Suchergebnisse

Prediction of success in a special program is often used to guide the selection of program participants and the treatment that they receive. Statistical analysis can be instrumental in developing such predictions, but if the analysis is based on data that resulted from the special selectivity built into the program, the predictions can be misleading and validation tests can be less informative than is commonly realized. This argument is developed and applied to problems in criminal justice administration. Data from pretrial release in federal district court is used as an illustration.

This article describes the results of a sentencing legislation and policy simulation conducted to project the federal inmate population. The simulation model was developed in response to a congressional mandate that the United States Sentencing Commission evaluate the impact of its sentencing guidelines on the future federal prison population. In mid-1987 the model was used to project changes in the use of probation and prison length of stay. The model accurately projected the impact of dramatic changes in sentencing structure that increased the federal prison population by 52% in the 4 years since the end of calendar year 1987. The article also discusses the interrelationships between sentencing legislation, sentencing practices, changes in criminal justice resource allocations, prison population "caps," and the use of an impact model to inform the public policy debate surrounding the use of prison as a sanction.

A national multi-site monitoring system for determining prevalence of alcohol and drug involvement in arrestees sought to refine the screening for substance dependence among persons arrested and incarcerated in local jails. Fifteen items were selected from the content of existing alcohol and drug abuse screens. These items were evaluated against a detailed diagnostic interview covering criteria of the DSM-IV. A total of 310 prisoners incarcerated within the previous 48 hours were recruited as subjects. Almost 65% of the subjects had a positive diagnosis of dependence for one or more substances. A six-item screen identified by the acronym UNCOPE emerged as the best set of screening items for identifying dependence on alcohol and/or drugs. The UNCOPE had sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 83% for the sample as a whole. It performed similarly irrespective of gender or ethnicity and appears to have potential utility in a wide range of populations.