STOCK MARKET REACTION TO ANTICIPATED VERSUS SURPRISE RATING CHANGES
In: The journal of financial research: the journal of the Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 301-320
ISSN: 1475-6803
AbstractI examine whether bond rating changes can be anticipated by investors and test whether the stock price reaction to the eventual change varies as a result. All else equal, the market reaction to changes that could have been easily predicted should be significantly smaller than the reaction to changes that are largely a surprise. Although rating upgrades prove difficult to predict, approximately 20% of downgrades can be correctly predicted using a relatively small number of publicly available variables. There is no significant difference between the stock price reaction to anticipated versus unanticipated rating changes.