Suchergebnisse

Over the last decade, much controversy has surrounded the usage of genetically modified organism (GMO) technology in commercial agriculture. More specifically, it is feared that GMOs may introduce new allergens into the food chain or contribute to antibiotic resistance. At the current time, the European Union (EU) adopts a zero tolerance policy toward "non-approved" GMO imports, whilst the approval process has not kept pace with the proliferation of new GMO varieties. In the EU livestock sectors, this apparent mis-match threatens to interrupt supplies of high protein feed inputs (e.g., soymeal) from countries with more relaxed regulations regarding GMOs. Employing a well known multi-region computable general equilibrium framework, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of a hypothetical EU import ban on unapproved GMO varieties of soybean and maize imports on livestock, meat and dairy sectors. The model code is heavily modified to improve the characterisation of the agricultural sectors and land usage, whilst a realistic baseline is employed to update the global database to 2008, the year the hypothetical ban is implemented. In the "worst case" scenario, there are significant competitive losses in EU livestock, meat and dairy sectors. In Spain, the negative impacts are particularly pronounced given the importance of pig production in agriculture. In contrast, all non-EU regions' trade balances improve, with notable trade gains in the USA and Brazil. To conclude, the EU must urgently find a long term strategy for GMOs if it is to reconcile political expediency with pragmatic economic concerns. ; El uso de organismos genéticamente modificados (OMGs) en los sectores agro-ganaderos ha desatado mucha polémica. En particular, se teme que puedan introducir nuevos alérgenos dentro de la cadena agroalimentaria, o subir el nivel de tolerancia hacia los antibióticos. Actualmente, la Unión Europea (UE) aplica tolerancia cero hacia las importaciones de OMGs "no-aprobados", aunque la tasa de aprobación no se mantiene en paridad con la proliferación de nuevas variantes de OMGs. En la UE, este desajuste podría interrumpir los suministros de piensos con alto contenido proteico desde los países que aceptan el uso de OMGs. En este estudio se emplea un modelo de equilibrio general computable mundial, para analizar el impacto de una prohibición hipotética de las importaciones de soja y maíz transgénicos no-aprobados sobre los sectores ganaderos con orientación cárnica y láctea. Se modifica intensamente el modelo para reflejar con más precisión el sector agrario y el uso de la tierra. Además, se emplea un "baseline" realista para actualizar la economía global hasta 2008, año en que se implanta la prohibición. En el peor escenario planteado, se dan pérdidas grandes en los sectores ganaderos, tanto de carne como de leche, en la UE, mientras en España el impacto es peor debido a la importancia del sector de porcino. En contraste, terceros países experimentan ganancias en sus balanzas comerciales, especialmente EEUU y Brasil. En conclusión, la UE debe adoptar una estrategia sobre los OMGs para reconciliar las amenazas económicas potenciales sobre los sectores ganaderos con las preocupaciones sanitarias.

In the context of the Doha Development Round, the vast majority of computable general equilibrium studies examine agricultural trade led gains to developing countries, whilst European Union based studies are scarce and only one assessment exists in the case of Spain. This study also focuses on Spain, whilst developing the literature in two ways. Firstly, a more realistic representation of the agriculture sector is undertaken through modelling improvements to agricultural factor-, input- and product markets. Secondly, the policy scenarios now account for tariff "binding overhangs", thereby better reflecting the true level of market access from a potential agreement, whilst the trade led impacts are examined from the inclusion of "sensitive" product lines within the harmonised tariff formula. Through careful scenario design, protection and support reforms are implemented in three "Doha" experiments to reflect the current negotiations, each with different levels of tariff reductions (i.e., market access). Spain experiences equivalent variation (EV) losses in all scenarios reflecting shallower tariff reductions from the tariff binding overhangs, whilst EV losses are minimised when agro-food market access is increased due to allocative efficiency improvements. The size of the predicted EV losses are "broadly" in line with the literature, although specified modelling changes to the agricultural sectors result in a different set of conclusions with respect to price, output and trade balance trends. Finally, in our "likely" Doha scenario including sensitive tariff lines, potential global trade gains are severely limited whilst Spanish welfare losses are maximised. ; En el contexto de la Ronda de Doha, la mayoría de estudios se concentra en los beneficios derivados del comercio agrario para los países en desarrollo. Los estudios sobre la Unión Europea son escasos, y el único artículo existente sobre España es el que intentamos mejorar en el presente estudio. Primero, mejoramos la modelización de los mercados de inputs, factores y productos, para representar el sector agrario de forma más realista. Segundo, los escenarios contemplan el excedente de consolidación de arancel aduanero para aproximar mejor el nivel real de apertura de los mercados. Además, también examinamos los efectos derivados de la inclusión de los productos "sensibles" dentro de la fórmula arancelaria. Mediante un diseño cuidadoso, aplicamos las reformas sobre protección y apoyo en tres experimentos que reflejan las negociaciones en curso. España experimenta pérdidas en variación equivalente (EV) en todos los escenarios, como resultado del escaso impacto de la apertura de mercados a consecuencia del elevado excedente de consolidación de arancel aduanero. Las pérdidas se minimizan cuando se incrementa la apertura de los mercados gracias a mejoras en la eficiencia asignativa. La magnitud de las pérdidas en EV se aproxima, en general, a la literatura existente, aunque los cambios en la caracterización de los mercados agrícolas en nuestro modelo revelan tendencias distintas por lo que respecta a precios, producciones y balanzas comerciales. Por último, en el escenario en el que se incluyen aranceles de productos "sensibles", el potencial de beneficios globales se ve seriamente limitado, mientras que las pérdidas de bienestar en España se maximizan.

