Mining the past to determine the future: Comments
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 25, Heft 3, S. 452-455
ISSN: 0169-2070
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 25, Heft 3, S. 452-455
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: British Journal of Political Science, Band 28, Heft 1, S. 185-222
In: Research Strategies in the Social Sciences, S. 156-186
In: British journal of political science, Band 28, Heft 1, S. 201-209
ISSN: 0007-1234
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 39, Heft 2, S. 201-212
ISSN: 1467-9485
In: The Economic Journal, Band 102, Heft 412, S. 497
In: The Economic Journal, Band 95, Heft 377, S. 189
In: Journal of international trade & economic development: an international and comparative review, Band 3, Heft 2, S. 147-163
ISSN: 1469-9559
In: Past and present publications
In: Past and Present publications
In: The Manchester School, Band 73, Heft s1, S. 32-57
ISSN: 1467-9957
Conventional wisdom has it that Tobin's Q cannot help explain aggregate investment. However, the standard linearized present‐value asset price decomposition suggests that it should be able to predict other variables, such as stock returns. Using a new data set for the UK, we find that Q has strong predictive power for debt accumulation, stock returns and UK business investment. The correctly signed results on both returns and investment appear to be robust, and are supported by the commonly used and bootstrapped standard error corrections, as well as recently developed asymptotic corrections.
In: The Manchester School, Band 72, Heft s1, S. 72-93
ISSN: 1467-9957
Theory tells us that output, the capital stock and the user cost of capital are related. From the capital accumulation identity, it also follows that the capital stock and investment have a long‐run proportional relationship. The dynamic structure thus implies a multicointegrating framework, in which separate cointegrating relationships are identifiable. This has been used to justify the estimation of investment equations embodying a reduced‐form long‐run relationship between investment and output (rather than between the capital stock and output). In this paper, a new investment equation is estimated in the full structural framework, exploiting a measure of the capital stock constructed by the Bank, and a long series for the cost of capital. A constant elasticity of substitution production function is assumed, and a well‐determined estimate of the elasticity of substitution is obtained by a variety of measures. The robust result is that the elasticity of substitution is significantly different from unity (the Cobb–Douglas case), at about 0.45. Overidentifying restrictions on the long‐run relationship are all accepted. Thus there is strong evidence for a significant effect from the user cost of capital.
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 48, Heft 4, S. 383-399
ISSN: 1467-9485
This paper tests for the influence of political instability on UK economic growth between 1961 and 1997. We construct six variables that quantify political instability and examine the effect on growth. The results suggest that there is a strong link. GARCH‐M models reveal negative effects of instability on growth and positive effects on growth uncertainty. Uncertainty in itself does not affect growth.
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 48, Heft 4, S. 383-399
ISSN: 0036-9292
This paper tests for the influence of political instability on UK economic growth between 1961 & 1997. We construct six variables that quantify political instability & examine the effect on growth. The results suggest that there is a strong link. GARCH-M models reveal negative effects of instability on growth & positive effects on growth uncertainty. Uncertainty in itself does not affect growth. 7 Tables, 1 Figure, 47 References. Adapted from the source document.
In: Public choice, Band 95, Heft 1-2, S. 131-148
ISSN: 0048-5829