Suchergebnisse

This work was funded by The Wellcome Trust and The Royal Society grant numbers wtvm055984 (KAL) and 107653/Z/15/Z (JG), The Natural Environment Research Council grant number NE/K009524/1 (AG), and The European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant number 614725-PATHPHYLODYN (OGP). ; With extremely short generation times and high mutability, many viruses can rapidly evolve and adapt to changing environments. This ability is generally beneficial to viruses as it allows them to evade host immune responses, evolve new behaviours, and exploit ecological niches. However, natural selection typically generates adaptation in response to the immediate selection pressures that a virus experiences in its current host. Consequently, we argue that some viruses, particularly those characterised by long durations of infection and ongoing replication, may be susceptible to short-sighted evolution, whereby a virus' adaptation to its current host will be detrimental to its onward transmission within the host population. Here we outline the concept of short-sighted viral evolution and provide examples of how it may negatively impact viral transmission among hosts. We also propose that viruses that are vulnerable to short-sighted evolution may exhibit strategies that minimise its effects. We speculate on the various mechanisms by which this may be achieved, including viral life history strategies that result in low rates of within-host evolution, or the establishment of a 'germline' lineage of viruses that avoids short-sighted evolution. These concepts provide a new perspective on the way in which some viruses have been able to establish and maintain global pandemics. ; Publisher PDF ; Peer reviewed

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

International audience ; Background : The 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data.Methods : We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level.Findings : The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05–0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones ( p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019.Conclusion : We characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict ...

International audience ; Background : The 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data.Methods : We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level.Findings : The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05–0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones ( p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019.Conclusion : We characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. Such assessment is important to understand if and how such conflict variables could be used to inform the outbreak response. We found that while these variables can help characterize long-term challenges and susceptibilities of the different regions they provide little insight on the short-term dynamics of EVD transmission.

BACKGROUND: The 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data. METHODS: We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level. FINDINGS: The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05–0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones (p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019. CONCLUSION: We characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. ...

HCV genotype 4 is prevalent in many African countries, yet little is known about the genotype׳s epidemic history on the continent. We present a comprehensive study of the molecular epidemiology of genotype 4. To address the deficit of data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) we PCR amplified 60 new HCV isolates from the DRC, resulting in 33 core- and 48 NS5B-region sequences. Our data, together with genotype 4 database sequences, were analysed using Bayesian phylogenetic approaches. We find three well-supported intra-genotypic lineages and estimate that the genotype 4 common ancestor existed around 1733 (1650–1805). We show that genotype 4 originated in central Africa and that multiple lineages have been exported to north Africa since ~1850, including subtype 4a which dominates the epidemic in Egypt. We speculate on the causes of the historical intra-continental spread of genotype 4, including population movements during World War 2.

Human parvovirus 4 infections are primarily associated with parenteral exposure in western countries. By ELISA, we demonstrate frequent seropositivity for antibody to parvovirus 4 viral protein 2 among adult populations throughout sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso, 37%; Cameroon, 25%; Democratic Republic of the Congo, 35%; South Africa, 20%), which implies existence of alternative transmission routes.

Human parvovirus 4 infections are primarily associated with parenteral exposure in western countries. By ELISA, we demonstrate frequent seropositivity for antibody to parvovirus 4 viral protein 2 among adult populations throughout sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso, 37%; Cameroon, 25%; Democratic Republic of the Congo, 35%; South Africa, 20%), which implies existence of alternative transmission routes.

Abstract
Human mobility is strongly associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 via air travel on an international scale and with population mixing and the number of people moving between locations on a local scale. However, these conclusions are drawn mostly from observations in the context of the global north where international and domestic connectivity is heavily influenced by the air travel network; scenarios where land-based mobility can also dominate viral spread remain understudied. Furthermore, research on the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has mostly focused on national- or regional-scale implementations, leaving gaps in our understanding of the potential benefits of implementing NPIs at higher granularity. Here, we use Chile as a model to explore the role of human mobility on disease spread within the global south; the country implemented a systematic genomic surveillance program and NPIs at a very high spatial granularity. We combine viral genomic data, anonymized human mobility data from mobile phones and official records of international travelers entering the country to characterize the routes of importation of different variants, the relative contributions of airport and land border importations, and the real-time impact of the country's mobility network on the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2. The introduction of variants which are dominant in neighboring countries (and not detected through airport genomic surveillance) is predicted by land border crossings and not by air travelers, and the strength of connectivity between comunas (Chile's lowest administrative divisions) predicts the time of arrival of imported lineages to new locations. A higher stringency of local NPIs was also associated with fewer domestic viral importations. Our analysis sheds light on the drivers of emerging respiratory infectious disease spread outside of air travel and on the consequences of disrupting regular movement patterns at lower spatial scales.

