Suchergebnisse

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement num. 773297

Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicit modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. The estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of proposed Amber box reductions on fishing subsidies and the relatively smaller GDP contribution result in negative CAP budgetary impacts on regional income. In contrast, France, Germany and the UK all realise small real income gains. ; Los estudios de equilibrio general (EG) que examinan el impacto de las propuestas de la Ronda Doha se han centrado en la Unión Europea (UE) como un agregado. Partiendo de un escenario base detallado y un resultado plausible de las negociaciones de Doha, se examinan los costes a largo plazo para la UE, con especial énfasis en España. Se examinan además, las recientes reformas de la PAC para proporcionar una mayor credibilidad a la estimación de los efectos presupuestarios y sobre el bienestar de los países miembros. En España, el modelo predice una reorientación de los recursos desde el sector agro-alimentario hacia el manufacturero y de servicios. Asimismo, el impacto de la reducción en la caja Ámbar sobre los susbsidios a la pesca y la relativamente menor contribución al PIB conducen a impactos negativos del presupuesto de la PAC sobre la renta regional. Por el contrario, Francia, Alemania y el Reino Unido se benefician de pequeñas ganancias reales en renta.

[EN] Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicit modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. The estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of proposed Amber box reductions on fishing subsidies and the relatively smaller GDP contribution result in negative CAP budgetary impacts on regional income. In contrast, France, Germany and the UK all realise small real income gains. ; [ES] Los estudios de equilibrio general (EG) que examinan el impacto de las propuestas de la Ronda Doha se han centrado en la Unión Europea (UE) como un agregado. Partiendo de un escenario base detallado y un resultado plausible de las negociaciones de Doha, se examinan los costes a largo plazo para la UE, con especial énfasis en España. Se examinan además, las recientes reformas de la PAC para proporcionar una mayor credibilidad a la estimación de los efectos presupuestarios y sobre el bienestar de los países miembros. En España, el modelo predice una reorientación de los recursos desde el sector agro-alimentario hacia el manufacturero y de servicios. Asimismo, el impacto de la reducción en la caja Ámbar sobre los susbsidios a la pesca y la relativamente menor contribución al PIB conducen a impactos negativos del presupuesto de la PAC sobre la renta regional. Por el contrario, Francia, Alemania y el Reino Unido se benefician de pequeñas ganancias reales en renta. ; Philippidis, G. (2005). Agricultural trade liberalisation in the ...

The EU Bioeconomy Strategy, updated in 2018, in its Action Plan pledges an EU-wide, internationally coherent monitoring system to track economic, environmental and social progress towards a sustainable bioeconomy. This paper presents the approach taken by the European Commission's (EC) Joint Research Centre (JRC) to develop such a system. To accomplish this, we capitalise on (1) the experiences of existing indicator frameworks; (2) stakeholder knowledge and expectations; and (3) national experiences and expertise. This approach is taken to ensure coherence with other bioeconomy-related European monitoring frameworks, the usefulness for decision-making and consistency with national and international initiatives to monitor the bioeconomy. We develop a conceptual framework, based on the definition of a sustainable bioeconomy as stated in the Strategy, for a holistic analysis of the trends in the bioeconomy sectors, following the three pillars of sustainability (economy, society and environment). From this conceptual framework, we derive an implementation framework that aims to highlight the synergies and trade-offs across the five objectives of the Bioeconomy Strategy in a coherent way. The EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System will be publicly available on the web platform of the EC Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy. ; Published

There is a paucity of quantitative impact assessments of the sectorial and macroeconomic impacts of CAP budget reform for EU member states. To fill this gap, the current study employs a sophisticated agricultural variant of the GTAP model to evaluate the recently agreed CAP spending limits for the financial period 2014–2020 as well as a more radical 50% cut to the CAP budget proposed by the UK government. The study incorporates methodological innovation in terms of the modelling of CAP budgetary mechanisms. Furthermore, official EU auditing statistics are employed to (i) greatly improve the existing representation of agricultural support payments in the GTAP benchmark data and (ii) implement a detailed contemporary CAP baseline for member states to capture both the decoupled/coupled split of support payments and the distribution of support across both 'pillars'. In general, CAP expenditure cuts have muted impacts on EU and world agricultural markets; whereas changes in net transfer payments have implications for real income and macro trade balances in EU member states. This observation is particularly pertinent when assessing conciliatory reductions in the UK rebate in exchange for deeper CAP budget cuts. ; Published

Employing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Spanish economy, this study aims to characterise the potential impact of Kyoto and European Union environmental policy targets on the Spanish economy up to 2020, with a focus on the agricultural sector. The model code is modified to characterise the emissions trading scheme (ETS), emissions quotas and carbon taxes, whilst emissions reductions are applied to all six registered greenhouse gases (GHGs). As extensions to this work, the study attempts to integrate the use of 'Marginal Abatement Cost' (MAC) curves for emissions reductions within the agricultural sector, and econometric estimates of the effects of global warming on land productivity in Spain.

