugerem uma redução da volatilidade do fluxo de capital mediante adoção de políticas voltadas para melhorias na qualidade institucional do governo e que promovam o desenvolvimento, estabilidade e eficiência do sistema financeiro doméstico.

Resumo O presente artigo tem como objetivo analisar o papel do sistema financeiro doméstico como mitigador de eventos de paradas súbitas e condicionante de fluxos de capital de um grupo de 14 economias emergentes no período de 1999-2013, em especial em face de cenários externos desfavoráveis como aumento dos juros internacionais e aversão ao risco global. Os países analisados - Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Indonésia, Malásia, México, Peru, Filipinas, Rússia, África do Sul, Tailândia, Turquia e Ucrânia representavam, em agosto de 2014, aproximadamente 80% do índice EMBIPLUS e 60% do índice EMBIGLOBAL. Procurou-se distinguir o efeito sobre diversos tipos de fluxos de capital: Fluxo de entrada de Investimento Externo Direto, Fluxo de entrada de Investimento em Carteira e Fluxo Líquido, com análise de robustez para período desde 1990 e aumento do número de países emergentes. O principal resultado suporta evidências que o fortalecimento do sistema financeiro doméstico - medido com a capitalização bursátil em proporção do PIB - propicia aumento dos fluxos de entrada de capital de todos os tipos de fluxos em todos os modelos analisados, reduzindo a probabilidade de ocorrência de parada súbita do fluxo de Investimento Externo Direto e em alguns casos do fluxo de Carteira, o que motiva políticas públicas que incentivem o desenvolvimento e fortalecimento deste setor. Estimativas também destacam o papel dos fundamentos domésticos, tão importantes quanto os fatores globais nos condicionantes de fluxo de capital e na ocorrência paradas súbitas. Este fato motiva políticas públicas que incentivem o fortalecimento e desenvolvimento das instituições nos países emergentes, e ressalta o papel dos governos na captação de recursos externos.

The owner of a petroleum exploration concession in Brazil has an investment option until the expiration date fixed by the governmental agency, which can be extended by additional cost. The value of these rights and the optimal investment timing are calculated by solving a stochastic optimal control problem of an American call option with extendible maturities. The uncertainty of the oil prices is modeled as a mix diffusion-jump process. Normal information arrival generates continuous mean-reverting process for oil prices, whereas a random abnormal information generates a discrete jump of random size. Comparisons are performed with the popular geometric Brownian process and also the quantification and analysis of alternative timing policies for the petroleum sector.

Petroleum exploration in Brazil is performed throughout a bidding process coordinated by the National Petroleum Agency (NPA), where the exploration and production (E&P) firms need to evaluate concessions performing financial and economic analyses routinely. Since oil is a public resource with economic and strategic value for the country, the governmental agency should have control over the financial and economic pricing techniques. The E&P firm holds the investment opportunity to develop a delineated oilfield. The oilfield development investment plan shall be presented to NPA until a specific date or the oilfield rights returns back to NPA. The oilfield can be developed up to a specific time through three mutually exclusive alternatives representing the oilfield production and exploration scale. The developed oilfield is proportional to the price of oil, which evolves according to a stochastic differential equation. The E&P firm considers three mutually exclusive alternatives of scale to exploit the oilfield, with different investment costs. The investment opportunity is analogous to an American call option with finite time to maturity and payoff equal to that of the developed oilfield (underlying asset) minus the development cost of the optimal alternative (exercise price). We obtain the investment opportunity value and the optimal development rule for the oilfield, i.e., the optimal development timing and the optimal production scale as function of the current oil price and the economic uncertainty of the market.

The objective of this study is to analyze the determinants of private investment, especially private participation in infrastructure, focusing on the institutional quality of emerging economies. The emerging economies analyzed (Argentina, Brazil, China, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay and Venezuela) accounted for approximately 80% of the EMBIPLUS index and 60% of the EMBIGLOBAL index, reference indexes of the J.P. Morgan bank correspond in August 2016. The results show that most of the institutional variables analyzed, in particular, economic freedom and regulatory quality, actually explain the number of projects and the investment figure with private participation in infrastructure for the group of emerging economies analyzed in the period 1990-2015 even controlling for liquidity and global risk shocks.