This book examines selected pertinent topics on issues relating to current and future EU developments. In its initial sections, the book focuses on an array of wide ranging micro (agriculture, industry and competition) and macro (EMU, regional convergence and enlargement) issues. A final section is reserved for discussion on Britain's future relationship with the EU. In particular, the book posits possible alternative strategies (e.g. NAFTA membership and policy frameworks) and examines these from both a theoretical and empirical perspective.

With the rise of anti-free-trade sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic, there is a growing urgency by trade negotiators to conclude the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations. The harmonisation of non-tariff restrictions is a key component of the talks, whilst global modelling databases typically lack a price compatible representation of these measures, which lends a degree of bias to ex-ante modelling assessments. In the gravity literature, there is (limited) evidence of non-tariff ad-valorem equivalent (AVE) estimates of agriculture and food, although disaggregated agri-food activities and/or bilateral EU-US route specific estimates are still in relatively short supply. Using panel data, this study consolidates both of these issues, whilst also proposing an 'indirect' gravity method as a basis upon which to provide econometric non-tariff AVE estimates compatible with the degree of sectoral concordance typically found in global modelling databases. On a general note, the results revealed the presence of significant ''behind the border'' trade costs on both sides of the Atlantic, which exceed their tariff counterparts. Using simple aggregated averages, our estimates are comparable with 'direct' gravity method studies. Furthermore, rigorous qualitative and quantitative comparisons on a sector-by-sector basis showed that a number of bilateral non-tariff AVEs are also found to be plausible, although in some cases, with recourse to relevant policy documents and expert opinion, it is debatable whether the EU or the US is more restrictive. Further work could focus on refining the sector specificity of each gravity equation to improve the model's predictive capacity.

Over the last twenty years, the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union has evolved into a multifunctional policy instrument. As part of this transformation, most farmer receipts are paid independently of production, granting this class of payment production-neutral or 'fully decoupled' status. In prospective agricultural market studies, simulation models routinely represent these payments as decoupled, despite academic evidence to the contrary that posits a number of 'coupling-channels'. To explore the ramifications of differing degrees of coupling on the three pillars of sustainability, a natural-resources focused simulation model is employed. Comparing with a 'standard' decoupled baseline to 2030, higher coupling increases global agricultural employment and reduces production intensity on European Union agricultural land and agricultural emissions. Higher coupling also diminishes the Common Agricultural Policy's capacity as a safety-net for European Union food-security and agricultural employment, whilst there is tentative evidence of increasing emissions 'leakage'. At the very least, if the non-distorting status of decoupled payments is mis-specified, this has direct implications for the design of greener policy initiatives under the auspices of the Green Deal that promote sustainable fairer trade. As a result, further empirical research on the production distorting effects of the European Union's decoupled payments is needed.

Employing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Spanish economy, this study explicitly aims to characterise the potential impact of Kyoto and European Union environmental policy targets on specific agricultural activities up to 2020. The model code is modified to characterise the emissions trading scheme (ETS), emissions quotas and carbon taxes, whilst emissions reductions are applied to all six registered greenhouse gases (GHGs). Compared to a 'business-as-usual' baseline scenario, by 2020, GDP and employment fall 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively, whilst the retail price index rises 3.4%. In agriculture, the indices of output (4.3% fall), and supply price (7.7% rise) perform relatively worse, whilst there is a concomitant cumulative fall in aggregate farm incomes of €1,510 million by 2020. The more notable impact in agriculture is attributed to its relatively higher emissions intensity. Consequently, we record an agricultural marginal abatement cost estimate of €86 ton-1 of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is consistent with other estimates in the literature. In addition, we find that the optimal mix of emissions reductions across specific agricultural sectors is a function of the degree of substitutability of their emitting activities. In light of estimated income losses within the strategically important farm sector, a final simulation contemplates an 'agricultural cost-neutral' emissions reduction policy akin to a cross compliance payment between 2013 and 2020. This is found to reduce food price rises, whilst altering the optimum mix of agricultural emissions reductions across specific agricultural activities. ; Empleando un modelo dinámico recursivo de equilibrio general computable (EGC) de la economía española, este estudio analiza el impacto de las políticas medioambientales de Kioto y de la Unión Europea (el acuerdo '20/20/20'), sobre distintas actividades agrarias hasta 2020. En comparación con el escenario de referencia, se pronostican caídas en el PIB y el empleo de un 2,1% y 2,4%, respectivamente, en 2020, mientras que el índice de precios al consumo sube un 3,4%. En agricultura, el índice de producción (que cae un 4,3%) y el de precios (aumenta un 7,7%), empeoran y además los ingresos acumulados de los agricultores bajan 1.510 millones de euros en 2020. El impacto más acusado en el sector agrario se atribuye a la mayor intensidad de sus emisiones donde se estima un coste marginal de reducción de 86 € t-1 de CO2 equivalente para 2020, lo cual es consistente con las estimaciones existentes en la bibliografía. Además se observa que la combinación óptima de reducción de emisiones en los diferentes sectores agrarios depende del grado de sustitución de las actividades emisoras. A la vista de las pérdidas de ingresos observadas en el sector agrario, se contempla un escenario de mitigación de coste-cero para los agricultores, semejante a un pago de condicionalidad, entre 2013 y 2020. Los resultados señalan una mitigación en el incremento de los precios de los alimentos y una redistribución en la combinación óptima de las emisiones en los sectores agrarios.

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.