Suchergebnisse

AbstractThe objective of this article is to investigate whether remittances sent to Macedonia have a role to play for shielding vulnerable households, by highlighting the importance of a strictly exogenous instrument in an IV context. Results suggest that remittance‐receiving households have, on average, a 20.1 per cent lower vulnerability than non‐receiving ones. However, if one has a reasonable belief that vulnerability and the instrument are determined simultaneously, or are directly correlated due to the existence of a third unobservable factor, then the shielding effect of remittances for vulnerable households remains up to the ninth percentage of direct influence and with a reducing magnitude, and then disappears.

AbstractMacedonia receives about 10 per cent of GDP as cash remittances per year while a third of the population faces poverty. The study aims to investigate whether remittances improve the poverty and health of individual remittance‐receivers in Macedonia. To that end, we rely on the 2008 Remittances' Survey and a sequential structural model linking remittances to social indicators. We find that remittances have a significant effect oto consumption, in particular health consumption, hence contribute to reducing poverty. In turn, improved health consumption significantly reduces the incidence of bad health among receivers. This finding lends support to the claim that remittances serve an informal social protection in Macedonia.

This paper aims at forecasting the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Kosovo, using a qualitative forecasting method, a Delphi questionnaire. The authors examined consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and twenty remittance receivers per country, in three subsequent rounds–two on the same group and a third cross-round. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With less consensus, the results forecast that emigration will decelerate, except in Serbia. Emigration effects for the society have been forecast as predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecast to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania. Consensus has been reached, except in Macedonia, that remittances will support labour market activity.