Suchergebnisse

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic is ineluctable, transmission that originated from a foreign country became the local transmission in Indonesia. As several regional authorities implemented a large-scale social restriction policy to reduce the transmission of COVID-19, the Nganjuk Regency government chose to implement a different strategy with the implementation of Regent Regulation number 28 of 2020 about novel practice in the COVID-19 pandemic situation. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the impact of the implementation of the regulation on COVID-19 transmissibility and mortality at the Nganjuk Regency. Methods: Data were collected from the daily confirmed cases and death of COVID-19 made accessible for the public by the Nganjuk Regency Task Force for COVID-19 and Nganjuk Regency Health Office starting from March 30th to September 20th. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to estimate the impact of the implementation of regent regulation on COVID-19 transmission and mortality parameters. Result: The trend of new confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the Nganjuk Regency continued to fluctuate before and even after the implementation of regent regulation. It was found that there were reductions in case of fatality rates by -0.002 ± 0.003 (ρ 0.002) on CFR and -0.008 ± 0.008 (ρ 0.007) on eCFR after the regent regulation was implemented but there was no significant reduction on COVID-19 transmissibility parameter. Conclusion: Implementation of regent regulation in Nganjuk Regency significantly affected the reduction of case fatality rate but failed to slow down the COVID-19 transmissibility. Intensive community engagement to comply with the health preventive measures should be considered as an effective preventive strategy to reduce the transmission of COVID-19.

Introduction:
This study was aimed to analyze the effectiveness of the emergency activity restriction policy implementation to slow down the daily incidence and mortality of COVID-19 in the East Java Province of Indonesia.


Methods:
An ecological study design was used for this research as the data were acquired from the daily confirmed cases and mortality reports of COVID-19 in 29 regencies and 9 cities in East Java Province of Indonesia from June 14 to July 25, 2021. Interrupted time series using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used for the analysis.


Results:
The mean of COVID-19 daily incidence and mortality was increasing during the implementation of emergency public activity restriction. The result of the ARIMA interrupted time series reported that the implementation of emergency public activity restriction significantly (P < 0.05) affects the increase of COVID-19 daily incidence in 18 cities and daily mortality in 9 cities. Analysis on the provincial level showed that there was no reduction both in daily incidence and mortality during the implementation of emergency public activity restriction.


Conclusion:
The study reported that the implementation of emergency public activity restrictions was not beneficial in reducing COVID-19 daily incidence and mortality in the East Java Province of Indonesia during the 1st month of policy implementation.