In its revised bioeconomy strategy, the European Union (EU) has extended the scope of activities to include services. Employing an output-based approach, this study quantifies the contribution of bioeconomy services to gross domestic product and employment in the EU Member States over 2008–2017. Moreover, it also identifies the main sectoral sources of employment and growth within bioeconomy services. The choice of Eurostat statistics ensures data harmonisation across countries and continuity for future updates, although important data needs are identified to enhance the representation of bioeconomy services within European statistical frameworks. In 2015–2017, economic growth was stronger in bioeconomy services than in the total EU economy. Bioeconomy services accounted for between 5.0–8.6% and 10.2–16.9% of EU gross domestic product and the EU labour force, respectively, whilst three service sectors account for more than 60% of bioeconomy services employment and value added. Interestingly, in the decade up to 2017, labour productivity in bioeconomy services improved.

In its revised bioeconomy strategy, the European Union (EU) has extended the scope of activities to include services. Employing an output-based approach, this study quantifies the contribution of bioeconomy services to gross domestic product and employment in the EU Member States over 2008–2017. Moreover, it also identifies the main sectoral sources of employment and growth within bioeconomy services. The choice of Eurostat statistics ensures data harmonisation across countries and continuity for future updates, although important data needs are identified to enhance the representation of bioeconomy services within European statistical frameworks. In 2015–2017, economic growth was stronger in bioeconomy services than in the total EU economy. Bioeconomy services accounted for between 5.0–8.6% and 10.2–16.9% of EU gross domestic product and the EU labour force, respectively, whilst three service sectors account for more than 60% of bioeconomy services employment and value added. Interestingly, in the decade up to 2017, labour productivity in bioeconomy services improved.

This study evaluates the performance of European Union (EU) member state biobased activities. More specifically, statistical clustering techniques, based on biobased sectors' demand and supply driven multipliers, identify regional EU typologies of biobased sector performance. The aim is to establish sector-region combinations of biobased driven economic growth. The study employs a consistent macroeconomic accounting dataset, known as a social accounting matrix (SAM). The dataset (dubbed BioSAM), is enriched with detailed accounts for agrifood activities, as well as further contemporary sources and uses of biomass. The results identify cases where biobased activities are potentially important engines of growth, although this result varies considerably by EU region. Confirming previous literature, the influence of biobased sectors is very much dominated by demand driven economic growth, whilst one-in-three biobased activities is defined as 'key'. Examining the regional EU cluster typologies, the 'Eastern and Mediterranean' region exhibits the strongest biobased wealth generation, whilst weak biobased economic performance is observed in the 'Mediterranean Islands and Luxembourg' regional cluster. Finally, a comparison with previous studies tentatively confirms that structural change, accelerated by the financial crisis, has elevated the relative economy-wide contribution of biobased sectors. ; Published

The bioeconomy comprises sectors that use renewable biological resources to produce food, materials and energy. It is at the centre of several global and EU challenges in the near future such as the creation of growth and jobs, climate change, food security and resource depletion. "Bioeconomy 2030†projects a reference scenario ('business as usual') and compares it with two distinct policy narratives ('Outward-looking' and 'Inward-looking') to understand the drivers of EU's bioeconomy up to 2030, assess its resilience to fulfil such diverse policy goals and identify potential trade-offs. As a motor of jobs and growth, the results indicate that the importance of the bio-based sectors is expected to dwindle somewhat. The factors underlying this result are mainly structural and related to comparably lower macroeconomic growth rates in the EU. It is, however, conceivable that improved economic development or productivity improvements linked to EU investments in, for instance bio-based innovation, would produce a recognisably more optimistic outlook for the EU bioeconomy. ; Published

European agricultural market support and direct payments amount to 44 billion Euros in 2012 – of which farm subsidies represent 40 billion euros. Rural development measures add 13 billion Euros to the European Union (EU) budget devoted to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). As a total, roughly 40 per cent of the EU budget aims at funding this sector-based policy. Whereas a CAP reform is expected for the period post-2013, an agreement on the 2014-2020 EU financial framework shall be reached before then. This paper attempts to capture the implications for the EU and third countries of resource reallocations in the CAP budget provision for the period 2014-2020. It employs a sophisticated dynamic variant of the GTAP model, known as the Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model. Given the focus on agri-food markets, a number of additional modelling features are incorporated to capture the peculiarities of agricultural factor markets (e.g. endogenous land supply, heterogeneous land usage; agricultural/non-agricultural factor split) and agricultural policy (e.g. decoupled payments, rural development support). Of particular importance to this study is the comparatively detailed treatment of the CAP budget, with coverage of first and second pillar, where the latter explicitly characterises between five distinct rural development measures (i.e. physical investment, human capacity, agri-environmental, less favoured areas, and wider rural development). Finally, the 'own resources' component of the European budget is also modelled, with associated rebate mechanisms, in order to consider the political economy of European budgetary reform. ; CGE ; common agricultural policy ; European budget ; trade ; Published