Suchergebnisse

"The UN's Net Zero goal is to limit the rise in mean global temperatures to 1.5°C by 2050. They suggested that it could be achieved by reducing global emissions by 45 percent by 2030, then to zero by 2050. This book is a new stress test in applied econometric analysis of oil producing countries. It includes positive economic analysis using a sample of 11 OPEC countries from 1970 to 2019; and presents an empirical analysis of OPEC's operating model - the state-owned oil monopoly, hence its dilemma. The book estimates a production function for every OPEC country, then uses counterfactual scenarios to show that OPEC 's strategy to peg the price of oil by cutting oil production by more than 45 percent by 2030, results in a reduction of permanent income, which has negative macroeconomic consequences, such as on social welfare and deadweight losses. The book begins by defining the dilemma, describing the stylized facts of OPEC economies and oil production organizations, their political environments, the dominant features of these economies such as oil rent; productivity; oil-dependence; and the long-run and cyclical correlation between oil and output. It provides a microeconomic foundation for the macro analysis by testing the monopoly vs. competition price mechanism. Finally, there is a discussion of the policy options available to OPEC to deal with the UN's Race to Zero. Students, scholars and researchers will benefit from the innovative ideas presented in the book and it will be a useful guide for policymakers and global governance experts"--

"The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet, the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing, policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies, i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues such as savings and productivity, and from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to, adversely, affect oil supply and demand, and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes and think tanks"--

"This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation - targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory's policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions."

"The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet, the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing, policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies, i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues such as savings and productivity, and from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to, adversely, affect oil supply and demand, and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes and think tanks"--