Abstract
During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced primarily by the multiscale structure of human mobility. However, during the COVID-19 epidemic, public health responses typically did not take into consideration the explicit spatial structure of human mobility when designing nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs were applied primarily at national or regional scales. Here, we use weekly anonymized and aggregated human mobility data and spatially highly resolved data on COVID-19 cases at the municipality level in Mexico to investigate how behavioral changes in response to the pandemic have altered the spatial scales of transmission and interventions during its first wave (March–June 2020). We find that the epidemic dynamics in Mexico were initially driven by exports of COVID-19 cases from Mexico State and Mexico City, where early outbreaks occurred. The mobility network shifted after the implementation of interventions in late March 2020, and the mobility network communities became more disjointed while epidemics in these communities became increasingly synchronized. Our results provide dynamic insights into how to use network science and epidemiological modeling to inform the spatial scale at which interventions are most impactful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and infectious diseases in general.

We applied metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to detect Zaire Ebola virus (EBOV) and other potential pathogens from whole-blood samples from 70 patients with suspected Ebola hemorrhagic fever during a 2014 outbreak in Boende, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and correlated these findings with clinical symptoms. Twenty of 31 patients (64.5%) tested in Kinshasa, DRC, were EBOV positive by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). Despite partial degradation of sample RNA during shipping and handling, mNGS followed by EBOV-specific capture probe enrichment in a U.S. genomics laboratory identified EBOV reads in 22 of 70 samples (31.4%) versus in 21 of 70 (30.0%) EBOV-positive samples by repeat qRT-PCR (overall concordance = 87.1%). Reads from Plasmodium falciparum (malaria) were detected in 21 patients, of which at least 9 (42.9%) were coinfected with EBOV. Other positive viral detections included hepatitis B virus (n = 2), human pegivirus 1 (n = 2), Epstein-Barr virus (n = 9), and Orungo virus (n = 1), a virus in the Reoviridae family. The patient with Orungo virus infection presented with an acute febrile illness and died rapidly from massive hemorrhage and dehydration. Although the patient's blood sample was negative by EBOV qRT-PCR testing, identification of viral reads by mNGS confirmed the presence of EBOV coinfection. In total, 9 new EBOV genomes (3 complete genomes, and an additional 6 ≥50% complete) were assembled. Relaxed molecular clock phylogenetic analysis demonstrated a molecular evolutionary rate for the Boende strain 4 to 10× slower than that of other Ebola lineages. These results demonstrate the utility of mNGS in broad-based pathogen detection and outbreak surveillance.

The global plan to eradicate hepatitis C virus (HCV) led by the World Health Organization outlines the use of highly effective direct‐acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) to achieve elimination by 2030. Identifying individuals with active disease and investigation of the breadth of diversity of the virus in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is essential as genotypes in this region (where very few clinical trials have been carried out) are distinct from those found in other parts of the world. We undertook a population‐based, nested case‐control study in Uganda and obtained additional samples from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to estimate the prevalence of HCV, assess strategies for disease detection using serological and molecular techniques, and characterize genetic diversity of the virus. Using next‐generation and Sanger sequencing, we aimed to identify strains circulating in East and Central Africa. A total of 7,751 Ugandan patients were initially screened for HCV, and 20 PCR‐positive samples were obtained for sequencing. Serological assays were found to vary significantly in specificity for HCV. HCV strains detected in Uganda included genotype (g) 4k, g4p, g4q, and g4s and a newly identified unassigned g7 HCV strain. Two additional unassigned g7 strains were identified in patients originating from DRC (one partial and one full open reading frame sequence). These g4 and g7 strains contain nonstructural (ns) protein 3 and 5A polymorphisms associated with resistance to DAAs in other genotypes. Clinical studies are therefore indicated to investigate treatment response in infected patients. Conclusion: Although HCV prevalence and genotypes have been well characterized in patients in well‐resourced countries, clinical trials are urgently required in SSA, where highly diverse g4 and g7 strains circulate. ; Supported by the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_UU_12014/1) and Wellcome Trust (102789/Z/13/A) (to E.T.). M.S. is funded by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute (WT098051), the National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, the African Partnership for Chronic Disease Research (MRC UK partnership grant number MR/K013491/1), and the UK MRC (G0901213‐92157, G0801566). P.K. is funded by the UK MRC and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement. J.S. is funded by the MRC Confidence in Concept award to the University of Glasgow (MC PC 16045). G.M. is a Gates Cambridge Scholar supported by the Gates Cambridge Trust.

