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The main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very instrument with which society tries to reduce the reigning uncertainty that, paradoxically, can ultimately drive uncertainty up. Our results show that the prediction error for the new emerging parties is significantly higher than for the traditional parties and this error is not sensitive to solutions for increasing the reliability of surveys, such as increasing sample size, transparency constantly conducting periodical surveys, the closeness of the approaching election or the survey mode that is used. It can be observed that pollsters do not want to make predictions that vary greatly from the average of the other polls. Finally, editorial bias appears to play a significant role, especially in the case of traditional parties. ; El principal objetivo de este artículo es explicar por qué las encuestas electorales cometen más errores en épocas de crisis económica, inestabilidad política y con partidos emergentes como Podemos y Ciudadanos. Para ello utilizamos una base de datos de 226 encuestas previas a las elecciones generales españolas de 2016. En este contexto, paradójicamente vemos como el instrumento que la sociedad utiliza para reducir su incertidumbre puede acabar aumentándola. Nuestros resultados muestran como el error de predicción de los nuevos partidos es significativamente mayor que los tradicionales e insensible a las soluciones clásicas para aumentar la precisión de las encuestas, como el tamaño de la muestra, el método de muestreo, la experiencia del encuestador, o la proximidad de la cita electoral. Además, se observa que las empresas que desarrollan las encuestas realizan de forma sistemática predicciones muy próximas a las que han realizado las encuestas recientes de sus competidores. Finalmente, el sesgo editorial parece ser una variable relevante, especialmente en lo relativo a las predicciones de los partidos tradicionales

Wind energy is one of the renewable energies which have less adverse environmental impact and is becoming economically affordable long before several other renewable energies. Over recent years, substantial additions have been noted in wind energy capacity, although many differences can be observed between countries. Using the latest available data, this paper provides a concise analysis of wind energy and electricity consumption trends for the period 1990–2014 in a dual perspective, by principal world regions and by per capita gross national income levels in 2014. Electricity consumption has been divided into three types of energy: non-renewable, renewable excluding wind and wind energy. Annual rates of change, energy intensity, energy in per capita terms and some ratios have been analyzed. Notable regional differences and trends are observed in the studied variables. The first 15 European Union countries, other developed countries (ODC) and East Asian (EAS) and South Asian countries (SAS) are the regions which currently have the highest wind capacity. ; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ECO2014 – 56399-R