Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 37, Heft 2, S. 531-546
ISSN: 0169-2070
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 37, Heft 2, S. 531-546
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Eastern European economics, Band 42, Heft 3, S. 5-22
ISSN: 0012-8775
World Affairs Online
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 34, Heft 4, S. 809-821
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Open Economies Review, Band 29, S. 261-281
The paper investigates whether the size of the rental market affects house prices fluctuations or the volatility of construction sector activity over the business cycle. For that purpose we construct a database of variables describing the housing sector in a group of twelve initial euro area members and ten other OECD countries over the years 1995-2014 and conduct a series of panel regressions. We find that a developed rental market attenuates fluctuations in the housing sector, especially for the common currency area sample. We claim that differences among monetary union countries in terms of rental market developments can be destabilizing as they might lead to heterogeneous response to common shocks.
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 31, Heft 1, S. 1-19
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1420
SSRN
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 24, Heft 3, S. 498-512
ISSN: 0169-2070
SSRN
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 268-284
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: CAMA Working Paper No. 47/2020
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Working paper
In: Revue internationale du travail, Band 155, Heft 4, S. 561-588
ISSN: 1564-9121
RésuméLes auteurs examinent l'influence de l'emploi temporaire sur le chômage au sein de l'Union économique et monétaire (UEM). Ils effectuent pour cela une analyse par régression dynamique en panel qui porte sur onze pays (1995–2013) et repose sur des indicateurs des institutions du marché du travail. Celle‐ci fait apparaître un effet robuste et significatif du travail temporaire sur la dynamique du chômage, qui réagit de façon plus intense mais moins persistante aux chocs sur la production en cas de dualisme prononcé. Les auteurs proposent d'évoluer vers un système de contrat unique pour renforcer la stabilité à l'échelon des pays et de la zone euro.
In: International labour review, Band 155, Heft 4, S. 509-534
ISSN: 1564-913X
AbstractThis article investigates whether the varying prevalence of temporary employment contracts across Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries can explain their different unemployment dynamics. Using a database of labour market institutions, dynamic panel regressions are carried out for 11 eurozone countries for 1995–2013. Labour market duality – i.e. the co‐existence of permanent and temporary contracts – is found to have a robust and significant effect on unemployment dynamics: a high duality rate increases the response of unemployment to output shocks while decreasing its persistence. The authors suggest that introducing a "single contract" could improve stability at both eurozone and country level.
In: Revista internacional del trabajo, Band 135, Heft 4, S. 551-577
ISSN: 1564-9148
ResumenSe investiga si la incidencia del empleo temporal en países de la Unión Económica y Monetaria europea explica las divergencias en las dinámicas del desempleo. Con datos de 11 países de la zona del euro para 1995–2013 y regresiones de panel, los autores encuentran un efecto robusto y significativo de la dualidad laboral –coexistencia de contratos temporales y permanentes– en el desempleo: la primera intensifica la reacción del segundo a las fluctuaciones del producto, aunque disminuye su duración, lo cual genera más problemas de divergencia en una unión monetaria. Una armonización coordinada mediante la introducción del ≪contrato único≫ aumentaría la estabilidad tanto nacional como de la eurozona.
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1110
SSRN
In: Energy economics, Band 137, S. 107760
ISSN: 1873-6181