This research attempts to use Black-Schole-Merton (BSM) model based on market approach to predict default probability of publishing bank in Indonesia. This is done by using stock prices and financial report. In this effort, this study estimates the neutral risk and default probability for the publish bank. The result showed that option model can predict default status more with accurate event long before default information was published for public. It can be studied from the case of Bank Century that has been imposed as a failure bank, in which it is known as bailout bank by the Indonesian government. The model does not only provide the ordinal ranking for the bank sample but also the good early warning prediction for the public. The probability estimation based on the option model can be an innovative model to measure and manage credit risk on the future for predicting probability default in Indonesia.
Criminal Law to deal with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) is under the spotlight during the handling of the pandemic. Criminal Law is intended to be used when the patient's moral responsibility to declare that he has been abroad having not been fulfilled, and the government's health protocols are ignored. Meanwhile, various laws for Covid-19 pandemic treatment does not provide strict norms; on the contrary, it is sometimes using blanket offence formulation. This study explores the limits of Administrative Criminal Law in the health sector and pandemic management to impose penalties for health protocols violation. Using the normative systematic interpretation method, the study results show no difference formulation of criminal law norms in special laws, which are administrative with criminal law norms in special laws. However, the difference exists within the theoretical realm. Administrative criminal law is not aimed at free individuals and is not socially and psychologically illegal. Still, it is aimed at humans as players of particular roles required to conform with other forms of action according to their role. Unfortunately, administrative criminal law exists outside the Criminal Code, primarily aimed at freeing individuals and socially and psychologically illegal. Law enforcement practices cannot provide a gradation for these two groups of laws—conditions where the fundamental rights of citizens are threatened by the power to impose penalties. This study proposes broadening justification and excuse in the Indonesian Criminal Code, which is appropriate for the character of administrative criminal law.Keywords: Blanket Offence Formulation; Excuse; Justification AbstrakHukum Pidana untuk Penanganan Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) menjadi sorotan selama penanganan pandemi. Hukum Pidana dimaksudkan untuk digunakan ketika tanggung jawab moral pasien untuk menyatakan bahwa ia telah di luar negeri belum terpenuhi, dan protokol kesehatan pemerintah diabaikan. Sementara itu, berbagai undang-undang ...