The global plan to eradicate hepatitis C virus (HCV) led by the World Health Organization outlines the use of highly effective direct‐acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) to achieve elimination by 2030. Identifying individuals with active disease and investigation of the breadth of diversity of the virus in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is essential as genotypes in this region (where very few clinical trials have been carried out) are distinct from those found in other parts of the world. We undertook a population‐based, nested case‐control study in Uganda and obtained additional samples from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to estimate the prevalence of HCV, assess strategies for disease detection using serological and molecular techniques, and characterize genetic diversity of the virus. Using next‐generation and Sanger sequencing, we aimed to identify strains circulating in East and Central Africa. A total of 7,751 Ugandan patients were initially screened for HCV, and 20 PCR‐positive samples were obtained for sequencing. Serological assays were found to vary significantly in specificity for HCV. HCV strains detected in Uganda included genotype (g) 4k, g4p, g4q, and g4s and a newly identified unassigned g7 HCV strain. Two additional unassigned g7 strains were identified in patients originating from DRC (one partial and one full open reading frame sequence). These g4 and g7 strains contain nonstructural (ns) protein 3 and 5A polymorphisms associated with resistance to DAAs in other genotypes. Clinical studies are therefore indicated to investigate treatment response in infected patients. Conclusion: Although HCV prevalence and genotypes have been well characterized in patients in well‐resourced countries, clinical trials are urgently required in SSA, where highly diverse g4 and g7 strains circulate.

Background and rationale for the study: The global plan to eradicate hepatitis C (HCV) led by the World Health Organisation (WHO) outlines the use of highly effective direct‐acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) to achieve elimination by 2030. Identifying individuals with active disease and investigation of the breadth of diversity of the virus sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is essential as genotypes in this region (where very few clinical trials have been carried out) are distinct from those found in other parts of the world. We undertook a population‐based nested case‐control study in Uganda and obtained additional samples from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), to estimate the prevalence of HCV, assess strategies for disease detection using serological and molecular techniques, and characterise genetic diversity of the virus. Using next generation (NGS) and Sanger sequencing, we aimed to identify strains circulating in East and Central Africa. Main results: 7751 Ugandan patients were initially screened for HCV and 20 PCR positive samples obtained for sequencing. Serological assays were found to vary significantly in specificity for HCV. HCV strains detected in Uganda included genotypes (g) 4k, 4p, 4q and 4s and a new unassigned genotype 7 HCV strain. Two additional unassigned g7 strains were identified in patients originating from DRC (one partial and one full ORF sequence). These g4 and 7 strains contain NS3 and NS5A polymorphisms associated with resistance to DAAs in other genotypes. Clinical studies are therefore indicated to investigate treatment response in infected patients. Conclusion: While HCV prevalence and genotypes have been well characterised in patients in well‐resourced countries, clinical trials are urgently required in SSA where highly diverse g4 and 7 strains circulate.

The global plan to eradicate hepatitis C virus (HCV) led by the World Health Organization outlines the use of highly effective direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) to achieve elimination by 2030. Identifying individuals with active disease and investigation of the breadth of diversity of the virus in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is essential as genotypes in this region (where very few clinical trials have been carried out) are distinct from those found in other parts of the world. We undertook a population-based, nested case-control study in Uganda and obtained additional samples from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to estimate the prevalence of HCV, assess strategies for disease detection using serological and molecular techniques, and characterize genetic diversity of the virus. Using next-generation and Sanger sequencing, we aimed to identify strains circulating in East and Central Africa. A total of 7,751 Ugandan patients were initially screened for HCV, and 20 PCR-positive samples were obtained for sequencing. Serological assays were found to vary significantly in specificity for HCV. HCV strains detected in Uganda included genotype (g) 4k, g4p, g4q, and g4s and a newly identified unassigned g7 HCV strain. Two additional unassigned g7 strains were identified in patients originating from DRC (one partial and one full open reading frame sequence). These g4 and g7 strains contain nonstructural (ns) protein 3 and 5A polymorphisms associated with resistance to DAAs in other genotypes. Clinical studies are therefore indicated to investigate treatment response in infected patients. Conclusion: Although HCV prevalence and genotypes have been well characterized in patients in well-resourced countries, clinical trials are urgently required in SSA, where highly diverse g4 and g7 strains circulate.